Margins varied 21.2% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 15.3%
- Worst year
- 9.8%
- Latest · LTM
- 17.5%
# Caterpillar (CAT.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CAT Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:15.083Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $735.64 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $279.51 per share, central $375.88 per share, high $438.57 per share. Buy at or below the central value $375.88 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:15.083Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 3 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.21× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.10× - FY2018: 0.15× - FY2019: 0.15× - FY2020: 0.11× - FY2021: 0.13× - FY2022: 0.13× - FY2023: 0.19× - FY2024: 0.20× - FY2025: 0.17× - LTM to Jun 2026: 0.18× ### moat: fail - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: 16.0% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.5% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.2 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.2% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 32.3% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 5.0% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.7% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 2.1% - FY2017: 8.5% - FY2018: 17.8% - FY2019: 17.1% - FY2020: 9.3% - FY2021: 14.0% - FY2022: 14.9% - FY2023: 22.7% - FY2024: 23.0% - FY2025: 17.3% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $41B - Net income, five-year total: $43B - Return on incremental invested capital: 40.5% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.6 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 43.2% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 1.00× - FY2022: 1.00× - FY2023: 1.00× - FY2024: 0.90× - FY2025: 0.83× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.5% vs 22.7% - Per-share earnings: 1.26 to 20.12 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.4% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.0% - Market cap gain: $212B - Cumulative retained earnings: $38B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.4% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.0% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025 - Per-share value growth: 41.4% - Per-share value change: $18.86 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.26 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $20.12 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.92 - Average buyback yield: 3.0% - Buyback history: 9 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Acquisition spending: $0 - Cumulative net income, 10 years: $59B - ROIC, first three-year median: 8.5% - ROIC, last three-year median: 22.7% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -$0.11 - FY2017: $1.26 - FY2018: $10.26 - FY2019: $10.74 - FY2020: $5.46 - FY2021: $11.83 - FY2022: $12.64 - FY2023: $20.12 - FY2024: $22.05 - FY2025: $18.79 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -2.9% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10× - Restructuring years, last five: 1 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.1% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 1.32× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.26× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -7.6% - FY2017: -6.4% - FY2018: -0.5% - FY2019: -1.0% - FY2020: -4.3% - FY2021: -0.9% - FY2022: -1.3% - FY2023: -2.9% - FY2024: -1.4% - FY2025: -2.9% ## Holders - [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Down 31% since Jun 2026 · "Caterpillar flags $2.6 billion tariff hit in 2026, power equipment demand lifts quarter" (finance.yahoo.com, Jan 2026) · sales +10.6% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:27.777Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 14% a year for ten years - 2025-10-29: Caterpillar Powers Up On Data Center Sales, Warns Of Bigger Tariff Bite ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/2aca2b7d-426f-3279-8f9d-d520ae656d12/caterpillar-powers-up-on-data.html)) - 2026-01-29: Caterpillar stock surges on revenue and earnings beats, demand for power-generation equipment ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/caterpillar-stock-surges-on-revenue-and-earnings-beats-demand-for-power-generation-equipment-155829055.html)) - 2026-02-02: Caterpillar Taps AI Data Center Power Demand With Monarch Campus Deal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/caterpillar-taps-ai-data-center-231742688.html)) - 2026-04-30: CAT Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Volume and Pricing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cat-q1-earnings-beat-estimates-172400999.html)) - 2026-06-17: Caterpillar (CAT) Is Recasting Its Growth Story With A $63 Billion AI Backlog ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/caterpillar-cat-recasting-growth-story-111132952.html)) - 2026-07-29: Caterpillar Stock Drops 6.2% as Baird Cuts AI Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/caterpillar-stock-drops-6-2-182157993.html)) ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +10.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13. - FY2017: $45B - FY2018: $55B - FY2019: $54B - FY2020: $42B - FY2021: $51B - FY2022: $59B - FY2023: $67B - FY2024: $65B - FY2025: $68B - FY2026: $75B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 32.