# Centerra Gold (CGAU.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CGAU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:23.060Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $21.97 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.01×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.22×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: -0.06×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.37×

- FY2022: -0.04×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.23×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 32.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 20.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.6%

- FY2017: 11.1%

- FY2018: 4.5%

- FY2019: -3.2%

- FY2020: 1.5%

- FY2021: 30.0%

- FY2022: -2.3%

- FY2023: 2.6%

- FY2024: 14.7%

- FY2025: 16.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $236M

- Net income, five-year total: $124M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 51.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -4.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -32.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.91×

- FY2022: 0.71×

- FY2023: 0.31×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.6% vs 14.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.52 to 0.38 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -7.2%

- Market cap gain: $1.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $492M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -7.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.7%

- Per-share value change: -$0.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.38

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.20

- Average buyback yield: 4.0%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $32M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $908M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.52

- FY2017: $0.72

- FY2018: $0.37

- FY2019: -$0.32

- FY2020: $1.38

- FY2021: -$1.29

- FY2022: -$0.29

- FY2023: -$0.37

- FY2024: $0.38

- FY2025: $2.86

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: 7.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.60×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.60×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.3%

- FY2017: -10.5%

- FY2018: -3.9%

- FY2019: -15.6%

- FY2020: -16.6%

- FY2021: -31.0%

- FY2022: -3.3%

- FY2023: -14.2%

- FY2024: -9.6%

- FY2025: 7.9%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 332% since Oct 2023 · "Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Extends Mount Milligan Mine Life By 10 Years Through 2045" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2025) · sales +14%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:29.767Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-09-12: Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Extends Mount Milligan Mine Life By 10 Years Through 2045 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/centerra-gold-tsx-cg-extends-180534117.html))

- 2025-10-29: Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Margins Surge on $288M One-Off Gain, Challenging Sustainability Narratives ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/centerra-gold-tsx-cg-margins-221916213.html))

- 2026-07-28: Centerra Gold Reports Higher Q2 Profit, Raises Oksut Gold Production Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/centerra-gold-reports-higher-q2-212608549.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +14%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1854640/000110465926033394/tm261243d1_40f.htm; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2016: $761M 

- FY2017: $1.2B 

- FY2018: $1.1B 

- FY2019: $1.4B 

- FY2020: $721M 

- FY2021: $900M 

- FY2022: $850M 

- FY2023: $1.1B 

- FY2024: $1.2B 

- FY2025: $1.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 33.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1854640/000110465926033394/tm261243d1_40f.htm; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2016: 45.5% 

- FY2017: 42.6% 

- FY2018: 31.6% 

- FY2019: 32.7% 

- FY2020: 29.9% 

- FY2021: 32.4% 

- FY2022: 21.0% 

- FY2023: 24.1% 

- FY2024: 31.1% 

- FY2025: 33.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are USD 1.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1854640/000110465926033394/tm261243d1_40f.htm (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: revenue 1384562000; grossProfit 463793000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.1% to 33.5% during 2023–25; it earns 6.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 24.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1854640/000110465926033394/tm261243d1_40f.htm (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07569836679389255],[2017,0.11061672114089885],[2018,0.0454532464826775],[2019,-0.031998059338123705],[2020,0.015348674859400314],[2021,0.3000394859026055],[2022,-0.022515837372761277],[2023,0.025935775563448525],[2024,0.1465226732200046],[2025,0.16250865840849724]]; median 0.060575806638285025. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 24.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 51.2% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2016: growth capex 8270106; upkeep 204561894; owner earnings 151538000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05457446976995869.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2017: growth capex 57812162; upkeep 209041838; owner earnings 209533000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2759095798752464.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 285873000; owner earnings 53783040. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 326240000; owner earnings 184344000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: growth capex 53629000; upkeep 130662000; owner earnings 80394000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6670771450605767.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1854640/000110465926033394/tm261243d1_40f.htm (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: growth capex 142415616; upkeep 115636000; owner earnings 583988000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24386736713768092.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Incremental return on capital 0.5117405077984587, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,22946000],[2017,39757000],[2018,39757000],[2019,39757000],[2020,39757000],[2021,45044000],[2022,47667000],[2023,44907000],[2024,43510000],[2025,41835757]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1854640/000110465926033394/tm261243d1_40f.htm (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 95329075 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CGAU.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.157 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 3.2 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Closing price 21.97 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 6.785844514322906; price multiple 3.2376220754289085. FY2025 cash earnings/share 2.8621699614971416. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $5.06 per share

