# Carmila (CARM.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CARM.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 14.46 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 19.50 per share, central EUR 22.12 per share, high EUR 25.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 22.12 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.0% at the stated quote. About 14.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.77×

- FY2017: 0.73×

- FY2018: 0.62×

- FY2019: 0.62×

- FY2020: 0.49×

- FY2021: 0.53×

- FY2022: 0.63×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.83×

- FY2025: 0.59×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 74.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 74.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.2%

- FY2017: 4.0%

- FY2018: 3.3%

- FY2019: 3.9%

- FY2020: 3.0%

- FY2021: 4.1%

- FY2022: 5.1%

- FY2023: 1.0%

- FY2024: 7.0%

- FY2025: 5.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 844M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 914M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 236.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -16.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 24.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: -6.76×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.85×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.0% vs 5.1%

- Per-share earnings: 2.35 to 1.33 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: EUR 237M

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 935M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.8%

- Per-share value change: EUR -1.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 2.35

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 1.33

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.19

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 742K

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 1.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 2.81

- FY2017: EUR 2.35

- FY2018: EUR 1.20

- FY2019: EUR 0.79

- FY2020: EUR -1.40

- FY2021: EUR 1.32

- FY2022: EUR 1.53

- FY2023: EUR 0.02

- FY2024: EUR 2.22

- FY2025: EUR 1.33

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.86×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.28×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.2%

- FY2017: 0.8%

- FY2018: -1.2%

- FY2019: -2.7%

- FY2020: -5.7%

- FY2021: -1.0%

- FY2022: -1.6%

- FY2023: -4.1%

- FY2024: 0.3%

- FY2025: -0.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 25% since Apr 2025 · sales +13.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.429Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-23: Carmila - First-half 2025 Results: Acceleration in Growth and Recurring Earnings Outlook Revised Upwards ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carmila-first-half-2025-results-154000480.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +13.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 283M 

- FY2017: EUR 317M 

- FY2018: EUR 424M 

- FY2019: EUR 452M 

- FY2020: EUR 440M 

- FY2021: EUR 444M 

- FY2022: EUR 473M 

- FY2023: EUR 486M 

- FY2024: EUR 507M 

- FY2025: EUR 574M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 91.8% 

- FY2017: 92.3% 

- FY2018: 76.1% 

- FY2019: 67.5% 

- FY2020: 63.5% 

- FY2021: 68.2% 

- FY2022: 76.4% 

- FY2023: 75.0% 

- FY2024: 73.1% 

- FY2025: 74.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are EUR 574.3 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2025: revenue 574348000; grossProfit 427878000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CARM.PA: Carmila S.A. is Europe's third-largest listed property company specializing in shopping centres, with a portfolio in France, Spain and Italy worth 6.8 billion euros at 30 June 2026. With over 620 million visits to its shopping centres per year, Carmila harnesses its expertise in property, retail and digital technology to transform its assets and create sustainable value for shareholders and partners. Carmila S.A. was established on March 6, 1991, and incorporated in France.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 73.1% to 75% during 2023–25; it earns 4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 75%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 73.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04155915203402508],[2017,0.039715175264888034],[2018,0.033432427516940526],[2019,0.03854026614858868],[2020,0.03029243804597346],[2021,0.04088993470606731],[2022,0.05120933524291904],[2023,0.010097649318957473],[2024,0.0695005468891024],[2025,0.05141239598500798]]; median 0.040302554985477676. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.8% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1550000; owner earnings 293733000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 282000; owner earnings 314488000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 502000; owner earnings 169405000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 185000; owner earnings 102423800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 454000; owner earnings 186026400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2022: growth capex 24043000; upkeep 991000; owner earnings 212216800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11329451768191774.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3052000; owner earnings 305774800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2025: growth capex 1249810.448518429; upkeep 21046189.55148157; owner earnings 158417210.44851843. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.007889360284655344.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,6546000],[2017,164690000],[2018,101461000],[2019,204903000],[2020,73126000],[2021,94453000],[2022,143556000],[2023,166698000],[2024,170708000],[2025,176051000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 29377000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 36.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CARM.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 36.631 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:22.361Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07761574166586843. Price 14.46; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-11: EUR 20.30 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 20.39 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 21.01 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 21.07 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 24.98 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 25.32 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 27.75 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 31.00 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 24.01 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 23.45 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 24.31 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 23.77 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 23.02 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 23.22 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 24.65 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 23.90 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 24.00 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 25.10 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 24.40 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 23.85 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 23.20 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 22.75 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 21.95 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 19.46 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 18.72 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 16.16 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 17.50 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 17.76 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 17.02 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 18.80 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 15.64 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 15.74 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 14.96 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 15.06 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 16.02 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 17.44 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 18.26 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 20.00 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 17.70 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 16.32 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 12.96 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 11.72 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 11.16 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 12.20 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 10.00 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 9.35 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 7.74 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 6.64 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 11.84 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 11.78 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 11.28 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 12.54 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 12.90 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 13.96 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 13.34 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 11.56 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 11.90 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 11.86 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 12.94 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 13.10 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 12.22 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 13.86 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 14.70 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 15.66 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 14.32 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 14.78 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 14.60 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 13.50 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 15.46 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 15.88 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 13.76 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 14.16 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 13.70 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 13.34 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 13.86 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 14.14 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 13.82 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 15.34 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 13.94 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 14.24 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 14.74 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 14.40 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 14.18 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 13.22 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 14.22 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 15.58 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 16.50 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 14.82 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 16.12 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 15.76 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 17.78 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 15.64 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 16.70 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 16.76 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 17.86 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 17.26 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 16.50 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 16.02 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 16.70 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 17.34 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 17.50 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 19.16 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 18.66 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 16.64 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 17.26 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 17.20 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 17.56 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 15.82 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 17.12 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 17.00 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 16.36 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 18.52 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 16.64 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 16.98 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 16.68 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 16.64 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 16.90 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 15.86 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 14.62 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 14.36 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2020: low EUR 15.72 per share, central EUR 17.59 per share, high EUR 20.07 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 14.92 per share, central EUR 16.76 per share, high EUR 19.21 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 16.80 per share, central EUR 18.78 per share, high EUR 21.42 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 14.44 per share, central EUR 15.61 per share, high EUR 17.16 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 17.44 per share, central EUR 19.71 per share, high EUR 22.72 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 19.65 per share, central EUR 22.24 per share, high EUR 25.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:46:06.188Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies

Carmila

CARM · PA

SBF 120

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price
EUR 14.46
Buy up to
EUR 22.12
Expected / yr
14.0% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 28.9% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).

10y median
61.8%
Worst year
17.5%
Latest · 2025
59.0%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 4% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 3% (minimum 10%).

10y median
4.0%
Worst year
1.0%
Latest · 2025
5.1%

Each $1 of profit left $0.92 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Five-year totals
0.92×
Annual median
0.97×
Latest · 2025
0.85×

Per-share value fell from 2.35 to 1.33, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

10y median
EUR 1.32
Worst year
EUR -1.40
Latest · 2025
EUR 1.33

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -0.8% of assets (limit 10%).

10y median
-1.1%
Worst year
2.2%
Latest · 2025
-0.8%

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 59.8%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.06 EUR.

2. Is the price low enough?

Price & return math
Value rangeEUR 19.50 – EUR 25.60
Buy at or belowCentral value EUR 22.12
Discount to value1 − 14.46 / 22.12 = 34.6%
Return / yearAbout 14.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputsOwner cash EUR 1.74/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash EUR 0.53/share today.
Required return10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value
RevenueEUR 574M
574M020162025
FY2016 · Revenue: EUR 283M; FY2017 · Revenue: EUR 317M; FY2018 · Revenue: EUR 424M; FY2019 · Revenue: EUR 452M; FY2020 · Revenue: EUR 440M; FY2021 · Revenue: EUR 444M; FY2022 · Revenue: EUR 473M; FY2023 · Revenue: EUR 486M; FY2024 · Revenue: EUR 507M; FY2025 · Revenue: EUR 574M
Revenue
Owner earningsEUR 158M
314M-205M20162025
FY2016 · Owner earnings: EUR 294M; FY2017 · Owner earnings: EUR 314M; FY2018 · Owner earnings: EUR 169M; FY2019 · Owner earnings: EUR 102M; FY2020 · Owner earnings: EUR -205M; FY2021 · Owner earnings: EUR 186M; FY2022 · Owner earnings: EUR 212M; FY2023 · Owner earnings: EUR -19M; FY2024 · Owner earnings: EUR 306M; FY2025 · Owner earnings: EUR 158M
Owner earnings
Operating margin59.0%
82.8%0.0%20162025
FY2016 · Operating margin: 77.0%; FY2017 · Operating margin: 73.3%; FY2018 · Operating margin: 62.1%; FY2019 · Operating margin: 61.5%; FY2020 · Operating margin: 48.8%; FY2021 · Operating margin: 52.7%; FY2022 · Operating margin: 63.0%; FY2023 · Operating margin: 17.5%; FY2024 · Operating margin: 82.8%; FY2025 · Operating margin: 59.0%
Operating margin
Net cash / debtEUR -2.6B
1.00-2.6B20162025
FY2016 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.1B; FY2017 · Net cash / debt: EUR -1.7B; FY2018 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.3B; FY2019 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.3B; FY2020 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.3B; FY2021 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.4B; FY2022 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.2B; FY2023 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.2B; FY2024 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.6B; FY2025 · Net cash / debt: EUR -2.6B
Net cash / debt
Diluted shares140M
146M020162025
FY2016 · Diluted shares: 105M; FY2017 · Diluted shares: 133M; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 136M; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 137M; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 142M; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 146M; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 144M; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 142M; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 141M; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 140M
Diluted shares
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025