# CareDx (CDNA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CDNA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:19.190Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $66.68 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 8

- Operating margin variation: 1.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.42×

- FY2018: -0.20×

- FY2019: -0.19×

- FY2020: -0.12×

- FY2021: -0.10×

- FY2022: -0.24×

- FY2023: -0.73×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: -0.07×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.01×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -44.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -239.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 64.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 67.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -35.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -239.2%

- FY2017: -57.4%

- FY2018: -63.2%

- FY2019: -45.8%

- FY2020: -37.7%

- FY2021: -23.1%

- FY2022: -43.8%

- FY2023: -811.6%

- FY2024: 38.3%

- FY2025: -17.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$233M

- Net income, five-year total: -$266M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -34.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.7%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$31M

- FY2022: -$82M

- FY2023: -$180M

- FY2024: $66M

- FY2025: -$6.9M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -63.2% vs -17.7%

- Per-share earnings: -2.38 to -0.40 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 16.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Market cap gain: $902M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$523M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 16.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $1.98

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.38

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.40

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.40

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $77M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$449M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -63.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -17.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.39

- FY2017: -$2.38

- FY2018: -$1.31

- FY2019: -$0.52

- FY2020: -$0.40

- FY2021: -$0.59

- FY2022: -$1.44

- FY2023: -$3.54

- FY2024: $0.93

- FY2025: -$0.40

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -15.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.58×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 82.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.24×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -29.9%

- FY2017: -49.3%

- FY2018: -32.7%

- FY2019: -12.7%

- FY2020: -14.2%

- FY2021: -2.0%

- FY2022: -9.5%

- FY2023: -36.8%

- FY2024: 3.0%

- FY2025: -15.3%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 1132% since Oct 2023 · "CareDx narrows 2025 revenue guidance to $367M-$373M as kidney surveillance protocols expand" (seekingalpha.com, Aug 2025) · sales +20.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:28.877Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-08-07: CareDx narrows 2025 revenue guidance to $367M-$373M as kidney surveillance protocols expand ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4480878-caredx-narrows-2025-revenue-guidance-to-367m-373m-as-kidney-surveillance-protocols-expand?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +20.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217234/000121723426000018/cdna-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $48M 

- FY2018: $77M 

- FY2019: $127M 

- FY2020: $192M 

- FY2021: $296M 

- FY2022: $322M 

- FY2023: $280M 

- FY2024: $334M 

- FY2025: $380M 

- FY2026: $458M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 67.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217234/000121723426000018/cdna-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 48.0% 

- FY2017: 55.8% 

- FY2018: 56.9% 

- FY2019: 64.2% 

- FY2020: 67.2% 

- FY2021: 67.1% 

- FY2022: 65.1% 

- FY2023: 63.6% 

- FY2024: 67.2% 

- FY2025: 67.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in diagnostics & research; annual sales are USD 379.8 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217234/000121723426000018/cdna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 379805000; grossProfit 256566000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CDNA.US: CareDx, Inc. provides solutions for improving outcomes for transplant patients and advancing organ health in the United States and internationally. The company provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression profiling solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. It also offers HeartCare, which provides information about distinct biological processes, such as immune quiescence, active injury, acute cellular rejection, and antibody mediated rejection; HistoMap Kidney, a solution that identifies allograft rejection and type of rejection in kidney transplant biopsy tissue; and AlloHeme, a monitoring test that predicts relapse in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes. In addition, the company provides QTYPE that enables precision in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing; Olerup SSP, which is used to type HLA alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. Further, it offers AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; Allocell, a solution that monitors the pharmacokinetics of engraftment and persistence of cells for patients who have received allogeneic cell therapy; and XynQAPI, MedActionPlan, CareDx pharmacy, AlloHome, and HLA Data Systems software solutions. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 63.6% to 67.6% during 2023–25; it lost 44.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 63.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 67.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217234/000121723426000018/cdna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 67.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-2.392106415767702],[2017,-0.5741185317815577],[2018,-0.6317891062169516],[2019,-0.45808684142104145],[2020,-0.3768899430338197],[2021,-0.23077378144654087],[2022,-0.43800604468182863],[2023,-8.11602778479414],[2024,0.38300658901464407],[2025,-0.1772341187103471]]; median -0.44804644305143504. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 87.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 6484000; owner earnings 65822000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,26760000],[2019,4418000],[2020,1368000],[2021,2139000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217234/000121723426000018/cdna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 87768000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CDNA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.102 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 9.4 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Closing price 66.675 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 7.127462765877791; price multiple 9.354661285528099. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.12856662605555153. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $3.65 per share

