# CF Industries Holdings (CF.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CF

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:21.942Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $119.77 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $158.73 per share, central $178.90 per share, high $205.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value $178.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:21.942Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.0% at the stated quote. About 14.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.48×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.15×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.33×

- FY2022: 0.50×

- FY2023: 0.36×

- FY2024: 0.29×

- FY2025: 0.33×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 26.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -8.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 16.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.6%

- FY2017: 5.1%

- FY2018: 11.7%

- FY2019: 17.6%

- FY2020: 14.3%

- FY2021: 54.5%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: 43.6%

- FY2024: 35.5%

- FY2025: 44.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.15×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $9.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $8.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.28×

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.24×

- FY2024: 1.28×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.6% vs 43.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.53 to 7.87 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.5%

- Market cap gain: $4.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 22.7%

- Per-share value change: $6.34

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.53

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.87

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.62

- Average buyback yield: 5.9%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $966M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 43.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.19

- FY2017: $1.53

- FY2018: $1.24

- FY2019: $2.22

- FY2020: $1.47

- FY2021: $4.24

- FY2022: $16.39

- FY2023: $7.87

- FY2024: $6.74

- FY2025: $8.97

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.89×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.61×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.9%

- FY2017: -9.5%

- FY2018: -9.5%

- FY2019: -8.3%

- FY2020: -7.6%

- FY2021: -15.8%

- FY2022: -3.8%

- FY2023: -8.6%

- FY2024: -7.8%

- FY2025: -9.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.6% a year for ten years · sales +19.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:29.531Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-06: CF Industries misses quarterly profit estimates on higher costs; shares fall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cf-industries-misses-quarterly-profit-215915947.html))

- 2026-01-26: CF Industries Gains on Healthy Nitrogen Demand and Higher Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cf-industries-gains-healthy-nitrogen-150000387.html))

- 2026-02-19: CF's Q4 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cfs-q4-earnings-sales-beat-140600023.html))

- 2026-03-15: CF Industries Holdings (CF) Is Up 11.9% After Fertilizer Tightness Highlights Low-Cost Gas Advantage ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cf-industries-holdings-cf-11-110839665.html))

- 2026-05-16: CF Industries (CF) Is Up 8.9% After Strong Q1 Earnings Amid Ammonia Outage Constraints ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cf-industries-cf-8-9-190649542.html))

- 2026-08-06: CF Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Strong Nitrogen Pricing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cf-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-140500030.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +19.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $3.7B 

- FY2017: $4.1B 

- FY2018: $4.4B 

- FY2019: $4.6B 

- FY2020: $4.1B 

- FY2021: $6.5B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $6.6B 

- FY2024: $5.9B 

- FY2025: $7.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 38.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 19.3% 

- FY2017: 12.6% 

- FY2018: 20.5% 

- FY2019: 25.8% 

- FY2020: 20.2% 

- FY2021: 36.1% 

- FY2022: 52.7% 

- FY2023: 39.9% 

- FY2024: 34.6% 

- FY2025: 38.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in agricultural inputs; annual sales are USD 7.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 7084000000; grossProfit 2724000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CF.US: CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products. It serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 34.6% to 39.9% during 2023–25; it earns 26.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0757938768244927],[2017,0.051450562462995855],[2018,0.1173843730413346],[2019,0.1763130989308056],[2020,0.1433347563114716],[2021,0.5450738927718647],[2022,1.1202816263254887],[2023,0.4356179310500233],[2024,0.3548092044164689],[2025,0.4406456312842678]]; median 0.26556115167363725. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 3.6% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 473000000; owner earnings 663493333.3333333. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 422000000; owner earnings 594906542.0560749. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 404000000; owner earnings 843289473.6842105. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 309000000; owner earnings 738932870.3703704. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 524000000; owner earnings 1175361111.1111112. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 462000000; owner earnings 3675755651.511303. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 501000000; owner earnings 1893000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 518000000; owner earnings 1553630331.7535543. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 52000000; upkeep 898000000; owner earnings 1455000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03573883161512027.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,280000000],[2017,280000000],[2018,280000000],[2019,265000000],[2020,258000000],[2021,260000000],[2022,306000000],[2023,311000000],[2024,364000000],[2025,326000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 1379000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CF.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.45199999999999996 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We are reliant on a limited number of key facilities." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); We are reliant on a limited number of key facilities.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07771412139959227. Price 119.77; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -5.570944515036001 → FY2025 8.970406905055487. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $24.01 per share

