# Conagra Brands (CAG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CAG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:12.564Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $14.18 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $14.80 per share, central $16.80 per share, high $19.46 per share. Buy at or below the central value $16.80 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:12.564Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.4% at the stated quote. About 11.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.91×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- FY2026: -0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 24.3%

- FY2018: 27.2%

- FY2019: 14.0%

- FY2020: 19.6%

- FY2021: 24.4%

- FY2022: 15.5%

- FY2023: 11.7%

- FY2024: 8.3%

- FY2025: 21.2%

- FY2026: -24.3%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -644.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.3% vs 8.3%

- Per-share earnings: 1.47 to 0.72 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: -$10B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$75M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -8.5%

- Per-share value change: -$0.74

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.47

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.72

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.12

- Average buyback yield: 1.8%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $5.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $1.47

- FY2018: $1.98

- FY2019: $1.52

- FY2020: $1.72

- FY2021: $2.66

- FY2022: $1.84

- FY2023: $1.42

- FY2024: $0.72

- FY2025: $2.40

- FY2026: -$4.00

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -19.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.88×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.57×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.3%

- FY2018: -1.4%

- FY2019: -2.0%

- FY2020: -4.5%

- FY2021: -0.8%

- FY2022: -1.3%

- FY2023: -1.4%

- FY2024: -8.0%

- FY2025: -2.6%

- FY2026: -19.2%

## Holders

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 63% since Dec 2022 · "CAG Q3 Deep Dive: Margin Pressures and Simplification Efforts Dominate as Volumes Decline" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales -2.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:27.087Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-12: Conagra faces meaningful headwinds from protein inflation, demand elasticities - BofA Securities ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4457629-conagra-faces-meaningful-headwinds-from-protein-inflation-demand-elasticities?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-07-10: Conagra Brands shares fall as earnings miss, outlook disappoints ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/conagra-brands-shares-fall-earnings-121229306.html))

- 2025-10-01: Conagra’s Profit, Sales Fall as Consumers Cut Back on Snacks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e6ccc07a-0fc1-30c6-8faf-68324507222d/conagra%E2%80%99s-profit%2C-sales-fall.html))

- 2025-12-20: CAG Q4 Deep Dive: Volume Weakness and Margin Pressures Shape Outlook for Conagra ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cag-q4-deep-dive-volume-053044132.html))

- 2026-04-01: Conagra Brands Lowers Earnings Outlook Following Mixed Third-Quarter Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/conagra-brands-lowers-earnings-outlook-153208029.html))

- 2026-07-15: Conagra’s Dividend Cut, Weak Guidance Send the Stock Lower ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d0e54b98-6440-3821-b128-40455ccf5561/conagra%E2%80%99s-dividend-cut%2C-weak.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -2.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23217/000110465926083905/tmb-20260531x10k.htm; observed 2026-07-15.

- FY2017: $7.8B 

- FY2018: $7.9B 

- FY2019: $9.5B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $11B 

- FY2022: $12B 

- FY2023: $12B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $12B 

- FY2026: $11B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 23.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23217/000110465926083905/tmb-20260531x10k.htm; observed 2026-07-15.

- FY2017: 29.9% 

- FY2018: 29.6% 

- FY2019: 27.8% 

- FY2020: 27.8% 

- FY2021: 28.4% 

- FY2022: 24.6% 

- FY2023: 26.6% 

- FY2024: 27.7% 

- FY2025: 25.9% 

- FY2026: 23.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are USD 11.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23217/000110465926083905/tmb-20260531x10k.htm (filed 2026-07-15); FY2026: revenue 11281600000; grossProfit 2698400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CAG.US: Conagra Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a branded consumer packaged goods food company primarily in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. The Grocery & Snacks segment primarily offers shelf stable food products through various retail channels. The Refrigerated & Frozen segment provides temperature-controlled food products through various retail channels. The International segment offers food products in various temperature states through retail and foodservice channels outside of the United States. The Foodservice segment offers branded and customized food products, including meals, entrees, sauces, and various custom-manufactured culinary products packaged for restaurants and other foodservice establishments. The company sells its products under the Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim, and Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP brands. Conagra Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23.9% to 27.7% during 2024–26; it earns 17.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23217/000110465926083905/tmb-20260531x10k.htm (filed 2026-07-15); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 23.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.24303196903078583],[2018,0.27181833131864236],[2019,0.1397015248956376],[2020,0.1962945990720574],[2021,0.24443058545443327],[2022,0.1547460611086212],[2023,0.11714618480482863],[2024,0.0833526307083891],[2025,0.21153164517925774],[2026,-0.24324238470701684]]; median 0.1755203300903393. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 15.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 242100000; owner earnings 665200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 251600000; owner earnings 813800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2019: growth capex 20100000; upkeep 333000000; owner earnings 678300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.029632905793896505.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 369500000; owner earnings 859500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2021: growth capex 28583189.823238075; upkeep 477816810.1767619; owner earnings 1208683189.8232381. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02364820663007498.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2022: growth capex 79051382.49266642; upkeep 385348617.5073336; owner earnings 878251382.4926665. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0900099721657159.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 362200000; owner earnings 691300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 388100000; owner earnings 360000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 389300000; owner earnings 1153300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); Dividend observations: [[2017,415000000],[2018,342300000],[2019,356200000],[2020,413600000],[2021,474600000],[2022,581800000],[2023,623800000],[2024,659300000],[2025,669200000],[2026,669700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23217/000110465926083905/tmb-20260531x10k.htm (filed 2026-07-15); FY2026: cash repurchases 15300000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CAG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.654 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0307365633251811. Price 14.18; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -1.9126567844925884 → FY2026 -4.057620041753654. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $48.18 per share

