# Carlyle Group (CG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:22.941Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $36.81 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $27.30 per share, central $30.41 per share, high $34.55 per share. Buy at or below the central value $30.41 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:22.941Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.6% at the stated quote. About 8.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.84×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.28×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.37×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.46×

- FY2022: 0.35×

- FY2023: -0.20×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.27×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 66.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 62.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.7%

- FY2017: 12.5%

- FY2018: 3.1%

- FY2019: 13.1%

- FY2020: 4.0%

- FY2021: 27.3%

- FY2022: 9.7%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: 8.5%

- FY2025: 6.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -4.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -57.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.58×

- FY2023: 0.81×

- FY2024: 1.10×

- FY2025: 1.10×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.1% vs 6.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.02 to 2.18 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Market cap gain: $16B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 78.9%

- Per-share value change: $2.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.02

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.18

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.22

- Average buyback yield: 2.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $923M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.02

- FY2017: $0.76

- FY2018: $0.36

- FY2019: $3.11

- FY2020: $0.97

- FY2021: $8.20

- FY2022: $3.35

- FY2023: -$1.68

- FY2024: $2.77

- FY2025: $2.18

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -2.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 25.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.81×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.1%

- FY2017: 2.0%

- FY2018: 3.1%

- FY2019: 0.2%

- FY2020: 3.3%

- FY2021: 5.6%

- FY2022: 7.5%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: 7.7%

- FY2025: -2.2%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 43% since Aug 2025 · "Carlyle Earnings Drop 28% As Carry Fails To Follow Record Exits" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales -11.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:29.732Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-06: Carlyle's second-quarter profit jumps on fee growth as AUM climbs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carlyles-second-quarter-profit-jumps-101103793.html))

- 2025-10-31: Carlyle Misses Earnings Estimates as Private-Equity Sales Slump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ff7a7cf0-d78e-3767-86d7-51e2fa8f5560/carlyle-misses-earnings.html))

- 2026-03-14: Carlyle Group (CG) Is Down 6.7% After Curbing Redemptions Amid Private Credit Strain Concerns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carlyle-group-cg-down-6-170938513.html))

- 2026-05-07: Carlyle Earnings Drop 28% As Carry Fails To Follow Record Exits ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carlyle-earnings-drop-28-carry-181604512.html))

- 2026-08-06: Carlyle Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher AUM, Expenses Rise Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carlyle-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-153900509.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -11.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/cg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $2.3B 

- FY2017: $3.7B 

- FY2018: $2.4B 

- FY2019: $3.4B 

- FY2020: $2.9B 

- FY2021: $8.8B 

- FY2022: $4.4B 

- FY2023: $3.0B 

- FY2024: $5.4B 

- FY2025: $4.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 67.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/cg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 67.6% 

- FY2017: 66.0% 

- FY2018: 74.5% 

- FY2019: 80.0% 

- FY2020: 64.0% 

- FY2021: 63.0% 

- FY2022: 75.6% 

- FY2023: 44.7% 

- FY2024: 62.7% 

- FY2025: 67.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 4.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/cg-20251231.htm#000152716626000009 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 4779800000; grossProfit 3229100000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CG.US: The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES, recapitalization. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies, supply chains, aftermarket

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 44.7% to 67.6% during 2023–25; it earns 7.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 44.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 62.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/cg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 67.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.007223462453695754],[2017,0.12487241727174686],[2018,0.03125237552261498],[2019,0.1314699907868885],[2020,0.03994323636211861],[2021,0.2731660058486876],[2022,0.09712561993468005],[2023,-0.037805394729506954],[2024,0.08456041912083824],[2025,0.06396593276435263]]; median 0.07426317594259543. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 686.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 25400000; owner earnings 53000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 34000000; owner earnings 251400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 31300000; owner earnings 132100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 27800000; owner earnings 418700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 61200000; owner earnings 339100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 41400000; owner earnings 2985300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 659000000; owner earnings 713400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 77700000; owner earnings 1119905599.853359. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/cg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 99400000; owner earnings 888054811.0511273. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,140900000],[2017,124100000],[2018,153400000],[2019,172600000],[2020,351300000],[2021,355800000],[2022,443600000],[2023,497700000],[2024,503000000],[2025,505100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/cg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 686500000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 26.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 26.417 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03972870893664847. Price 36.81; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8104053719974557 → FY2025 2.3942335076404624. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $15.50 per share

