# Caseys General Stores (CASY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CASY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:14.684Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $673.63 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $202.54 per share, central $289.21 per share, high $339.68 per share. Buy at or below the central value $289.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:14.684Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- FY2026: 0.06×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 10.9%

- FY2019: 9.6%

- FY2020: 10.9%

- FY2021: 12.5%

- FY2022: 12.2%

- FY2023: 14.6%

- FY2024: 13.9%

- FY2025: 12.5%

- FY2026: 15.6%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 15.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 30.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 0.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.66×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.8% vs 13.9%

- Per-share earnings: 5.73 to 14.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: $26B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 12.4%

- Per-share value change: $8.90

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.73

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $14.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.46

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $4.48

- FY2018: $8.34

- FY2019: $5.51

- FY2020: $7.10

- FY2021: $8.38

- FY2022: $9.10

- FY2023: $11.91

- FY2024: $13.43

- FY2025: $14.64

- FY2026: $19.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.22×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.93×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.32×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -9.3%

- FY2018: -2.9%

- FY2019: -8.8%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: -11.0%

- FY2022: -8.2%

- FY2023: -7.3%

- FY2024: -6.2%

- FY2025: -6.5%

- FY2026: -7.4%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 23% since Jul 2026 · "Casey’s (CASY) Beats on Profit, but a Soft Sales Number Sends the Stock Tumbling" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +6.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:27.700Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 17.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-15: Casey's General Stores (NasdaqGS:CASY) Sees Q3 Earnings Rise With US$87 Million Net Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/caseys-general-stores-nasdaqgs-casy-173752811.html))

- 2025-06-10: Casey’s Strong Earnings and Dividend Boost Push Stock to Record High ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/fce52abe-b3bd-32a5-ab35-d606e42ed85d/casey%E2%80%99s-strong-earnings-and.html))

- 2026-03-10: CASY Q3 Earnings Beat, Inside Sales Rise Y/Y, FY26 Outlook Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/casy-q3-earnings-beat-inside-173600017.html))

- 2026-06-09: Casey’s Stock Rises on Earnings. Fuel Prices Were Key for the Convenience Store Operator. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/94fd90f1-8485-38e8-a3fe-4f3b7fd3344e/casey%E2%80%99s-stock-rises-on.html))

- 2026-09-20: Casey’s (CASY) Beats on Profit, but a Soft Sales Number Sends the Stock Tumbling ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/casey-casy-beats-profit-soft-233311591.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +6.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000046/casy-20260430.htm; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2018: $8.4B 

- FY2019: $9.4B 

- FY2020: $9.2B 

- FY2021: $8.7B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $15B 

- FY2025: $16B 

- FY2026: $18B 

- FY2027: $19B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 23.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000046/casy-20260430.htm; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2018: 21.1% 

- FY2019: 20.9% 

- FY2020: 23.4% 

- FY2021: 27.1% 

- FY2022: 21.3% 

- FY2023: 20.4% 

- FY2024: 22.5% 

- FY2025: 23.5% 

- FY2026: 24.6% 

- FY2027: 23.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty retail; annual sales are USD 17.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000046/casy-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 17561101000; grossProfit 4321041000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CASY.US: Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States. Its stores offer pizza, donuts, hot breakfast items, and sandwiches; and beverages, tobacco and nicotine products. The company's stores also provide soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, automotive products, electronic accessories, and housewares. In addition, its stores offer motor fuel for sale on a self-service basis; gasoline and diesel fuel; and ATM, lotto/lottery, and prepaid cards, as well as car wash services. The company also operates distribution centers. Casey's General Stores, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.5% to 24.6% during 2024–26; it earns 12.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 23.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000046/casy-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 24.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.10948334153635686],[2019,0.0963309161208425],[2020,0.10861207120998273],[2021,0.12460806068731232],[2022,0.12154789843295714],[2023,0.1455421934447282],[2024,0.13893200774559752],[2025,0.12480431229536422],[2026,0.1555991936638459],[2027,0.15871876438346227]]; median 0.12470618649133827. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 28.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 30.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 104285756.1375938; upkeep 329106243.8624062; owner earnings 46007756.137593806. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.2666994631450836.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 262512560.89848256; upkeep 314908439.10151744; owner earnings 223964560.89848256. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1721165163156007.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 150312000; upkeep 244387000; owner earnings 203886000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7372355139636856.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 438977000; owner earnings 76043000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 441252000; owner earnings 136843000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 22934000; upkeep 303541000; owner earnings 339790000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0674946290355808.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 163437000; upkeep 313131000; owner earnings 446691000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.36588379886767364.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 522004000; owner earnings 329765000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 102577000; upkeep 403647000; owner earnings 546520000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18769120983678547.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000046/casy-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 205962000; upkeep 449958000; owner earnings 714448000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2882813024880747.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Incremental return on capital 0.30689020767668, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,36758000],[2018,38780000],[2019,41430000],[2020,45951000],[2021,47971000],[2022,51212000],[2023,55617000],[2024,62918000],[2025,72309000],[2026,83136000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000046/casy-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 200505000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CASY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.5780000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"The volatility of wholesale petroleum costs could adversely affect our operating results." (SEC filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000046/casy-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-22); The volatility of wholesale petroleum costs could adversely affect our operating results.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 17.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 68.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.23791120690353706. Price 673.63; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.10349498768447696 → FY2026 19.163527969105875. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $112.99 per share

