# Celanese (CE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:20.419Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $46.44 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $217.29 per share, central $273.34 per share, high $317.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value $273.34 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:20.419Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 53.1% at the stated quote. About 53.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.59×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.17×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: -0.07×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.9pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 19.1%

- FY2017: 14.7%

- FY2018: 21.6%

- FY2019: 14.5%

- FY2020: 12.2%

- FY2021: 25.8%

- FY2022: 11.4%

- FY2023: 13.6%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: 5.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.32×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 90.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 25.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.07×

- FY2024: 0.75×

- FY2025: 0.62×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.1% vs 5.2%

- Per-share earnings: 6.09 to -10.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Market cap gain: -$6.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$16.73

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.09

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$10.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.25

- Average buyback yield: 4.5%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $10B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $6.18

- FY2017: $6.09

- FY2018: $8.91

- FY2019: $6.84

- FY2020: $16.75

- FY2021: $16.86

- FY2022: $17.34

- FY2023: $17.92

- FY2024: -$13.93

- FY2025: -$10.64

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.82×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.1%

- FY2017: 0.4%

- FY2018: -3.8%

- FY2019: -6.4%

- FY2020: 10.4%

- FY2021: 1.1%

- FY2022: 0.3%

- FY2023: 0.2%

- FY2024: -10.9%

- FY2025: -10.7%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Ron Muhlenkamp](https://gigainvestors.com/MUHL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 73% since Mar 2024 · "These benefits were partially offset by higher feedstock and energy costs across both businesses." (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales -7.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:29.146Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 22.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-30: Celanese Corporation (CE) Drops 13% Amid Another Inventory Destocking Disclosure -- Hagens Berman ([globenewswire.com](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/30/3158814/32716/en/Celanese-Corporation-CE-Drops-13-Amid-Another-Inventory-Destocking-Disclosure-Hagens-Berman.html))

- 2025-11-08: Celanese (CE) Valuation Check: Market Reaction to Heavy Losses, Asset Write-Downs, and Facility Closure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/celanese-ce-valuation-check-market-191436073.html))

- 2026-03-15: Celanese Price Hikes Test Earnings Power And Supply Chain Resilience ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/celanese-price-hikes-test-earnings-170536464.html))

- 2026-08-05: Celanese Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Pricing and Execution ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/celanese-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-141200112.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000031/ce-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: $5.4B 

- FY2017: $6.1B 

- FY2018: $7.2B 

- FY2019: $6.3B 

- FY2020: $5.7B 

- FY2021: $8.5B 

- FY2022: $9.7B 

- FY2023: $11B 

- FY2024: $10B 

- FY2025: $9.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 18.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000031/ce-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 26.1% 