- 2016-11: $15.55 per share

- 2016-12: $15.25 per share

- 2017-01: $17.30 per share

- 2017-02: $16.05 per share

- 2017-03: $15.95 per share

- 2017-04: $17.70 per share

- 2017-05: $17.65 per share

- 2017-06: $19.75 per share

- 2017-07: $20.50 per share

- 2017-08: $20.75 per share

- 2017-09: $23.60 per share

- 2017-10: $22.05 per share

- 2017-11: $20.10 per share

- 2017-12: $22.90 per share

- 2018-01: $25.20 per share

- 2018-02: $22.85 per share

- 2018-03: $21.35 per share

- 2018-04: $20.50 per share

- 2018-05: $21.90 per share

- 2018-06: $21.30 per share

- 2018-07: $24.35 per share

- 2018-08: $23.20 per share

- 2018-09: $22.55 per share

- 2018-10: $20.27 per share

- 2018-11: $18.31 per share

- 2018-12: $15.75 per share

- 2019-01: $18.89 per share

- 2019-02: $17.71 per share

- 2019-03: $18.28 per share

- 2019-04: $20.95 per share

- 2019-05: $19.70 per share

- 2019-06: $22.61 per share

- 2019-07: $23.85 per share

- 2019-08: $22.78 per share

- 2019-09: $25.56 per share

- 2019-10: $27.28 per share

- 2019-11: $29.80 per share

- 2019-12: $32.08 per share

- 2020-01: $32.48 per share

- 2020-02: $28.46 per share

- 2020-03: $21.65 per share

- 2020-04: $23.44 per share

- 2020-05: $27.66 per share

- 2020-06: $27.90 per share

- 2020-07: $28.47 per share

- 2020-08: $25.81 per share

- 2020-09: $24.67 per share

- 2020-10: $24.92 per share

- 2020-11: $28.41 per share

- 2020-12: $31.44 per share

- 2021-01: $32.27 per share

- 2021-02: $34.25 per share

- 2021-03: $36.76 per share

- 2021-04: $42.66 per share

- 2021-05: $43.64 per share

- 2021-06: $46.48 per share

- 2021-07: $50.47 per share

- 2021-08: $49.38 per share

- 2021-09: $47.28 per share

- 2021-10: $56.15 per share

- 2021-11: $54.69 per share

- 2021-12: $54.90 per share

- 2022-01: $51.05 per share

- 2022-02: $46.87 per share

- 2022-03: $48.91 per share

- 2022-04: $36.29 per share

- 2022-05: $38.53 per share

- 2022-06: $31.66 per share

- 2022-07: $38.91 per share

- 2022-08: $32.53 per share

- 2022-09: $25.84 per share

- 2022-10: $28.28 per share

- 2022-11: $31.17 per share

- 2022-12: $29.84 per share

- 2023-01: $35.97 per share

- 2023-02: $34.40 per share

- 2023-03: $31.06 per share

- 2023-04: $30.33 per share

- 2023-05: $27.41 per share

- 2023-06: $31.95 per share

- 2023-07: $35.65 per share

- 2023-08: $32.35 per share

- 2023-09: $30.16 per share

- 2023-10: $27.54 per share

- 2023-11: $34.28 per share

- 2023-12: $40.69 per share

- 2024-01: $40.02 per share

- 2024-02: $45.85 per share

- 2024-03: $46.91 per share

- 2024-04: $44.80 per share

- 2024-05: $42.96 per share

- 2024-06: $40.15 per share

- 2024-07: $49.74 per share

- 2024-08: $40.13 per share

- 2024-09: $43.06 per share

- 2024-10: $50.03 per share

- 2024-11: $53.23 per share

- 2024-12: $50.49 per share

- 2025-01: $56.16 per share

- 2025-02: $49.84 per share

- 2025-03: $43.59 per share

- 2025-04: $38.64 per share

- 2025-05: $45.20 per share

- 2025-06: $51.40 per share

- 2025-07: $60.66 per share

- 2025-08: $64.56 per share

- 2025-09: $62.70 per share

- 2025-10: $53.32 per share

- 2025-11: $54.53 per share

- 2025-12: $59.11 per share

- 2026-01: $58.78 per share

- 2026-02: $51.99 per share

- 2026-03: $48.39 per share

- 2026-04: $50.07 per share

- 2026-05: $45.43 per share

- 2026-06: $42.11 per share

- 2026-07: $46.02 per share

- 2026-08: $48.39 per share

- 2026-09: $39.66 per share

- 2026-10: $36.81 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $8.82 per share, central $9.41 per share, high $10.21 per share

- FY2017: low $7.96 per share, central $9.06 per share, high $10.52 per share

- FY2018: low $7.80 per share, central $8.52 per share, high $9.48 per share

- FY2019: low $29.94 per share, central $36.39 per share, high $41.36 per share

- FY2020: low $9.13 per share, central $9.97 per share, high $11.09 per share

- FY2021: low $42.73 per share, central $55.28 per share, high $63.61 per share

- FY2022: low $20.50 per share, central $22.77 per share, high $25.78 per share

- FY2023: low $15.40 per share, central $16.94 per share, high $18.98 per share

- FY2024: low $30.95 per share, central $34.52 per share, high $39.28 per share

- FY2025: low $33.35 per share, central $36.95 per share, high $41.76 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/cg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.