# Carrier Global (CARR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CARR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:13.962Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $54.96 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $32.74 per share, central $37.10 per share, high $42.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value $37.10 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:13.962Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.6pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 39.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 61.9%

- FY2018: 81.3%

- FY2019: 50.9%

- FY2020: 53.8%

- FY2021: 40.3%

- FY2022: 26.7%

- FY2023: 38.7%

- FY2024: 16.6%

- FY2025: 17.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 16.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.12×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $15B

- Net income, five-year total: $14B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 1.07×

- FY2024: 1.13×

- FY2025: 1.59×

### management: fail

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 61.9% vs 17.5%

- Per-share earnings: 2.44 to 1.72 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Per-share value growth: -5.7%

- Per-share value change: -$0.72

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.44

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.72

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 61.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $1.41

- FY2018: $3.16

- FY2019: $2.44

- FY2020: $2.25

- FY2021: $1.87

- FY2022: $4.10

- FY2023: $1.69

- FY2024: $6.15

- FY2025: $1.72

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.41×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.58×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.0%

- FY2018: 3.1%

- FY2019: 0.2%

- FY2020: 1.2%

- FY2021: -2.2%

- FY2022: 6.9%

- FY2023: -3.6%

- FY2024: 13.5%

- FY2025: -1.6%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 32% since Sep 2024 · "How Earnings Pressure and Slowing Organic Growth Could Recast Carrier Global’s (CARR) Acquisition-Driven Story" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +1.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:27.513Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: Carrier Global beats quarterly profit estimate, raises 2025 forecast amid strong HVAC demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carrier-global-beats-quarterly-profit-111818247.html))

- 2025-09-10: Carrier warns of 40% residential HVAC drop, highlights data center growth ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4493896-carrier-warns-of-40-residential-hvac-drop-highlights-data-center-growth?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-12: Softer Demand Trends and Ongoing Dealer Destocking Affected Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) in Q3 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softer-demand-trends-ongoing-dealer-141435045.html))

- 2026-02-14: Carrier Global Resets Portfolio With Job Cuts And Data Center Push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carrier-global-resets-portfolio-job-131015766.html))

- 2026-03-30: Carrier Global (CARR) Slid on Lowering Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carrier-global-carr-slid-lowering-134227487.html))

- 2026-04-04: Carrier Global Backs Heat Geek To Target European Heat Pump Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/carrier-global-backs-heat-geek-050938016.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000008/carr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2017: $18B 

- FY2018: $19B 

- FY2019: $19B 

- FY2020: $17B 

- FY2021: $21B 

- FY2022: $17B 

- FY2023: $22B 

- FY2024: $22B 

- FY2025: $22B 

- FY2026: $22B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 24.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000008/carr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2017: 29.1% 

- FY2018: 29.4% 

- FY2019: 29.1% 

- FY2020: 29.3% 

- FY2021: 29.0% 

- FY2022: 24.9% 

- FY2023: 28.9% 

- FY2024: 26.6% 

- FY2025: 25.9% 

- FY2026: 24.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in building products & equipment; annual sales are USD 21.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000008/carr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: revenue 21747000000; grossProfit 5624000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CARR.US: Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Climate Solutions Americas; Climate Solutions Europe; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa; and Climate Solutions Transportation. The company provides air conditioners, heating systems, heat pumps, home and building energy management systems, automation systems, aftermarket components, and repair and maintenance and rental services, as well as modernization and upgrades to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. It also offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products, services, and digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, and intermodal and rail applications. The company offers its products under the Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25.9% to 28.9% during 2023–25; it earns 39.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000008/carr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.6189503456945318],[2018,0.8125395948393018],[2019,0.5088706515540349],[2020,0.5377852406186466],[2021,0.4028026966050709],[2022,0.2669577929165332],[2023,0.38711852975889394],[2024,0.16588006325264568],[2025,0.17547525757206897],[2026,0.16788060637160357]]; median 0.3949606131819824. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years; bought back USD 2.9 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 326000000; owner earnings 1273000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 263000000; owner earnings 2828000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 243000000; owner earnings 2208000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 312000000; owner earnings 2006000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2021: growth capex 6000000; upkeep 338000000; owner earnings 1664000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.003605769230769231.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 353000000; owner earnings 3509000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 439000000; owner earnings 1543000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 519000000; owner earnings 6317000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000008/carr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 392000000; owner earnings 2366000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Dividend observations: [[2017,138000000],[2018,138000000],[2019,138000000],[2020,138000000],[2021,417000000],[2022,509000000],[2023,620000000],[2024,670000000],[2025,772000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000008/carr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: cash repurchases 2892000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CARR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.765 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Demand for our HVAC products and services is influenced by weather conditions and seasonality." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000008/carr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); Demand for our HVAC products and services is influenced by weather conditions and seasonality.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07220949821361422. Price 54.96; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2020-03: $17.25 per share

