# Carnival (CCL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CCL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:18.386Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $26.46 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 2.62×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: -1.58×

- FY2021: -3.72×

- FY2022: -0.36×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.17×

- LTM to May 2026: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 6.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -15.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 29.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 19.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.6%

- FY2017: 9.1%

- FY2018: 10.6%

- FY2019: 9.6%

- FY2020: -18.1%

- FY2021: -15.1%

- FY2022: -9.0%

- FY2023: 4.3%

- FY2024: 9.8%

- FY2025: 11.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- LTM to May 2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.6% vs 9.8%

- Per-share earnings: 3.59 to 1.37 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 6.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 12.6%

- Market cap gain: -$2.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$17B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 6.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 12.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -11.4%

- Per-share value change: -$2.22

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.59

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.37

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.83

- Average buyback yield: 1.8%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $27M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$9.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.72

- FY2017: $3.59

- FY2018: $4.44

- FY2019: $4.32

- FY2020: -$13.21

- FY2021: -$8.46

- FY2022: -$5.16

- FY2023: -$0.06

- FY2024: $1.37

- FY2025: $1.97

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.25×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.0%

- FY2017: -6.7%

- FY2018: -5.7%

- FY2019: -5.5%

- FY2020: -7.3%

- FY2021: -10.1%

- FY2022: -8.6%

- FY2023: -8.9%

- FY2024: -8.2%

- FY2025: -6.7%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 131% since Oct 2023 · "CCL Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Demand Strength, 2027 Bookings" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +2.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:28.665Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-06-24: Earnings call transcript: Carnival Corp Q2 2025 beats estimates, stock surges ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-carnival-corp-q2-2025-beats-estimates-stock-surges-93CH-4108785))

- 2025-12-19: Stock Market Today, Dec. 19: Carnival Jumps on Record Profits and Dividend Reinstatement ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-dec-19-231848466.html))

- 2026-02-03: Carnival (CCL) Climbs 8% on Dividend Payment, Upbeat Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-ccl-climbs-8-dividend-061300726.html))

- 2026-03-27: Carnival Cuts Profit Outlook as Oil Surges Over 60% This Year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/carnival-cuts-profit-outlook-oil-195148944.html))

- 2026-05-28: Carnival Sees Fuel Cost Relief As Travel Interest Shows Early Strength ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carnival-sees-fuel-cost-relief-160451085.html))

- 2026-09-29: Carnival posts record Q3 revenue as cruises navigate higher fuel costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/carnival-posts-record-q3-revenue-134000343.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000007/ccl-20251130.htm; observed 2026-01-27.

- FY2017: $18B 

- FY2018: $19B 

- FY2019: $21B 

- FY2020: $5.6B 

- FY2021: $1.9B 

- FY2022: $12B 

- FY2023: $22B 

- FY2024: $25B 

- FY2025: $27B 

- FY2026: $27B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 29.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000007/ccl-20251130.htm; observed 2026-01-27.

- FY2016: 42.7% 

- FY2017: 40.0% 

- FY2018: 41.3% 

- FY2019: 38.0% 

- FY2022: 3.4% 

- FY2023: 33.7% 

- FY2024: 37.5% 

- FY2025: 29.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in travel services; annual sales are USD 26.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000007/ccl-20251130.htm (filed 2026-01-27); FY2025: revenue 26622000000; grossProfit 7885000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CCL.US: Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches. The company offers its services under the AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn brands. It sells its cruises through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, websites, and onboard future cruise consultants. Carnival Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.6% to 37.5% during 2023–25; it earns 9.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 33.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000007/ccl-20251130.htm (filed 2026-01-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 29.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.10595055310045978],[2017,0.09137680772817251],[2018,0.10593386358442368],[2019,0.09570201379591822],[2020,-0.1813634597954163],[2021,-0.15122485350903248],[2022,-0.09023449319213313],[2023,0.04318846250593924],[2024,0.09835433980956575],[2025,0.11817826512028261]]; median 0.09353941076204536. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 29.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); FY2016: growth capex 1324000000; upkeep 1738000000; owner earnings 2779000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.47643037063691973.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); FY2017: growth capex 1098000000; upkeep 1846000000; owner earnings 2606000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.42133537989255565.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); FY2018: growth capex 1732000000; upkeep 2017000000; owner earnings 3152000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.549492385786802.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); FY2019: growth capex 3269000000; upkeep 2160000000; owner earnings 2990000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0933110367892978.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); FY2024: growth capex 2069000000; upkeep 2557000000; owner earnings 1916000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0798538622129437.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000007/ccl-20251130.htm (filed 2026-01-27); FY2025: growth capex 821000000; upkeep 2790000000; owner earnings 2760000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29746376811594205.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); Incremental return on capital 0.08985391668985353, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,977000000],[2017,1087000000],[2018,1355000000],[2019,1387000000],[2020,689000000],[2021,12422000000],[2022,87000000],[2023,20000000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

"Operational Risk Factors" (SEC filing, Jan 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000007/ccl-20251130.htm (filed 2026-01-27); Operational Risk Factors

### What the price says

The price is 1.4 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); Closing price 26.46 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 18.9885877318117; price multiple 1.393468559837728. FY2025 cash earnings/share 1.9686162624821684. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $49.10 per share

