# Blackstone Group (BX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-01T09:06:21.196Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed. Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $109.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $12.57 per share, central $13.87 per share, high $15.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value $13.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-01T09:06:21.196Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.7% at the stated quote. About 3.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.53×

- FY2017: 0.69×

- FY2018: 0.59×

- FY2019: 0.60×

- FY2020: 0.48×

- FY2021: 0.80×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: 0.40×

- FY2024: 0.57×

- FY2025: 0.52×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 25.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 19.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.7 pp

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 19.0%

- FY2017: 19.0%

- FY2018: 26.2%

- FY2019: 25.9%

- FY2020: 24.9%

- FY2021: 87.6%

- FY2022: 20.1%

- FY2023: 17.1%

- FY2024: 32.7%

- FY2025: 34.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.17×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $15B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -4.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -27.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -4.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.05×

- FY2022: 0.37×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.30×

- FY2025: 0.35×

### management: fail

- $1 retained earnings test: 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.0% vs 32.7%

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Market cap gain: $103B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$2.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 11.0%

- Per-share value change: $2.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.57

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.61

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.19

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $328M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $22B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 32.7%

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 2.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 104.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.62×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.23×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.3%

- FY2017: 9.0%

- FY2018: 5.2%

- FY2019: 0.3%

- FY2020: -3.4%

- FY2021: 4.5%

- FY2022: -10.8%

- FY2023: -6.6%

- FY2024: -1.6%

- FY2025: 2.4%

## Holders

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 42% since Nov 2024 · "Blackstone indicated it saw higher-than-expected redemption requests at its flagship private credit fund." (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +21.6%

Story as of 2026-10-03T17:10:00Z; price observation 2026-10-02.

Price needs cash profits to grow 31.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-24: Blackstone Results Pop on Higher Fees, Assets Under Management ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-results-pop-higher-fees-154350729.html))

- 2026-07-23: Blackstone Profits Jump, Boosted by Exits and Winning Bets on AI ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/blackstone-profits-jump-boosted-exits-105643641.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +21.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526082531/d48618d10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $4.5B 

- FY2017: $6.0B 

- FY2018: $6.0B 

- FY2019: $6.4B 

- FY2020: $5.4B 

- FY2021: $17B 

- FY2022: $7.4B 

- FY2023: $7.4B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $14B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 86%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526082531/d48618d10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 96.6% 

- FY2017: 96.7% 

- FY2018: 97.2% 

- FY2019: 96.9% 

- FY2020: 96.9% 

- FY2021: 98.8% 

- FY2022: 95.7% 

- FY2023: 94.2% 

- FY2024: 96.1% 

- FY2025: 86.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-02T06:52:09.009Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 13.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526082531/d48618d10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 13828896000; grossProfit 11899653000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); BX.US: Blackstone Inc. is an alternative asset management firm specializing in private equity, venture capital, real estate, hedge fund solutions, credit, secondary funds of funds, public debt and equity and multi-asset class strategies. The firm typically invests in early-stage, seed, middle market, mature, late venture, growth capital, emerging growth, turnaround, and later stage companies. It also provide capital markets services. The real estate segment specializes in opportunistic, core+ investments as well as debt investment opportunities collateralized by commercial real estate, and stabilized income-oriented commercial real estate across North America, Europe and Asia. Within fund of fund investments, it seeks to invest in private equity funds, venture capital funds, mezzanine funds, distressed debt/turnaround funds, secondary investment funds & real estate funds. The firm's corporate private equity business pursues transactions throughout the world across a variety of transaction types, including large buyouts, recapitalization, special situations, distressed mortgage loans, mid-cap buyouts, buy and build platforms, which involves multiple acquisitions behind a single management team and platform, and growth equity/development projects involving significant majority stakes in portfolio companies and minority investments in operating companies, shipping, real estate, corporate or consumer loans, and alternative energy greenfield development projects in energy and power, property, dislocated markets, shipping opportunities, financial institution breakups, re-insurance, and improving freight mobility, financial services, cargo, data processing, oil & gas production, oil & gas refining, oil & gas storage, building products, home entertainment, B2B, consumer electronics, home supply store, lodging, commercial services & supplies, metal & mineral mining machinery, coal, hazardous waste collection, solid waste collection, waste water treatment, renewable electricity, equity REITs, power generation by nuclear & fossil 

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 86% to 96.1% during 2023–25; it earns 25.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 94.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 96.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526082531/d48618d10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 86%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.18985815770459258],[2017,0.18962393696398713],[2018,0.26159498547042315],[2019,0.2589306653135592],[2020,0.24869809121559763],[2021,0.8759738089742084],[2022,0.2008035207054955],[2023,0.17135082258108386],[2024,0.3268566793717279],[2025,0.34682724147066185]]; median 0.2538143782645784. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 7.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 21826000; owner earnings 776480000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 24347000; owner earnings 1155116000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 18377000; owner earnings 1215504000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 60280000; owner earnings 825946000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 111650000; owner earnings 289179000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 235497000; owner earnings 647943000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 224231000; owner earnings 219175000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 25444000; upkeep 35965000; owner earnings 834609000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.030486131829395562.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526082531/d48618d10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 79804000; upkeep 35899000; owner earnings 1070535000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07454590461778457.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,2018669000],[2017,2842582000],[2018,3046404000],[2019,2396744000],[2020,2385576000],[2021,4602574000],[2022,6518785000],[2023,4268447000],[2024,4424183000],[2025,6013385000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526082531/d48618d10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 312480000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); BX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.038 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-02.