- FY2017: 24.7% 

- FY2018: 27.6% 

- FY2019: 25.5% 

- FY2020: 22.9% 

- FY2021: 31.4% 

- FY2022: 24.6% 

- FY2023: 23.8% 

- FY2024: 22.9% 

- FY2025: 18.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in chemicals; annual sales are USD 9.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000031/ce-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 9544000000; grossProfit 1791000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CE.US: Celanese Corporation produces and sells engineered polymers worldwide. It operates through Engineered Materials and Acetyl Chain segments. The company offers ethylene acrylic elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate pharmaceutical grade copolymers, liquid crystal polymers, long-fiber reinforced thermoplastics, nylon and polypropylene compounds and formulations, polyoxymethylene, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene, and thermoplastic elastomers, polyesters, and vulcanizates for use in appliance, automotive, construction, consumer apparel, consumer electronics, electrical, energy storage, filtration equipment, industrial, medical, and telecommunication applications. It also provides acetic acid and anhydride, acetate flakes and tows, butyl acetates, emulsion polymers, ethyl acetates, ethylene vinyl acetate resins and compounds, formaldehydes, redispersible powders, and vinyl acetate monomers for use in adhesives, automotive parts, coatings, consumer goods, external thermal insulation composite systems, films, filtration, flexible packaging, food and beverage, food packaging, inks, lamination, lubricants, paints, paper finishing, pharmaceuticals, plasticizers, plasters and renders, solvents, textiles, and tiling applications. The company offers its products under the Amcel, AOPlus, Ateva, Avicor, Celanese, Celanex, Celanyl, Celcon, Celstran, Celvolit, Clarifoil, Crastin, Dur-O-Set, Dytron, ECOMID, EcoVAE, Elotex, Factor, Flexbond, Forprene, FRIANYL, Fortron, Geolast, GHR, GUR, Hostaform, Hytrel, Laprene, Melinex, MetaLX, Mowilith, MT, Mylar, NILAMID, Nylfor, OmniLon, Pibifor, Pibiter, Polifor, Resyn, Rynite, Santoprene, SlideX, Sofprene, Sofpur, Talcoprene, Tarnoform, Tecnoprene, TufCOR, Tynex, Vamac, VAntage, Vectra, Vinac, Vinamul, VitalDose, Zenite, and Zytel brands. It sells its products directly to customers and through distributors; and original equipment manufacturers and suppliers. It has a strategic partnership with VIGOR Precision Ltd. Celanese Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Irving,

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.8% to 23.8% during 2023–25; it earns 14% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 23.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000031/ce-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.19051964774105018],[2017,0.14693436629444123],[2018,0.21572462652086863],[2019,0.14456450648615898],[2020,0.1221615907843397],[2021,0.25801596584514735],[2022,0.11376207380500289],[2023,0.13625716824166062],[2024,-0.04693402659393113],[2025,0.05246601437353884]]; median 0.1404108373639098. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 246000000; owner earnings 943612334.8017621. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 267000000; owner earnings 881000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 337000000; owner earnings 1212945812.8078818. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 370000000; owner earnings 838194444.4444444. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 364000000; owner earnings 1977000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 89000000; upkeep 378000000; owner earnings 1890000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04708994708994709.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 65000000; upkeep 478000000; owner earnings 1894000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.034318901795142555.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 568000000; owner earnings 2103000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,201000000],[2017,241000000],[2018,280000000],[2019,300000000],[2020,293000000],[2021,304000000],[2022,297000000],[2023,305000000],[2024,307000000],[2025,13000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.365 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 22.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.32214103245956494. Price 46.44; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.9652766037865569 → FY2025 -6.591783097687587. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $72.92 per share

