# Constellation Energy (CEG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CEG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:20.870Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $275.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $67.67 per share, central $76.82 per share, high $89.01 per share. Buy at or below the central value $76.82 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:20.870Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.9% at the stated quote. About 4.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.90×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: -0.02×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.12×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.5%

- FY2017: 4.3%

- FY2018: 4.6%

- FY2019: 4.3%

- FY2020: 0.9%

- FY2021: -1.4%

- FY2022: 2.4%

- FY2023: 5.4%

- FY2024: 19.9%

- FY2025: 10.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.30×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $9.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -5.14×

- FY2022: -3.61×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.3% vs 10.6%

- Per-share earnings: 4.20 to 7.39 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Per-share value growth: 7.3%

- Per-share value change: $3.18

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.20

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.39

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $13B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.48

- FY2017: $8.31

- FY2018: $1.13

- FY2019: $3.44

- FY2020: $1.80

- FY2021: -$0.63

- FY2022: -$0.49

- FY2023: $5.01

- FY2024: $11.90

- FY2025: $7.39

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.83×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.4%

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: -7.3%

- FY2019: -3.6%

- FY2020: 0.0%

- FY2021: 2.4%

- FY2022: 4.7%

- FY2023: 13.6%

- FY2024: 11.7%

- FY2025: -3.4%

## Holders

- [Dennis Hong](https://gigainvestors.com/SP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 27% since Oct 2025 · "Does Constellation Energy's Narrowed Outlook and Rising Costs Shift the Long-Term Story for CEG?" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +8.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:29.304Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 17.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-23: Constellation Energy (CEG) Secures AI Data Center Deals as Carbon-Free Power Demand Reshapes Utilities ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/constellation-energy-ceg-secures-ai-221415752.html))

- 2026-02-06: Constellation Energy Expands For AI Power Demand As Valuation Draws Scrutiny ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/constellation-energy-expands-ai-power-030844492.html))

- 2026-03-31: Constellation Energy slips after forecasting 2026 profit below consensus ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4570587-constellation-energy-slips-after-forecasting-2026-profit-below-consensus?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-30: Constellation Energy Stock Jumps on AI Boom. Why Power Producers Will Gain. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e36aafc1-e5a4-3930-b1db-7326d5768a77/constellation-energy-stock.html))

- 2026-05-11: Constellation Energy Beats Earnings Estimates. Its Outlook Is Capping Stock Gains. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/4f339272-a889-3b63-b51c-3c933863f073/constellation-energy-beats.html))

- 2026-10-09: Constellation Energy (CEG) Is Up 10.1% After Google Backs 20-Year Nuclear Power Expansion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/constellation-energy-ceg-10-1-180831306.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +8.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: $18B 

- FY2017: $19B 

- FY2018: $20B 

- FY2019: $19B 

- FY2020: $18B 

- FY2021: $20B 

- FY2022: $24B 

- FY2023: $25B 

- FY2024: $24B 

- FY2025: $26B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 18.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 19.1% 

- FY2017: 16.8% 

- FY2018: 16.2% 

- FY2019: 17.4% 

- FY2020: 18.6% 

- FY2021: 14.0% 

- FY2022: 8.7% 

- FY2023: 13.0% 

- FY2024: 25.4% 

- FY2025: 18.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities independent power producers; annual sales are USD 25.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 25533000000; grossProfit 4693000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CEG.US: Constellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. The company has approximately 31,676 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 13% to 25.4% during 2023–25; it earns 4.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 13%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 25.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.02521286660359508],[2017,0.04255797231709509],[2018,0.045774647887323945],[2019,0.0433580979355064],[2020,0.009257135833779252],[2021,-0.01364601662520478],[2022,0.023965802537231108],[2023,0.053962770071675346],[2024,0.19880055185876921],[2025,0.1055988260476136]]; median 0.042958035126300746. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 15% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3078000000; owner earnings 152000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2259000000; owner earnings 3245000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2242000000; owner earnings 947000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1845000000; owner earnings 2117000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1747000000; owner earnings 1523000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1329000000; owner earnings 1053000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1689000000; owner earnings 578000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2422000000; owner earnings 1715000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2565000000; owner earnings 3884000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 348000000; upkeep 2601000000; owner earnings 2319000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1500646830530401.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,922000000],[2017,659000000],[2018,1001000000],[2019,899000000],[2020,1734000000],[2021,1832000000],[2022,185000000],[2023,366000000],[2024,444000000],[2025,486000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 400000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CEG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.335 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Cost and Availability of Fuel." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Cost and Availability of Fuel.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 17.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.23706758576858722. Price 275; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.204719583205639 → FY2025 7.385350318471337. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2022-01: $48.00 per share

- 2022-02: $45.98 per share

- 2022-03: $56.25 per share

- 2022-04: $59.21 per share

- 2022-05: $62.08 per share

- 2022-06: $57.26 per share

- 2022-07: $66.10 per share

- 2022-08: $81.59 per share

- 2022-09: $83.19 per share

- 2022-10: $94.54 per share

- 2022-11: $96.12 per share

- 2022-12: $86.21 per share

- 2023-01: $85.36 per share

- 2023-02: $74.89 per share

- 2023-03: $78.50 per share

- 2023-04: $77.40 per share

- 2023-05: $84.02 per share

- 2023-06: $91.55 per share

- 2023-07: $96.65 per share

- 2023-08: $104.16 per share

- 2023-09: $109.08 per share

- 2023-10: $112.92 per share

- 2023-11: $121.04 per share

- 2023-12: $116.89 per share

- 2024-01: $122.00 per share

- 2024-02: $168.45 per share

- 2024-03: $184.85 per share

- 2024-04: $185.94 per share

- 2024-05: $217.25 per share

- 2024-06: $200.27 per share

- 2024-07: $189.80 per share

- 2024-08: $196.70 per share

- 2024-09: $260.02 per share

- 2024-10: $262.96 per share

- 2024-11: $256.56 per share

- 2024-12: $223.71 per share

- 2025-01: $299.98 per share

- 2025-02: $250.55 per share

- 2025-03: $201.63 per share

- 2025-04: $223.44 per share

- 2025-05: $306.15 per share

- 2025-06: $322.76 per share

- 2025-07: $347.84 per share

- 2025-08: $307.98 per share

- 2025-09: $329.07 per share

- 2025-10: $377.00 per share

- 2025-11: $364.36 per share

- 2025-12: $353.27 per share

- 2026-01: $280.68 per share

- 2026-02: $329.88 per share

- 2026-03: $279.25 per share

- 2026-04: $313.00 per share

- 2026-05: $287.75 per share

- 2026-06: $248.37 per share

- 2026-07: $262.75 per share

- 2026-08: $274.77 per share

- 2026-09: $254.02 per share

- 2026-10: $295.79 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $28.56 per share, central $32.49 per share, high $37.73 per share

- FY2017: low $42.56 per share, central $48.41 per share, high $56.20 per share

- FY2018: low $33.91 per share, central $38.44 per share, high $44.48 per share

- FY2019: low $45.40 per share, central $51.66 per share, high $59.99 per share

- FY2020: low $50.96 per share, central $57.99 per share, high $67.34 per share

- FY2021: low $57.22 per share, central $65.07 per share, high $75.51 per share

- FY2022: low $43.51 per share, central $49.51 per share, high $57.50 per share

- FY2023: low $57.86 per share, central $65.83 per share, high $76.45 per share

- FY2024: low $64.38 per share, central $72.14 per share, high $82.47 per share

- FY2025: low $71.48 per share, central $79.92 per share, high $91.14 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.