- 2016-11: $28.94 per share

- 2016-12: $31.48 per share

- 2017-01: $35.29 per share

- 2017-02: $31.42 per share

- 2017-03: $29.35 per share

- 2017-04: $26.74 per share

- 2017-05: $26.90 per share

- 2017-06: $27.96 per share

- 2017-07: $29.35 per share

- 2017-08: $28.99 per share

- 2017-09: $35.16 per share

- 2017-10: $37.98 per share

- 2017-11: $37.47 per share

- 2017-12: $42.54 per share

- 2018-01: $42.44 per share

- 2018-02: $41.24 per share

- 2018-03: $37.73 per share

- 2018-04: $38.80 per share

- 2018-05: $41.14 per share

- 2018-06: $44.40 per share

- 2018-07: $44.42 per share

- 2018-08: $51.95 per share

- 2018-09: $54.44 per share

- 2018-10: $48.03 per share

- 2018-11: $42.19 per share

- 2018-12: $43.51 per share

- 2019-01: $43.65 per share

- 2019-02: $42.20 per share

- 2019-03: $40.88 per share

- 2019-04: $44.78 per share

- 2019-05: $40.24 per share

- 2019-06: $46.71 per share

- 2019-07: $49.56 per share

- 2019-08: $48.19 per share

- 2019-09: $49.20 per share

- 2019-10: $45.35 per share

- 2019-11: $46.21 per share

- 2019-12: $47.74 per share

- 2020-01: $40.28 per share

- 2020-02: $36.86 per share

- 2020-03: $27.20 per share

- 2020-04: $27.50 per share

- 2020-05: $29.37 per share

- 2020-06: $28.14 per share

- 2020-07: $31.33 per share

- 2020-08: $32.63 per share

- 2020-09: $30.71 per share

- 2020-10: $27.61 per share

- 2020-11: $37.30 per share

- 2020-12: $38.71 per share

- 2021-01: $41.38 per share

- 2021-02: $45.28 per share

- 2021-03: $45.38 per share

- 2021-04: $48.63 per share

- 2021-05: $53.17 per share

- 2021-06: $51.45 per share

- 2021-07: $47.25 per share

- 2021-08: $45.42 per share

- 2021-09: $55.82 per share

- 2021-10: $56.80 per share

- 2021-11: $60.59 per share

- 2021-12: $70.78 per share

- 2022-01: $68.87 per share

- 2022-02: $81.19 per share

- 2022-03: $103.06 per share

- 2022-04: $96.83 per share

- 2022-05: $98.77 per share

- 2022-06: $85.73 per share

- 2022-07: $95.49 per share

- 2022-08: $103.46 per share

- 2022-09: $96.25 per share

- 2022-10: $106.26 per share

- 2022-11: $108.19 per share

- 2022-12: $85.20 per share

- 2023-01: $84.70 per share

- 2023-02: $85.89 per share

- 2023-03: $72.49 per share

- 2023-04: $71.58 per share

- 2023-05: $61.51 per share

- 2023-06: $69.42 per share

- 2023-07: $82.08 per share

- 2023-08: $77.07 per share

- 2023-09: $85.74 per share

- 2023-10: $79.78 per share

- 2023-11: $75.15 per share

- 2023-12: $79.50 per share

- 2024-01: $75.51 per share

- 2024-02: $80.72 per share

- 2024-03: $83.21 per share

- 2024-04: $78.97 per share

- 2024-05: $79.73 per share

- 2024-06: $74.12 per share

- 2024-07: $76.39 per share

- 2024-08: $83.09 per share

- 2024-09: $85.80 per share

- 2024-10: $82.23 per share

- 2024-11: $89.66 per share

- 2024-12: $85.32 per share

- 2025-01: $92.21 per share

- 2025-02: $81.02 per share

- 2025-03: $78.15 per share

- 2025-04: $78.37 per share

- 2025-05: $90.71 per share

- 2025-06: $92.00 per share

- 2025-07: $92.83 per share

- 2025-08: $86.63 per share

- 2025-09: $89.70 per share

- 2025-10: $83.29 per share

- 2025-11: $78.70 per share

- 2025-12: $77.34 per share

- 2026-01: $93.23 per share

- 2026-02: $99.54 per share

- 2026-03: $129.84 per share

- 2026-04: $124.20 per share

- 2026-05: $112.35 per share

- 2026-06: $108.26 per share

- 2026-07: $125.19 per share

- 2026-08: $130.03 per share

- 2026-09: $115.20 per share

- 2026-10: $119.77 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $33.31 per share, central $40.68 per share, high $47.33 per share

- FY2020: low $35.70 per share, central $40.34 per share, high $46.51 per share

- FY2021: low $64.27 per share, central $72.43 per share, high $83.30 per share

- FY2022: low $142.62 per share, central $199.99 per share, high $233.40 per share

- FY2023: low $80.62 per share, central $97.54 per share, high $112.63 per share

- FY2024: low $100.80 per share, central $113.76 per share, high $131.01 per share

- FY2025: low $134.12 per share, central $151.35 per share, high $174.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.