# CBRE Group (CBRE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CBRE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:16.446Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $135.49 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $79.29 per share, central $103.65 per share, high $120.92 per share. Buy at or below the central value $103.65 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:16.446Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.4% at the stated quote. About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 6.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 17.6%

- FY2017: 23.2%

- FY2018: 23.3%

- FY2019: 21.8%

- FY2020: 13.8%

- FY2021: 23.6%

- FY2022: 25.2%

- FY2023: 13.4%

- FY2024: 16.3%

- FY2025: 10.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.27×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $8.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $6.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 187.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.17×

- FY2022: 1.25×

- FY2023: 1.32×

- FY2024: 1.41×

- FY2025: 1.31×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 23.2% vs 13.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.69 to 3.15 (three-year endpoint medians)

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.3%

- Market cap gain: $37B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $7.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.1%

- Per-share value change: $1.46

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.15

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.16

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $6.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $11B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 23.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.69

- FY2017: $2.03

- FY2018: $3.10

- FY2019: $3.77

- FY2020: $2.22

- FY2021: $5.41

- FY2022: $4.29

- FY2023: $3.15

- FY2024: $3.14

- FY2025: $3.85

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.35×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.8%

- FY2017: -2.2%

- FY2018: -0.9%

- FY2019: 0.2%

- FY2020: -6.5%

- FY2021: -2.7%

- FY2022: -1.5%

- FY2023: 2.0%

- FY2024: -3.4%

- FY2025: -1.3%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Jeffrey Ubben](https://gigainvestors.com/VA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 20% since Jan 2026 · "CBRE maintains annual core profit forecast, flags 'less clear' outlook due to tariffs" (ca.finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2025) · sales +13.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:28.183Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: CBRE maintains annual core profit forecast, flags 'less clear' outlook due to tariffs ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cbre-maintains-annual-core-profit-131452671.html))

- 2025-05-12: CBRE Q1 Earnings Call: Outperformance Driven by Leasing and Diversified Services Amid Tariff Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cbre-q1-earnings-call-outperformance-095107447.html))

- 2025-07-29: CBRE beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; raises FY25 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4473189-cbre-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-raises-fy25-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-24: CBRE Q1 Deep Dive: Infrastructure Services and Data Center Momentum Propel Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cbre-q1-deep-dive-infrastructure-231723537.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +13.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1138118/000113811826000005/cbre-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: $17B 

- FY2017: $19B 

- FY2018: $21B 

- FY2019: $24B 

- FY2020: $24B 

- FY2021: $28B 

- FY2022: $31B 

- FY2023: $32B 

- FY2024: $36B 

- FY2025: $41B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1138118/000113811826000005/cbre-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 22.9% 

- FY2017: 23.2% 

- FY2018: 22.9% 

- FY2019: 21.8% 

- FY2020: 20.2% 

- FY2021: 22.2% 

- FY2022: 21.5% 

- FY2023: 19.7% 

- FY2024: 19.6% 

- FY2025: 15.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in real estate services; annual sales are USD 40.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1138118/000113811826000005/cbre-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 40550000000; grossProfit 6071000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CBRE.US: CBRE Group, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate services and investment company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through Advisory Services, Building Operations and Experience, Project Management, and Real Estate Investments segments. The Advisory Services segment offers strategic advice and execution to owners, investors, and occupiers of real estate in connection with leasing of offices, and industrial and retail space; clients fully integrated property sales services under the CBRE Capital Markets brand; clients commercial mortgage and structured financing services; originates and sells commercial mortgage loans; property management services, such as marketing, building engineering, lease administration, accounting, investment reporting services, financial services on a contractual basis for owners of and investors in office, industrial, and retail properties; and valuation services that include market value appraisals, litigation support, discounted cash flow analyses, and feasibility studies, as well as consulting services, such as property condition reports, hotel advisory, and environmental consulting. The Global Workplace Solutions segment provides facilities management, and project management services comprising building consulting, program, and project and cost management services under the Turner & Townsend brand name. The Real Estate Investments segment offers investment management services under the CBRE Investment Management brand to pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, foundations, endowments, and other institutional investors and development services, such as real estate development and investment activities under the Trammell Crow Company brand to users and investors in commercial real estate, and for their own account. CBRE Group, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15% to 19.7% during 2023–25; it earns 19.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1138118/000113811826000005/cbre-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17632046568342966],[2017,0.232291646995486],[2018,0.2330640885466953],[2019,0.21815573120643483],[2020,0.13848703343026555],[2021,0.23609615083419588],[2022,0.25166774202597697],[2023,0.13409813617736283],[2024,0.16307490759369297],[2025,0.10414519083896337]]; median 0.19723809844493223. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 3 of 10 years; bought back USD 968 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 191205000; owner earnings 747695000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 178042000; owner earnings 919551000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 227803000; owner earnings 1287404000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 293514000; owner earnings 1428067000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 266575000; owner earnings 1019842000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 209851000; owner earnings 2153020000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 260140000; owner earnings 1759948000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 305000000; owner earnings 1303000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 307000000; owner earnings 1362000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1138118/000113811826000005/cbre-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 366000000; owner earnings 1520000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,19133000],[2017,8715000],[2018,13413000],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1138118/000113811826000005/cbre-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 968000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CBRE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.509 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We have concentrations of business with large clients" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1138118/000113811826000005/cbre-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); We have concentrations of business with large clients