- 2016-11: $36.69 per share

- 2016-12: $39.55 per share

- 2017-01: $39.09 per share

- 2017-02: $41.21 per share

- 2017-03: $40.34 per share

- 2017-04: $38.78 per share

- 2017-05: $38.54 per share

- 2017-06: $35.76 per share

- 2017-07: $34.24 per share

- 2017-08: $32.46 per share

- 2017-09: $33.74 per share

- 2017-10: $34.16 per share

- 2017-11: $37.33 per share

- 2017-12: $37.67 per share

- 2018-01: $38.00 per share

- 2018-02: $36.13 per share

- 2018-03: $36.88 per share

- 2018-04: $37.07 per share

- 2018-05: $37.06 per share

- 2018-06: $35.73 per share

- 2018-07: $36.71 per share

- 2018-08: $36.75 per share

- 2018-09: $33.97 per share

- 2018-10: $35.60 per share

- 2018-11: $32.34 per share

- 2018-12: $21.36 per share

- 2019-01: $21.64 per share

- 2019-02: $23.37 per share

- 2019-03: $27.74 per share

- 2019-04: $30.78 per share

- 2019-05: $26.77 per share

- 2019-06: $26.52 per share

- 2019-07: $28.87 per share

- 2019-08: $28.36 per share

- 2019-09: $30.68 per share

- 2019-10: $27.05 per share

- 2019-11: $28.87 per share

- 2019-12: $34.24 per share

- 2020-01: $32.92 per share

- 2020-02: $26.69 per share

- 2020-03: $29.34 per share

- 2020-04: $33.44 per share

- 2020-05: $34.79 per share

- 2020-06: $35.17 per share

- 2020-07: $37.45 per share

- 2020-08: $38.36 per share

- 2020-09: $35.71 per share

- 2020-10: $35.09 per share

- 2020-11: $36.56 per share

- 2020-12: $36.26 per share

- 2021-01: $34.60 per share

- 2021-02: $33.93 per share

- 2021-03: $37.60 per share

- 2021-04: $37.09 per share

- 2021-05: $38.10 per share

- 2021-06: $36.38 per share

- 2021-07: $33.49 per share

- 2021-08: $33.12 per share

- 2021-09: $33.87 per share

- 2021-10: $32.20 per share

- 2021-11: $30.55 per share

- 2021-12: $34.15 per share

- 2022-01: $34.76 per share

- 2022-02: $34.97 per share

- 2022-03: $33.57 per share

- 2022-04: $34.93 per share

- 2022-05: $32.89 per share

- 2022-06: $34.24 per share

- 2022-07: $34.21 per share

- 2022-08: $34.38 per share

- 2022-09: $32.63 per share

- 2022-10: $36.70 per share

- 2022-11: $37.98 per share

- 2022-12: $38.70 per share

- 2023-01: $37.19 per share

- 2023-02: $36.41 per share

- 2023-03: $37.56 per share

- 2023-04: $37.96 per share

- 2023-05: $34.87 per share

- 2023-06: $33.72 per share

- 2023-07: $32.81 per share

- 2023-08: $29.88 per share

- 2023-09: $27.42 per share

- 2023-10: $27.36 per share

- 2023-11: $28.29 per share

- 2023-12: $28.66 per share

- 2024-01: $29.15 per share

- 2024-02: $28.08 per share

- 2024-03: $29.64 per share

- 2024-04: $30.78 per share

- 2024-05: $29.88 per share

- 2024-06: $28.42 per share

- 2024-07: $30.32 per share

- 2024-08: $31.20 per share

- 2024-09: $32.52 per share

- 2024-10: $28.94 per share

- 2024-11: $27.55 per share

- 2024-12: $27.75 per share

- 2025-01: $25.89 per share

- 2025-02: $25.54 per share

- 2025-03: $26.67 per share

- 2025-04: $24.71 per share

- 2025-05: $22.89 per share

- 2025-06: $20.47 per share

- 2025-07: $18.26 per share

- 2025-08: $19.13 per share

- 2025-09: $18.31 per share

- 2025-10: $17.19 per share

- 2025-11: $17.85 per share

- 2025-12: $17.31 per share

- 2026-01: $18.51 per share

- 2026-02: $19.25 per share

- 2026-03: $15.72 per share

- 2026-04: $14.35 per share

- 2026-05: $13.28 per share

- 2026-06: $13.46 per share

- 2026-07: $14.51 per share

- 2026-08: $16.02 per share

- 2026-09: $13.44 per share

- 2026-10: $14.18 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $1.12 per share, central $1.24 per share, high $1.41 per share

- FY2018: low $0.98 per share, central $1.11 per share, high $1.29 per share

- FY2019: low $16.74 per share, central $19.04 per share, high $22.09 per share

- FY2020: low $19.91 per share, central $22.56 per share, high $26.09 per share

- FY2021: low $21.33 per share, central $24.31 per share, high $28.23 per share

- FY2022: low $20.33 per share, central $23.13 per share, high $26.87 per share

- FY2023: low $21.25 per share, central $24.18 per share, high $28.08 per share

- FY2024: low $20.89 per share, central $23.77 per share, high $27.61 per share

- FY2025: low $20.27 per share, central $23.22 per share, high $26.97 per share

- FY2026: low $14.50 per share, central $16.49 per share, high $19.15 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23217/000110465926083905/tmb-20260531x10k.htm); period 2026-05-31, filed 2026-07-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.