- 2016-11: $3.60 per share

- 2016-12: $2.70 per share

- 2017-01: $2.40 per share

- 2017-02: $2.10 per share

- 2017-03: $1.40 per share

- 2017-04: $0.87 per share

- 2017-05: $1.03 per share

- 2017-06: $1.11 per share

- 2017-07: $1.33 per share

- 2017-08: $2.86 per share

- 2017-09: $3.70 per share

- 2017-10: $5.85 per share

- 2017-11: $7.26 per share

- 2017-12: $7.34 per share

- 2018-01: $6.00 per share

- 2018-02: $5.82 per share

- 2018-03: $7.97 per share

- 2018-04: $9.79 per share

- 2018-05: $13.24 per share

- 2018-06: $12.24 per share

- 2018-07: $13.46 per share

- 2018-08: $24.31 per share

- 2018-09: $28.85 per share

- 2018-10: $26.11 per share

- 2018-11: $29.27 per share

- 2018-12: $25.14 per share

- 2019-01: $28.03 per share

- 2019-02: $31.12 per share

- 2019-03: $31.52 per share

- 2019-04: $27.21 per share

- 2019-05: $31.62 per share

- 2019-06: $35.99 per share

- 2019-07: $32.77 per share

- 2019-08: $22.82 per share

- 2019-09: $22.61 per share

- 2019-10: $26.21 per share

- 2019-11: $20.52 per share

- 2019-12: $21.57 per share

- 2020-01: $24.16 per share

- 2020-02: $23.31 per share

- 2020-03: $21.83 per share

- 2020-04: $25.38 per share

- 2020-05: $32.12 per share

- 2020-06: $35.43 per share

- 2020-07: $33.35 per share

- 2020-08: $34.15 per share

- 2020-09: $37.94 per share

- 2020-10: $49.05 per share

- 2020-11: $57.17 per share

- 2020-12: $72.45 per share

- 2021-01: $76.43 per share

- 2021-02: $79.08 per share

- 2021-03: $68.09 per share

- 2021-04: $79.07 per share

- 2021-05: $80.40 per share

- 2021-06: $91.52 per share

- 2021-07: $84.04 per share

- 2021-08: $73.28 per share

- 2021-09: $63.37 per share

- 2021-10: $51.00 per share

- 2021-11: $43.14 per share

- 2021-12: $45.48 per share

- 2022-01: $41.80 per share

- 2022-02: $38.38 per share

- 2022-03: $36.99 per share

- 2022-04: $30.44 per share

- 2022-05: $25.15 per share

- 2022-06: $21.48 per share

- 2022-07: $23.79 per share

- 2022-08: $19.59 per share

- 2022-09: $17.02 per share

- 2022-10: $19.91 per share

- 2022-11: $12.95 per share

- 2022-12: $11.41 per share

- 2023-01: $14.94 per share

- 2023-02: $16.82 per share

- 2023-03: $9.14 per share

- 2023-04: $8.09 per share

- 2023-05: $7.98 per share

- 2023-06: $8.50 per share

- 2023-07: $10.91 per share

- 2023-08: $9.31 per share

- 2023-09: $7.00 per share

- 2023-10: $5.41 per share

- 2023-11: $9.71 per share

- 2023-12: $12.00 per share

- 2024-01: $8.56 per share

- 2024-02: $10.64 per share

- 2024-03: $10.59 per share

- 2024-04: $7.76 per share

- 2024-05: $13.01 per share

- 2024-06: $15.53 per share

- 2024-07: $19.99 per share

- 2024-08: $30.73 per share

- 2024-09: $31.23 per share

- 2024-10: $22.13 per share

- 2024-11: $24.54 per share

- 2024-12: $21.41 per share

- 2025-01: $23.30 per share

- 2025-02: $22.15 per share

- 2025-03: $17.75 per share

- 2025-04: $16.88 per share

- 2025-05: $16.99 per share

- 2025-06: $19.54 per share

- 2025-07: $12.29 per share

- 2025-08: $13.66 per share

- 2025-09: $14.54 per share

- 2025-10: $15.00 per share

- 2025-11: $17.87 per share

- 2025-12: $18.84 per share

- 2026-01: $20.55 per share

- 2026-02: $18.76 per share

- 2026-03: $17.36 per share

- 2026-04: $20.81 per share

- 2026-05: $22.82 per share

- 2026-06: $28.50 per share

- 2026-07: $43.71 per share

- 2026-08: $50.11 per share

- 2026-09: $65.00 per share

- 2026-10: $66.68 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217234/000121723426000018/cdna-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.