- 2016-11: $5.12 per share

- 2016-12: $4.65 per share

- 2017-01: $4.93 per share

- 2017-02: $4.85 per share

- 2017-03: $5.81 per share

- 2017-04: $5.17 per share

- 2017-05: $5.72 per share

- 2017-06: $5.46 per share

- 2017-07: $5.33 per share

- 2017-08: $6.00 per share

- 2017-09: $7.10 per share

- 2017-10: $6.81 per share

- 2017-11: $5.63 per share

- 2017-12: $5.11 per share

- 2018-01: $5.15 per share

- 2018-02: $5.24 per share

- 2018-03: $5.73 per share

- 2018-04: $6.10 per share

- 2018-05: $5.23 per share

- 2018-06: $5.57 per share

- 2018-07: $4.58 per share

- 2018-08: $4.27 per share

- 2018-09: $4.00 per share

- 2018-10: $3.88 per share

- 2018-11: $4.06 per share

- 2018-12: $4.23 per share

- 2019-01: $5.05 per share

- 2019-02: $5.19 per share

- 2019-03: $5.24 per share

- 2019-04: $5.08 per share

- 2019-05: $5.74 per share

- 2019-06: $7.05 per share

- 2019-07: $7.97 per share

- 2019-08: $9.11 per share

- 2019-09: $8.50 per share

- 2019-10: $8.55 per share

- 2019-11: $8.52 per share

- 2019-12: $7.94 per share

- 2020-01: $7.99 per share

- 2020-02: $6.34 per share

- 2020-03: $5.94 per share

- 2020-04: $8.11 per share

- 2020-05: $10.13 per share

- 2020-06: $11.15 per share

- 2020-07: $12.52 per share

- 2020-08: $13.06 per share

- 2020-09: $11.61 per share

- 2020-10: $8.73 per share

- 2020-11: $9.81 per share

- 2020-12: $11.59 per share

- 2021-01: $10.34 per share

- 2021-02: $9.73 per share

- 2021-03: $8.88 per share

- 2021-04: $9.19 per share

- 2021-05: $8.10 per share

- 2021-06: $7.63 per share

- 2021-07: $8.04 per share

- 2021-08: $7.46 per share

- 2021-09: $6.81 per share

- 2021-10: $7.50 per share

- 2021-11: $7.38 per share

- 2021-12: $7.68 per share

- 2022-01: $8.06 per share

- 2022-02: $9.74 per share

- 2022-03: $9.84 per share

- 2022-04: $9.25 per share

- 2022-05: $7.76 per share

- 2022-06: $6.75 per share

- 2022-07: $6.24 per share

- 2022-08: $4.54 per share

- 2022-09: $4.41 per share

- 2022-10: $4.67 per share

- 2022-11: $5.32 per share

- 2022-12: $5.18 per share

- 2023-01: $6.43 per share

- 2023-02: $6.33 per share

- 2023-03: $6.47 per share

- 2023-04: $6.75 per share

- 2023-05: $6.03 per share

- 2023-06: $6.00 per share

- 2023-07: $6.37 per share

- 2023-08: $5.98 per share

- 2023-09: $4.90 per share

- 2023-10: $5.08 per share

- 2023-11: $6.13 per share

- 2023-12: $5.96 per share

- 2024-01: $5.26 per share

- 2024-02: $5.02 per share

- 2024-03: $5.91 per share

- 2024-04: $6.07 per share

- 2024-05: $6.89 per share

- 2024-06: $6.72 per share

- 2024-07: $6.71 per share

- 2024-08: $7.08 per share

- 2024-09: $7.16 per share

- 2024-10: $7.08 per share

- 2024-11: $6.03 per share

- 2024-12: $5.69 per share

- 2025-01: $6.24 per share

- 2025-02: $5.75 per share

- 2025-03: $6.35 per share

- 2025-04: $6.70 per share

- 2025-05: $7.13 per share

- 2025-06: $7.21 per share

- 2025-07: $6.80 per share

- 2025-08: $8.17 per share

- 2025-09: $10.73 per share

- 2025-10: $11.73 per share

- 2025-11: $13.28 per share

- 2025-12: $14.37 per share

- 2026-01: $16.76 per share

- 2026-02: $21.03 per share

- 2026-03: $17.79 per share

- 2026-04: $17.42 per share

- 2026-05: $17.67 per share

- 2026-06: $15.86 per share

- 2026-07: $17.19 per share

- 2026-08: $22.92 per share

- 2026-09: $21.78 per share

- 2026-10: $22.54 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $0.65 per share, central $0.67 per share, high $0.69 per share

- FY2017: low $10.70 per share, central $14.71 per share, high $17.05 per share

- FY2018: low $2.45 per share, central $2.72 per share, high $3.09 per share

- FY2019: low $2.48 per share, central $2.82 per share, high $3.26 per share

- FY2020: low $6.45 per share, central $7.10 per share, high $7.95 per share

- FY2021: low $4.72 per share, central $4.93 per share, high $5.22 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1854640/000110465926033394/tm261243d1_40f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.