### What could break it

"Our use of borrowings to finance our business exposes us to risks." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526082531/d48618d10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Our use of borrowings to finance our business exposes us to risks.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 31.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 21.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.4454042564553432. Price 112.24; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.18969982530565307 → FY2025 1.3708571822244373. Closing-price date 2026-10-01.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $25.03 per share

- 2016-11: $25.74 per share

- 2016-12: $27.03 per share

- 2017-01: $30.63 per share

- 2017-02: $29.54 per share

- 2017-03: $29.70 per share

- 2017-04: $30.84 per share

- 2017-05: $32.88 per share

- 2017-06: $33.35 per share

- 2017-07: $33.45 per share

- 2017-08: $32.73 per share

- 2017-09: $33.37 per share

- 2017-10: $33.29 per share

- 2017-11: $31.72 per share

- 2017-12: $32.02 per share

- 2018-01: $36.55 per share

- 2018-02: $34.00 per share

- 2018-03: $31.95 per share

- 2018-04: $30.95 per share

- 2018-05: $31.93 per share

- 2018-06: $32.17 per share

- 2018-07: $34.92 per share

- 2018-08: $36.91 per share

- 2018-09: $38.08 per share

- 2018-10: $32.36 per share

- 2018-11: $33.73 per share

- 2018-12: $29.81 per share

- 2019-01: $33.70 per share

- 2019-02: $33.39 per share

- 2019-03: $34.97 per share

- 2019-04: $39.46 per share

- 2019-05: $37.85 per share

- 2019-06: $44.42 per share

- 2019-07: $47.98 per share

- 2019-08: $49.76 per share

- 2019-09: $48.84 per share

- 2019-10: $53.16 per share

- 2019-11: $54.22 per share

- 2019-12: $55.94 per share

- 2020-01: $61.07 per share

- 2020-02: $53.84 per share

- 2020-03: $45.57 per share

- 2020-04: $52.24 per share

- 2020-05: $56.80 per share

- 2020-06: $56.66 per share

- 2020-07: $53.28 per share

- 2020-08: $52.95 per share

- 2020-09: $52.20 per share

- 2020-10: $50.42 per share

- 2020-11: $59.55 per share

- 2020-12: $64.81 per share

- 2021-01: $67.19 per share

- 2021-02: $69.23 per share

- 2021-03: $74.53 per share

- 2021-04: $88.49 per share

- 2021-05: $92.67 per share

- 2021-06: $97.14 per share

- 2021-07: $115.27 per share

- 2021-08: $125.73 per share

- 2021-09: $116.34 per share

- 2021-10: $138.42 per share

- 2021-11: $141.45 per share

- 2021-12: $129.39 per share

- 2022-01: $131.97 per share

- 2022-02: $127.47 per share

- 2022-03: $126.94 per share

- 2022-04: $101.57 per share

- 2022-05: $117.79 per share

- 2022-06: $91.23 per share

- 2022-07: $102.07 per share

- 2022-08: $93.94 per share

- 2022-09: $83.70 per share

- 2022-10: $91.14 per share

- 2022-11: $91.53 per share

- 2022-12: $74.19 per share

- 2023-01: $95.96 per share

- 2023-02: $90.80 per share

- 2023-03: $87.84 per share

- 2023-04: $89.33 per share

- 2023-05: $85.64 per share

- 2023-06: $92.97 per share

- 2023-07: $104.79 per share

- 2023-08: $106.37 per share

- 2023-09: $107.14 per share

- 2023-10: $92.35 per share

- 2023-11: $112.37 per share

- 2023-12: $130.92 per share

- 2024-01: $124.45 per share

- 2024-02: $127.82 per share

- 2024-03: $131.37 per share

- 2024-04: $116.61 per share

- 2024-05: $120.50 per share

- 2024-06: $123.80 per share

- 2024-07: $142.15 per share

- 2024-08: $142.36 per share

- 2024-09: $153.13 per share

- 2024-10: $167.75 per share

- 2024-11: $191.09 per share

- 2024-12: $172.42 per share

- 2025-01: $177.11 per share

- 2025-02: $161.16 per share

- 2025-03: $139.78 per share

- 2025-04: $131.71 per share

- 2025-05: $138.76 per share

- 2025-06: $149.58 per share

- 2025-07: $172.96 per share

- 2025-08: $171.40 per share

- 2025-09: $170.85 per share

- 2025-10: $146.64 per share

- 2025-11: $146.42 per share

- 2025-12: $154.14 per share

- 2026-01: $142.42 per share

- 2026-02: $113.37 per share

- 2026-03: $114.99 per share

- 2026-04: $125.58 per share

- 2026-05: $116.97 per share

- 2026-06: $117.67 per share

- 2026-07: $127.75 per share

- 2026-08: $143.24 per share

- 2026-09: $113.68 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $9.03 per share, central $9.91 per share, high $11.08 per share

- FY2017: low $15.36 per share, central $17.10 per share, high $19.40 per share

- FY2018: low $21.67 per share, central $29.63 per share, high $34.26 per share

- FY2019: low $18.07 per share, central $22.44 per share, high $25.72 per share

- FY2020: low $7.22 per share, central $7.84 per share, high $8.67 per share

- FY2022: low $15.90 per share, central $18.44 per share, high $20.60 per share

- FY2023: low $6.86 per share, central $7.30 per share, high $7.88 per share

- FY2024: low $6.38 per share, central $6.95 per share, high $7.70 per share

- FY2025: low $12.08 per share, central $13.33 per share, high $15.00 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526082531/d48618d10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.