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10018120869640057. Price 135.49; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.1454581660924035 → FY2025 5.05400569169486. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $25.76 per share

- 2016-11: $29.04 per share

- 2016-12: $31.49 per share

- 2017-01: $30.36 per share

- 2017-02: $35.62 per share

- 2017-03: $34.79 per share

- 2017-04: $35.81 per share

- 2017-05: $34.88 per share

- 2017-06: $36.40 per share

- 2017-07: $37.99 per share

- 2017-08: $36.08 per share

- 2017-09: $37.88 per share

- 2017-10: $39.32 per share

- 2017-11: $43.36 per share

- 2017-12: $43.31 per share

- 2018-01: $45.69 per share

- 2018-02: $46.75 per share

- 2018-03: $47.22 per share

- 2018-04: $45.31 per share

- 2018-05: $46.19 per share

- 2018-06: $47.74 per share

- 2018-07: $49.80 per share

- 2018-08: $48.81 per share

- 2018-09: $44.10 per share

- 2018-10: $40.29 per share

- 2018-11: $43.68 per share

- 2018-12: $40.04 per share

- 2019-01: $45.75 per share

- 2019-02: $49.76 per share

- 2019-03: $49.45 per share

- 2019-04: $52.07 per share

- 2019-05: $45.70 per share

- 2019-06: $51.30 per share

- 2019-07: $53.01 per share

- 2019-08: $52.27 per share

- 2019-09: $53.01 per share

- 2019-10: $53.55 per share

- 2019-11: $57.02 per share

- 2019-12: $61.29 per share

- 2020-01: $61.05 per share

- 2020-02: $56.14 per share

- 2020-03: $37.71 per share

- 2020-04: $42.93 per share

- 2020-05: $43.98 per share

- 2020-06: $45.22 per share

- 2020-07: $43.81 per share

- 2020-08: $47.03 per share

- 2020-09: $46.97 per share

- 2020-10: $50.40 per share

- 2020-11: $61.14 per share

- 2020-12: $62.72 per share

- 2021-01: $60.98 per share

- 2021-02: $75.77 per share

- 2021-03: $79.11 per share

- 2021-04: $85.20 per share

- 2021-05: $87.78 per share

- 2021-06: $85.73 per share

- 2021-07: $96.46 per share

- 2021-08: $96.30 per share

- 2021-09: $97.36 per share

- 2021-10: $104.08 per share

- 2021-11: $95.57 per share

- 2021-12: $108.51 per share

- 2022-01: $101.34 per share

- 2022-02: $96.85 per share

- 2022-03: $91.52 per share

- 2022-04: $83.04 per share

- 2022-05: $82.84 per share

- 2022-06: $73.61 per share

- 2022-07: $85.62 per share

- 2022-08: $78.96 per share

- 2022-09: $67.51 per share

- 2022-10: $70.94 per share

- 2022-11: $79.60 per share

- 2022-12: $76.96 per share

- 2023-01: $85.51 per share

- 2023-02: $85.14 per share

- 2023-03: $72.81 per share

- 2023-04: $76.66 per share

- 2023-05: $74.92 per share

- 2023-06: $80.71 per share

- 2023-07: $83.31 per share

- 2023-08: $85.05 per share

- 2023-09: $73.86 per share

- 2023-10: $69.34 per share

- 2023-11: $78.96 per share

- 2023-12: $93.09 per share

- 2024-01: $86.31 per share

- 2024-02: $91.89 per share

- 2024-03: $97.24 per share

- 2024-04: $86.89 per share

- 2024-05: $88.07 per share

- 2024-06: $89.11 per share

- 2024-07: $112.71 per share

- 2024-08: $115.14 per share

- 2024-09: $124.48 per share

- 2024-10: $130.97 per share

- 2024-11: $139.99 per share

- 2024-12: $131.29 per share

- 2025-01: $144.74 per share

- 2025-02: $141.94 per share

- 2025-03: $130.78 per share

- 2025-04: $122.18 per share

- 2025-05: $125.02 per share

- 2025-06: $140.12 per share

- 2025-07: $155.74 per share

- 2025-08: $162.12 per share

- 2025-09: $157.56 per share

- 2025-10: $152.43 per share

- 2025-11: $161.83 per share

- 2025-12: $160.79 per share

- 2026-01: $170.33 per share

- 2026-02: $147.66 per share

- 2026-03: $135.46 per share

- 2026-04: $142.73 per share

- 2026-05: $125.04 per share

- 2026-06: $134.69 per share

- 2026-07: $146.81 per share

- 2026-08: $145.81 per share

- 2026-09: $128.47 per share

- 2026-10: $129.67 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $33.73 per share, central $43.14 per share, high $50.22 per share

- FY2017: low $33.06 per share, central $40.65 per share, high $47.23 per share

- FY2018: low $49.51 per share, central $66.75 per share, high $78.04 per share

- FY2019: low $58.46 per share, central $82.90 per share, high $97.12 per share

- FY2020: low $50.76 per share, central $69.72 per share, high $81.11 per share

- FY2021: low $71.88 per share, central $100.32 per share, high $116.88 per share

- FY2022: low $63.60 per share, central $72.07 per share, high $83.35 per share

- FY2023: low $65.79 per share, central $74.58 per share, high $86.29 per share

- FY2024: low $55.62 per share, central $63.11 per share, high $73.08 per share

- FY2025: low $72.54 per share, central $94.33 per share, high $109.78 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1138118/000113811826000005/cbre-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.