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13. - FY2016: 25.7% - FY2017: 29.8% - FY2018: 31.1% - FY2019: 30.5% - FY2020: 28.9% - FY2021: 29.4% - FY2022: 29.5% - FY2023: 34.7% - FY2024: 36.0% - FY2025: 32.3% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are USD 67.6 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 67589000000; grossProfit 21859000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CAT.US: Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. The Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators; backhoe, compact track, skid steer, track-type, and wheel loaders; and related parts and work tools. Its Resource Industries segment provides electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, mining trucks, wheel loaders, off-highway and articulated trucks, wide-body trucks, wheel tractor scrapers and dozers, and landfill and soil compactors; machinery components, and wear and maintenance components; and technology products and services for fleet management, equipment management analytics, autonomous machine capabilities, safety services, and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engine powered generator sets; reciprocating engines, drivetrain, and integrated systems and solutions; centrifugal gas compressors and related services; and diesel-electric locomotive components, and other rail-related products. Its Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, revolving charge accounts, installment sale contracts, repair/rebuild financing, working capital loans, and wholesale financing; and insurance and risk management products and services. The All Other segment offers parts distribution; logistics and distribution services; electronics and control systems; dealer portfolio management; brand management and marketing strategy; and digital investment services. It also provides mining software solutions. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. Caterpillar Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 32.3% to 36% during 2023–25; it earns 16% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 34.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 36%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.3%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.020519995653118888],[2017,0.08480823801304742],[2018,0.17774725907037423],[2019,0.1706284433540396],[2020,0.09280753088396435],[2021,0.1400329104597783],[2022,0.148911013159951],[2023,0.22659308218738286],[2024,0.22963952758598416],[2025,0.1727866463558833]]; median 0.1597697282569953. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Can it raise prices North America sales increased 6 percent due to higher sales volume, partially offset by unfavorable price realization. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Sales were higher in Power & Energy, about flat in Resource Industries and slightly lower in Construction Industries. North America sales increased 6 percent due to higher sales volume, partially offset by unfavorable price realization. The increase in sales volume was mainly driven by higher sales of equipment to end users. ### Where the cash goes Spends 7.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 40.5% on new investment. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2928000000; owner earnings 39000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2336000000; owner earnings 1295000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 150000000; upkeep 2766000000; owner earnings 6147000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02440214738897023. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2669000000; owner earnings 6001000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2115000000; owner earnings 3315000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 120000000; upkeep 2352000000; owner earnings 6489000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01849283402681461. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 380000000; upkeep 2219000000; owner earnings 6705000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05667412378821775. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 948000000; upkeep 2144000000; owner earnings 10335000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09172714078374455. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3215000000; owner earnings 9730000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 545975892.7215843; upkeep 3740024107.2784157; owner earnings 7394975892.721584. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07383065214032063. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Incremental return on capital 0.40533394334660816, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,1799000000],[2017,1831000000],[2018,1951000000],[2019,2132000000],[2020,2243000000],[2021,2332000000],[2022,2440000000],[2023,2563000000],[2024,2646000000],[2025,2749000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 5206000000 USD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 0.2% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CAT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.22 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it "Changes in government monetary or fiscal policies may negatively impact our results" (SEC filing, Feb 2026) - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Changes in government monetary or fiscal policies may negatively impact our results ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 14% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 15.2%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18886556998324877. Price 735.64; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.8200565441543324 → FY2025 15.657370088337041. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-10: $83.46 per share - 2016-11: $95.56 per share - 2016-12: $92.74 per share - 2017-01: $95.66 per share - 2017-02: $96.66 per share - 2017-03: $92.76 per share - 2017-04: $102.26 per share - 2017-05: $105.43 per share - 2017-06: $107.46 per share - 2017-07: $113.95 per share - 2017-08: $117.49 per share - 2017-09: $124.71 per share - 2017-10: $135.80 per share - 2017-11: $141.15 per share - 2017-12: $157.58 per share - 2018-01: $162.78 per share - 2018-02: $154.63 per share - 2018-03: $147.38 per share - 2018-04: $144.36 per share - 2018-05: $151.91 per share - 2018-06: $135.67 per share - 2018-07: $143.80 per share - 2018-08: $138.85 per share - 2018-09: $152.49 per share - 2018-10: $121.32 per share - 2018-11: $135.67 per share - 2018-12: $127.07 per share - 2019-01: $133.16 per share - 2019-02: $137.34 per share - 2019-03: $135.49 per share - 2019-04: $139.42 per share - 2019-05: $119.81 per share - 2019-06: $136.29 per share - 2019-07: $131.67 per share - 2019-08: $119.00 per share - 2019-09: $126.31 per share - 2019-10: $137.80 per share - 2019-11: $144.73 per share - 2019-12: $147.68 per share - 2020-01: $131.35 per share - 2020-02: $124.24 per share - 2020-03: $116.04 per share - 2020-04: $116.38 per share - 2020-05: $120.13 per share - 2020-06: $126.50 per share - 2020-07: $132.88 per share - 2020-08: $142.31 per share - 2020-09: $149.15 per share - 2020-10: $157.05 per share - 2020-11: $173.59 per share - 2020-12: $182.02 per share - 2021-01: $182.84 per share - 2021-02: $215.88 per share - 2021-03: $231.87 per share - 2021-04: $228.11 per share - 2021-05: $241.08 per share - 2021-06: $217.63 per share - 2021-07: $206.75 per share - 2021-08: $210.87 per share - 2021-09: $191.97 per share - 2021-10: $204.01 per share - 2021-11: $193.35 per share - 2021-12: $206.74 per share - 2022-01: $201.56 per share - 2022-02: $187.58 per share - 2022-03: $222.82 per share - 2022-04: $210.54 per share - 2022-05: $215.85 per share - 2022-06: $178.76 per share - 2022-07: $198.25 per share - 2022-08: $184.71 per share - 2022-09: $164.08 per share - 2022-10: $216.46 per share - 2022-11: $236.41 per share - 2022-12: $239.56 per share - 2023-01: $252.29 per share - 2023-02: $239.55 per share - 2023-03: $228.84 per share - 2023-04: $218.80 per share - 2023-05: $205.75 per share - 2023-06: $246.05 per share - 2023-07: $265.17 per share - 2023-08: $281.13 per share - 2023-09: $273.00 per share - 2023-10: $226.05 per share - 2023-11: $250.72 per share - 2023-12: $295.67 per share - 2024-01: $300.31 per share - 2024-02: $333.96 per share - 2024-03: $366.43 per share - 2024-04: $334.57 per share - 2024-05: $338.52 per share - 2024-06: $333.10 per share - 2024-07: $346.20 per share - 2024-08: $356.10 per share - 2024-09: $391.12 per share - 2024-10: $376.20 per share - 2024-11: $406.11 per share - 2024-12: $362.76 per share - 2025-01: $371.44 per share - 2025-02: $343.95 per share - 2025-03: $329.80 per share - 2025-04: $309.27 per share - 2025-05: $348.03 per share - 2025-06: $388.21 per share - 2025-07: $438.02 per share - 2025-08: $419.04 per share - 2025-09: $477.15 per share - 2025-10: $577.26 per share - 2025-11: $575.76 per share - 2025-12: $572.87 per share - 2026-01: $657.36 per share - 2026-02: $742.83 per share - 2026-03: $708.46 per share - 2026-04: $890.11 per share - 2026-05: $875.87 per share - 2026-06: $1,064.90 per share - 2026-07: $814.81 per share - 2026-08: $797.47 per share - 2026-09: $810.79 per share - 2026-10: $772.78 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2016: low $42.42 per share, central $46.76 per share, high $52.54 per share - FY2017: low $45.86 per share, central $50.50 per share, high $56.66 per share - FY2018: low $52.63 per share, central $59.45 per share, high $67.29 per share - FY2019: low $70.08 per share, central $87.13 per share, high $99.74 per share - FY2020: low $81.57 per share, central $90.68 per share, high $102.80 per share - FY2021: low $128.31 per share, central $143.93 per share, high $164.73 per share - FY2022: low $148.53 per share, central $167.50 per share, high $192.75 per share - FY2023: low $192.79 per share, central $245.95 per share, high $285.69 per share - FY2024: low $218.10 per share, central $276.69 per share, high $321.44 per share - FY2025: low $254.32 per share, central $339.15 per share, high $394.33 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:54.490Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
CAT · US
S&P 500 · Dow 30
Not a wonderful business
1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 21.2% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
The second-worst year 8.5% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $0.94 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from 1.26 to 20.12, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -2.9% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 13.7%, three-year average owner earnings per share 18.55 USD.
| Value range | $279.51 – $438.57 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $375.88 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 735.64 / 375.88 = -95.7% |
| Return / year | About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 20.70/share; 6.2% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 11.35/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |