# Century Aluminum (CENX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CENX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:21.387Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $34.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 7

- Operating margin variation: 5.33×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.18×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: -0.03×

- FY2019: -0.04×

- FY2020: -0.05×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: -0.05×

- FY2023: 0.01×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -0.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -10.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 2.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -5.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -21.0%

- FY2017: 8.8%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -6.1%

- FY2020: -7.9%

- FY2021: 6.0%

- FY2022: -10.9%

- FY2023: 3.4%

- FY2024: 10.2%

- FY2025: 13.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.87×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $134M

- Net income, five-year total: $154M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 57.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.47×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -4.6% vs 10.2%

- Per-share earnings: -0.55 to 0.44 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Market cap gain: $3.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$46M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.98

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.55

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.44

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$320M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -4.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.90

- FY2017: $0.55

- FY2018: -$0.76

- FY2019: -$0.91

- FY2020: -$1.38

- FY2021: -$1.85

- FY2022: -$0.15

- FY2023: -$0.47

- FY2024: $3.42

- FY2025: $0.44

### accounting: fail

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -6.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.57×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 25.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.39×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -18.9%

- FY2017: 0.7%

- FY2018: 0.2%

- FY2019: -6.6%

- FY2020: -11.9%

- FY2021: -6.5%

- FY2022: -2.7%

- FY2023: -8.1%

- FY2024: 18.6%

- FY2025: -6.2%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 48% since May 2026 · "Century Aluminum Company CENX has been grappling with rising costs and expenses over time." (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +13.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:29.401Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-06-02: Century Aluminum surges as Trump boosts aluminum tariffs; new smelter project planned ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4454505-century-aluminum-surges-as-trump-boosts-aluminum-tariffs-new-smelter-project-planned?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-02: Century Aluminum (CENX): Fresh Earnings Upgrades Spark New Debate Over Share Valuation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/century-aluminum-cenx-fresh-earnings-153041746.html))

- 2025-11-07: Century Aluminum projects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $170M-$180M while advancing Mt. Holly expansion ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4518850-century-aluminum-projects-q4-adjusted-ebitda-of-170m-180m-while-advancing-mt-holly-expansion?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-26: Century Aluminum (CENX) Is Up 5.6% After Unveiling Ambitious Oklahoma Smelter and Hub Plans ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/century-aluminum-cenx-5-6-110944864.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +13.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-03.

- FY2016: $1.3B 

- FY2017: $1.6B 

- FY2018: $1.9B 

- FY2019: $1.8B 

- FY2020: $1.6B 

- FY2021: $2.2B 

- FY2022: $2.8B 

- FY2023: $2.2B 

- FY2024: $2.2B 

- FY2025: $2.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 10.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-03.

- FY2017: 8.1% 

- FY2021: 5.6% 

- FY2022: 1.7% 

- FY2023: 4.2% 

- FY2024: 8.3% 

- FY2025: 10.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aluminum; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: revenue 2527900000; grossProfit 256399999; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 4.2% to 10.1% during 2023–25; it lost 0.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 4.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 8.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.21030456541234424],[2017,0.08820561718061282],[2018,-0.04647058823529412],[2019,-0.06085328226407065],[2020,-0.07902945196967814],[2021,0.060200900588846556],[2022,-0.10925470008952551],[2023,0.033925725860904796],[2024,0.1018045375408903],[2025,0.1297709923664122]]; median -0.006272431187194661. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 16.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 57.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 21944000; owner earnings 110836000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2024: growth capex 500000; upkeep 81800000; owner earnings 336800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0014845605700712589.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: growth capex 7000000; upkeep 91800000; owner earnings 41800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1674641148325359.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Incremental return on capital 0.5726079513260796, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: cash repurchases 4700000 USD.