- 2020-04: $17.71 per share

- 2020-05: $20.47 per share

- 2020-06: $22.22 per share

- 2020-07: $27.24 per share

- 2020-08: $29.85 per share

- 2020-09: $30.54 per share

- 2020-10: $33.39 per share

- 2020-11: $38.07 per share

- 2020-12: $37.72 per share

- 2021-01: $38.50 per share

- 2021-02: $36.53 per share

- 2021-03: $42.22 per share

- 2021-04: $43.58 per share

- 2021-05: $45.93 per share

- 2021-06: $48.60 per share

- 2021-07: $55.25 per share

- 2021-08: $57.60 per share

- 2021-09: $51.76 per share

- 2021-10: $52.23 per share

- 2021-11: $54.12 per share

- 2021-12: $54.24 per share

- 2022-01: $47.68 per share

- 2022-02: $44.88 per share

- 2022-03: $45.87 per share

- 2022-04: $38.27 per share

- 2022-05: $39.31 per share

- 2022-06: $35.66 per share

- 2022-07: $40.53 per share

- 2022-08: $39.12 per share

- 2022-09: $35.56 per share

- 2022-10: $39.76 per share

- 2022-11: $44.32 per share

- 2022-12: $41.25 per share

- 2023-01: $45.53 per share

- 2023-02: $45.03 per share

- 2023-03: $45.75 per share

- 2023-04: $41.82 per share

- 2023-05: $40.90 per share

- 2023-06: $49.71 per share

- 2023-07: $59.55 per share

- 2023-08: $57.45 per share

- 2023-09: $55.20 per share

- 2023-10: $47.66 per share

- 2023-11: $51.96 per share

- 2023-12: $57.45 per share

- 2024-01: $54.71 per share

- 2024-02: $55.58 per share

- 2024-03: $58.13 per share

- 2024-04: $61.49 per share

- 2024-05: $63.19 per share

- 2024-06: $63.08 per share

- 2024-07: $68.11 per share

- 2024-08: $72.78 per share

- 2024-09: $80.49 per share

- 2024-10: $72.72 per share

- 2024-11: $77.37 per share

- 2024-12: $68.26 per share

- 2025-01: $65.38 per share

- 2025-02: $64.80 per share

- 2025-03: $63.40 per share

- 2025-04: $62.54 per share

- 2025-05: $71.20 per share

- 2025-06: $73.19 per share

- 2025-07: $68.62 per share

- 2025-08: $65.20 per share

- 2025-09: $59.70 per share

- 2025-10: $59.49 per share

- 2025-11: $54.88 per share

- 2025-12: $52.84 per share

- 2026-01: $59.58 per share

- 2026-02: $64.40 per share

- 2026-03: $56.31 per share

- 2026-04: $67.17 per share

- 2026-05: $63.87 per share

- 2026-06: $73.35 per share

- 2026-07: $61.81 per share

- 2026-08: $58.22 per share

- 2026-09: $54.86 per share

- 2026-10: $55.03 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $31.97 per share, central $35.98 per share, high $41.32 per share

- FY2022: low $29.72 per share, central $33.31 per share, high $38.09 per share

- FY2023: low $43.57 per share, central $48.06 per share, high $54.03 per share

- FY2024: low $34.84 per share, central $39.11 per share, high $44.80 per share

- FY2025: low $31.29 per share, central $35.42 per share, high $40.92 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783180/000178318026000008/carr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.