- 2016-11: $79.32 per share

- 2016-12: $78.74 per share

- 2017-01: $84.40 per share

- 2017-02: $89.17 per share

- 2017-03: $89.85 per share

- 2017-04: $87.04 per share

- 2017-05: $86.55 per share

- 2017-06: $94.94 per share

- 2017-07: $96.17 per share

- 2017-08: $97.02 per share

- 2017-09: $104.27 per share

- 2017-10: $104.31 per share

- 2017-11: $107.24 per share

- 2017-12: $107.08 per share

- 2018-01: $108.16 per share

- 2018-02: $100.86 per share

- 2018-03: $100.21 per share

- 2018-04: $108.67 per share

- 2018-05: $112.92 per share

- 2018-06: $111.06 per share

- 2018-07: $118.11 per share

- 2018-08: $116.83 per share

- 2018-09: $114.00 per share

- 2018-10: $96.94 per share

- 2018-11: $100.93 per share

- 2018-12: $89.97 per share

- 2019-01: $95.76 per share

- 2019-02: $102.29 per share

- 2019-03: $98.61 per share

- 2019-04: $107.89 per share

- 2019-05: $94.93 per share

- 2019-06: $107.80 per share

- 2019-07: $112.17 per share

- 2019-08: $113.37 per share

- 2019-09: $122.29 per share

- 2019-10: $121.15 per share

- 2019-11: $125.57 per share

- 2019-12: $123.12 per share

- 2020-01: $103.50 per share

- 2020-02: $93.74 per share

- 2020-03: $73.39 per share

- 2020-04: $83.07 per share

- 2020-05: $89.91 per share

- 2020-06: $86.34 per share

- 2020-07: $97.20 per share

- 2020-08: $101.15 per share

- 2020-09: $107.45 per share

- 2020-10: $113.51 per share

- 2020-11: $129.33 per share

- 2020-12: $129.94 per share

- 2021-01: $122.15 per share

- 2021-02: $138.91 per share

- 2021-03: $149.81 per share

- 2021-04: $156.65 per share

- 2021-05: $165.45 per share

- 2021-06: $151.60 per share

- 2021-07: $155.77 per share

- 2021-08: $158.60 per share

- 2021-09: $150.64 per share

- 2021-10: $161.51 per share

- 2021-11: $151.36 per share

- 2021-12: $168.06 per share

- 2022-01: $155.71 per share

- 2022-02: $139.28 per share

- 2022-03: $142.87 per share

- 2022-04: $146.94 per share

- 2022-05: $156.52 per share

- 2022-06: $117.61 per share

- 2022-07: $117.51 per share

- 2022-08: $110.86 per share

- 2022-09: $90.34 per share

- 2022-10: $96.12 per share

- 2022-11: $107.30 per share

- 2022-12: $102.24 per share

- 2023-01: $123.20 per share

- 2023-02: $116.23 per share

- 2023-03: $108.89 per share

- 2023-04: $106.24 per share

- 2023-05: $104.02 per share

- 2023-06: $115.80 per share

- 2023-07: $125.39 per share

- 2023-08: $126.36 per share

- 2023-09: $125.52 per share

- 2023-10: $114.51 per share

- 2023-11: $138.66 per share

- 2023-12: $155.37 per share

- 2024-01: $146.29 per share

- 2024-02: $151.97 per share

- 2024-03: $171.86 per share

- 2024-04: $153.61 per share

- 2024-05: $152.04 per share

- 2024-06: $134.89 per share

- 2024-07: $141.15 per share

- 2024-08: $130.60 per share

- 2024-09: $135.96 per share

- 2024-10: $125.97 per share

- 2024-11: $73.21 per share

- 2024-12: $69.21 per share

- 2025-01: $71.04 per share

- 2025-02: $50.94 per share

- 2025-03: $56.77 per share

- 2025-04: $44.51 per share

- 2025-05: $52.83 per share

- 2025-06: $55.33 per share

- 2025-07: $52.23 per share

- 2025-08: $47.63 per share

- 2025-09: $42.08 per share

- 2025-10: $38.44 per share

- 2025-11: $41.65 per share

- 2025-12: $42.28 per share

- 2026-01: $44.44 per share

- 2026-02: $49.94 per share

- 2026-03: $65.77 per share

- 2026-04: $67.76 per share

- 2026-05: $53.13 per share

- 2026-06: $46.00 per share

- 2026-07: $44.72 per share

- 2026-08: $45.48 per share

- 2026-09: $44.37 per share

- 2026-10: $46.44 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $19.31 per share, central $21.45 per share, high $24.29 per share

- FY2017: low $62.97 per share, central $71.23 per share, high $82.22 per share

- FY2018: low $89.91 per share, central $107.87 per share, high $125.26 per share

- FY2019: low $89.96 per share, central $112.16 per share, high $130.43 per share

- FY2020: low $100.04 per share, central $112.24 per share, high $128.47 per share

- FY2021: low $161.78 per share, central $206.89 per share, high $241.24 per share

- FY2022: low $220.58 per share, central $274.44 per share, high $318.40 per share

- FY2023: low $253.80 per share, central $320.60 per share, high $372.17 per share

- FY2024: low $208.26 per share, central $236.02 per share, high $272.97 per share

- FY2025: low $192.87 per share, central $218.11 per share, high $251.72 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000031/ce-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.