### What the price says

The price is 1.3 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Closing price 34.2 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 26.525708289611753; price multiple 1.2893152419003917. FY2025 cash earnings/share 0.4386149003147954. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $7.31 per share

- 2016-11: $9.22 per share

- 2016-12: $8.56 per share

- 2017-01: $15.40 per share

- 2017-02: $14.09 per share

- 2017-03: $12.69 per share

- 2017-04: $13.64 per share

- 2017-05: $14.42 per share

- 2017-06: $15.58 per share

- 2017-07: $16.78 per share

- 2017-08: $19.52 per share

- 2017-09: $16.58 per share

- 2017-10: $14.00 per share

- 2017-11: $13.25 per share

- 2017-12: $19.64 per share

- 2018-01: $22.25 per share

- 2018-02: $19.05 per share

- 2018-03: $16.54 per share

- 2018-04: $17.47 per share

- 2018-05: $17.72 per share

- 2018-06: $15.75 per share

- 2018-07: $12.81 per share

- 2018-08: $12.62 per share

- 2018-09: $11.97 per share

- 2018-10: $7.94 per share

- 2018-11: $8.98 per share

- 2018-12: $7.31 per share

- 2019-01: $9.20 per share

- 2019-02: $8.63 per share

- 2019-03: $8.88 per share

- 2019-04: $8.41 per share

- 2019-05: $5.59 per share

- 2019-06: $6.91 per share

- 2019-07: $7.19 per share

- 2019-08: $5.51 per share

- 2019-09: $6.64 per share

- 2019-10: $5.83 per share

- 2019-11: $7.05 per share

- 2019-12: $7.52 per share

- 2020-01: $5.29 per share

- 2020-02: $5.80 per share

- 2020-03: $3.62 per share

- 2020-04: $4.35 per share

- 2020-05: $5.96 per share

- 2020-06: $7.13 per share

- 2020-07: $8.71 per share

- 2020-08: $9.87 per share

- 2020-09: $7.12 per share

- 2020-10: $6.58 per share

- 2020-11: $10.15 per share

- 2020-12: $11.03 per share

- 2021-01: $9.75 per share

- 2021-02: $13.73 per share

- 2021-03: $17.66 per share

- 2021-04: $15.66 per share

- 2021-05: $13.61 per share

- 2021-06: $12.89 per share

- 2021-07: $14.56 per share

- 2021-08: $12.82 per share

- 2021-09: $13.45 per share

- 2021-10: $13.21 per share

- 2021-11: $13.23 per share

- 2021-12: $16.56 per share

- 2022-01: $15.34 per share

- 2022-02: $23.62 per share

- 2022-03: $26.31 per share

- 2022-04: $16.87 per share

- 2022-05: $11.80 per share

- 2022-06: $7.37 per share

- 2022-07: $7.89 per share

- 2022-08: $7.72 per share

- 2022-09: $5.28 per share

- 2022-10: $7.21 per share

- 2022-11: $9.01 per share

- 2022-12: $8.18 per share

- 2023-01: $11.24 per share

- 2023-02: $12.07 per share

- 2023-03: $10.00 per share

- 2023-04: $8.59 per share

- 2023-05: $7.84 per share

- 2023-06: $8.72 per share

- 2023-07: $9.30 per share

- 2023-08: $7.44 per share

- 2023-09: $7.19 per share

- 2023-10: $6.61 per share

- 2023-11: $7.86 per share

- 2023-12: $12.14 per share

- 2024-01: $11.15 per share

- 2024-02: $10.47 per share

- 2024-03: $15.39 per share

- 2024-04: $17.35 per share

- 2024-05: $18.33 per share

- 2024-06: $16.75 per share

- 2024-07: $15.11 per share

- 2024-08: $14.36 per share

- 2024-09: $16.23 per share

- 2024-10: $17.65 per share

- 2024-11: $22.83 per share

- 2024-12: $18.22 per share

- 2025-01: $18.28 per share

- 2025-02: $18.95 per share

- 2025-03: $18.56 per share

- 2025-04: $16.41 per share

- 2025-05: $15.49 per share

- 2025-06: $18.02 per share

- 2025-07: $21.18 per share

- 2025-08: $22.33 per share

- 2025-09: $29.36 per share

- 2025-10: $29.62 per share

- 2025-11: $29.97 per share

- 2025-12: $39.18 per share

- 2026-01: $45.33 per share

- 2026-02: $51.56 per share

- 2026-03: $58.69 per share

- 2026-04: $59.44 per share

- 2026-05: $65.97 per share

- 2026-06: $46.01 per share

- 2026-07: $44.77 per share

- 2026-08: $45.77 per share

- 2026-09: $35.98 per share

- 2026-10: $34.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.