- 2016-11: $120.45 per share

- 2016-12: $118.88 per share

- 2017-01: $114.90 per share

- 2017-02: $114.58 per share

- 2017-03: $112.25 per share

- 2017-04: $112.07 per share

- 2017-05: $116.39 per share

- 2017-06: $107.11 per share

- 2017-07: $106.75 per share

- 2017-08: $105.42 per share

- 2017-09: $109.45 per share

- 2017-10: $114.57 per share

- 2017-11: $120.75 per share

- 2017-12: $111.94 per share

- 2018-01: $121.11 per share

- 2018-02: $112.31 per share

- 2018-03: $109.77 per share

- 2018-04: $96.60 per share

- 2018-05: $96.80 per share

- 2018-06: $105.08 per share

- 2018-07: $109.38 per share

- 2018-08: $114.17 per share

- 2018-09: $129.11 per share

- 2018-10: $126.11 per share

- 2018-11: $129.47 per share

- 2018-12: $128.14 per share

- 2019-01: $128.68 per share

- 2019-02: $134.74 per share

- 2019-03: $128.77 per share

- 2019-04: $132.35 per share

- 2019-05: $129.08 per share

- 2019-06: $155.99 per share

- 2019-07: $161.91 per share

- 2019-08: $167.85 per share

- 2019-09: $161.16 per share

- 2019-10: $170.81 per share

- 2019-11: $173.77 per share

- 2019-12: $158.99 per share

- 2020-01: $160.86 per share

- 2020-02: $163.02 per share

- 2020-03: $132.49 per share

- 2020-04: $151.41 per share

- 2020-05: $159.73 per share

- 2020-06: $149.52 per share

- 2020-07: $159.19 per share

- 2020-08: $177.85 per share

- 2020-09: $177.65 per share

- 2020-10: $168.57 per share

- 2020-11: $181.68 per share

- 2020-12: $178.62 per share

- 2021-01: $187.48 per share

- 2021-02: $201.96 per share

- 2021-03: $216.19 per share

- 2021-04: $222.19 per share

- 2021-05: $220.84 per share

- 2021-06: $194.64 per share

- 2021-07: $197.71 per share

- 2021-08: $204.56 per share

- 2021-09: $188.45 per share

- 2021-10: $191.54 per share

- 2021-11: $194.29 per share

- 2021-12: $197.35 per share

- 2022-01: $187.81 per share

- 2022-02: $188.08 per share

- 2022-03: $198.17 per share

- 2022-04: $201.30 per share

- 2022-05: $209.54 per share

- 2022-06: $184.98 per share

- 2022-07: $202.65 per share

- 2022-08: $213.77 per share

- 2022-09: $202.52 per share

- 2022-10: $232.71 per share

- 2022-11: $243.02 per share

- 2022-12: $224.35 per share

- 2023-01: $235.91 per share

- 2023-02: $207.95 per share

- 2023-03: $216.46 per share

- 2023-04: $228.82 per share

- 2023-05: $225.65 per share

- 2023-06: $243.88 per share

- 2023-07: $252.66 per share

- 2023-08: $244.41 per share

- 2023-09: $271.52 per share

- 2023-10: $271.91 per share

- 2023-11: $275.40 per share

- 2023-12: $274.74 per share

- 2024-01: $271.36 per share

- 2024-02: $304.49 per share

- 2024-03: $318.45 per share

- 2024-04: $319.58 per share

- 2024-05: $331.78 per share

- 2024-06: $381.56 per share

- 2024-07: $387.84 per share

- 2024-08: $362.31 per share

- 2024-09: $375.71 per share

- 2024-10: $394.02 per share

- 2024-11: $420.89 per share

- 2024-12: $396.23 per share

- 2025-01: $421.77 per share

- 2025-02: $414.21 per share

- 2025-03: $434.04 per share

- 2025-04: $462.59 per share

- 2025-05: $437.76 per share

- 2025-06: $510.27 per share

- 2025-07: $520.13 per share

- 2025-08: $494.52 per share

- 2025-09: $565.32 per share

- 2025-10: $513.19 per share

- 2025-11: $570.46 per share

- 2025-12: $552.71 per share

- 2026-01: $606.50 per share

- 2026-02: $685.59 per share

- 2026-03: $727.86 per share

- 2026-04: $822.15 per share

- 2026-05: $767.14 per share

- 2026-06: $794.79 per share

- 2026-07: $871.00 per share

- 2026-08: $752.21 per share

- 2026-09: $608.46 per share

- 2026-10: $673.63 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $1.19 per share, central $1.35 per share, high $1.57 per share

- FY2018: low $18.34 per share, central $26.19 per share, high $30.77 per share

- FY2019: low $21.08 per share, central $30.11 per share, high $35.37 per share

- FY2020: low $25.93 per share, central $34.47 per share, high $40.35 per share

- FY2021: low $50.40 per share, central $65.01 per share, high $75.34 per share

- FY2022: low $96.25 per share, central $128.52 per share, high $150.49 per share

- FY2023: low $117.36 per share, central $161.19 per share, high $188.69 per share

- FY2024: low $113.63 per share, central $153.49 per share, high $179.84 per share

- FY2025: low $145.79 per share, central $198.80 per share, high $232.99 per share

- FY2026: low $194.11 per share, central $275.32 per share, high $322.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:54.087Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726958/000072695826000046/casy-20260430.htm); period 2026-04-30, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.