- 2016-11: $51.41 per share

- 2016-12: $52.06 per share

- 2017-01: $55.38 per share

- 2017-02: $55.95 per share

- 2017-03: $58.91 per share

- 2017-04: $61.77 per share

- 2017-05: $64.07 per share

- 2017-06: $65.57 per share

- 2017-07: $66.78 per share

- 2017-08: $69.48 per share

- 2017-09: $64.57 per share

- 2017-10: $66.39 per share

- 2017-11: $65.64 per share

- 2017-12: $66.37 per share

- 2018-01: $71.61 per share

- 2018-02: $66.91 per share

- 2018-03: $65.58 per share

- 2018-04: $63.06 per share

- 2018-05: $62.28 per share

- 2018-06: $57.31 per share

- 2018-07: $59.24 per share

- 2018-08: $61.49 per share

- 2018-09: $63.77 per share

- 2018-10: $56.04 per share

- 2018-11: $60.29 per share

- 2018-12: $49.30 per share

- 2019-01: $57.58 per share

- 2019-02: $57.76 per share

- 2019-03: $50.72 per share

- 2019-04: $54.86 per share

- 2019-05: $51.19 per share

- 2019-06: $46.55 per share

- 2019-07: $47.23 per share

- 2019-08: $44.08 per share

- 2019-09: $43.71 per share

- 2019-10: $42.89 per share

- 2019-11: $45.08 per share

- 2019-12: $50.83 per share

- 2020-01: $43.53 per share

- 2020-02: $33.46 per share

- 2020-03: $13.17 per share

- 2020-04: $15.90 per share

- 2020-05: $15.74 per share

- 2020-06: $16.42 per share

- 2020-07: $13.88 per share

- 2020-08: $16.48 per share

- 2020-09: $15.18 per share

- 2020-10: $13.71 per share

- 2020-11: $19.98 per share

- 2020-12: $21.66 per share

- 2021-01: $18.67 per share

- 2021-02: $26.75 per share

- 2021-03: $26.54 per share

- 2021-04: $27.96 per share

- 2021-05: $29.56 per share

- 2021-06: $26.36 per share

- 2021-07: $21.65 per share

- 2021-08: $24.14 per share

- 2021-09: $25.01 per share

- 2021-10: $22.16 per share

- 2021-11: $17.62 per share

- 2021-12: $20.12 per share

- 2022-01: $19.81 per share

- 2022-02: $20.33 per share

- 2022-03: $20.22 per share

- 2022-04: $17.30 per share

- 2022-05: $13.88 per share

- 2022-06: $8.65 per share

- 2022-07: $9.06 per share

- 2022-08: $9.46 per share

- 2022-09: $7.03 per share

- 2022-10: $9.06 per share

- 2022-11: $9.93 per share

- 2022-12: $8.06 per share

- 2023-01: $10.82 per share

- 2023-02: $10.62 per share

- 2023-03: $10.15 per share

- 2023-04: $9.21 per share

- 2023-05: $11.23 per share

- 2023-06: $18.83 per share

- 2023-07: $18.84 per share

- 2023-08: $15.82 per share

- 2023-09: $13.72 per share

- 2023-10: $11.46 per share

- 2023-11: $15.06 per share

- 2023-12: $18.54 per share

- 2024-01: $16.58 per share

- 2024-02: $15.86 per share

- 2024-03: $16.34 per share

- 2024-04: $14.82 per share

- 2024-05: $15.08 per share

- 2024-06: $18.72 per share

- 2024-07: $16.66 per share

- 2024-08: $16.50 per share

- 2024-09: $18.48 per share

- 2024-10: $22.00 per share

- 2024-11: $25.43 per share

- 2024-12: $24.92 per share

- 2025-01: $27.67 per share

- 2025-02: $23.93 per share

- 2025-03: $19.53 per share

- 2025-04: $18.34 per share

- 2025-05: $23.22 per share

- 2025-06: $28.12 per share

- 2025-07: $29.77 per share

- 2025-08: $31.89 per share

- 2025-09: $28.91 per share

- 2025-10: $28.83 per share

- 2025-11: $25.78 per share

- 2025-12: $30.54 per share

- 2026-01: $30.02 per share

- 2026-02: $31.55 per share

- 2026-03: $25.88 per share

- 2026-04: $26.51 per share

- 2026-05: $28.06 per share

- 2026-06: $28.57 per share

- 2026-07: $27.81 per share

- 2026-08: $23.89 per share

- 2026-09: $24.54 per share

- 2026-10: $26.73 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $17.94 per share, central $21.58 per share, high $25.08 per share

- FY2017: low $19.51 per share, central $22.31 per share, high $25.90 per share

- FY2018: low $47.33 per share, central $57.90 per share, high $67.37 per share

- FY2019: low $55.51 per share, central $71.82 per share, high $83.95 per share

- FY2020: low $23.87 per share, central $25.49 per share, high $27.65 per share

- FY2021: low $10.77 per share, central $11.14 per share, high $11.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:58.038Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000007/ccl-20251130.htm); period 2025-11-30, filed 2026-01-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.