# Challenger (CGF.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CGF.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:50.355Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 9.65 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 4.81 per share, central AUD 5.29 per share, high AUD 5.88 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 5.29 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:50.355Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.5% at the stated quote. About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 9

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 1.10×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 398M

- FY2018: AUD 323M

- FY2019: AUD 308M

- FY2020: AUD -416M

- FY2021: AUD 592M

- FY2022: AUD 254M

- FY2023: AUD 288M

- FY2024: AUD 130M

- FY2025: AUD 192M

- FY2026: AUD 506M

### moat: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 7.7%

- Required median return: 10.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: No

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 3.3%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 13.8%

- FY2018: 9.3%

- FY2019: 8.5%

- FY2020: -12.8%

- FY2021: 15.5%

- FY2022: 6.4%

- FY2023: 6.9%

- FY2024: 3.3%

- FY2025: 5.0%

- FY2026: 12.4%

### economics: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 6.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: AUD 4.40

- Ending book value per share: AUD 4.98

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 39.3%

- FY2019: -11.9%

- FY2020: -16.1%

- FY2021: 18.6%

- FY2022: 11.1%

- FY2023: 20.8%

- FY2024: 1.2%

- FY2025: 9.0%

- FY2026: -5.6%

### management: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book per share gain below retained common earnings per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 3.0%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.5%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 0.78×

- Book value created per share: AUD 0.58

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: AUD 0.73

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 100

- FY2017: 110

- FY2018: 100

- FY2019: 125

- FY2020: 143

- FY2021: 145

- FY2022: 140

- FY2023: 125

- FY2024: 119

- FY2025: 114

- FY2026: 134

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 4.5% a year forever · net income +162.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.504Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 4.5% a year forever

### Net income · FY2026

net income +162.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 398M 

- FY2018: AUD 323M 

- FY2019: AUD 308M 

- FY2020: AUD -416M 

- FY2021: AUD 592M 

- FY2022: AUD 254M 

- FY2023: AUD 288M 

- FY2024: AUD 130M 

- FY2025: AUD 192M 

- FY2026: AUD 506M 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance life; annual sales are AUD 2.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:50.355Z); FY2026: revenue 2210500000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CGF.AU: Challenger Limited is a publicly owned investment manager. The company also provides retirement services to its clients. It manages equity mutual funds. The firm invests into the public equity markets across the world. Challenger Limited was founded in 1985 and is based in Australia, Asia and United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

It earns 7.7% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:50.355Z); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2017,0.13766836328381982],[2018,0.09252883456705113],[2019,0.08549287559370053],[2020,-0.12801575578532742],[2021,0.15481729311516546],[2022,0.06361106235739539],[2023,0.06910393233081048],[2024,0.03346730561137734],[2025,0.049760641738905424],[2026,0.12439414442120802]]; median 0.07729840396225551. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back AUD 118.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:50.355Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,181600000],[2018,205600000],[2019,215800000],[2020,216400000],[2021,64000000],[2022,133700000],[2023,122500000],[2024,149400000],[2025,191300000],[2026,210400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:50.355Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 118900000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CGF.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.5810000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 4.5% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:50.355Z); Price 9.65; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 0.529237732237913; discount 0.1; growth 0.045156711685190365. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 10.76 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 10.65 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 11.24 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 11.02 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 11.44 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 12.55 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 13.22 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 12.79 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 13.34 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 12.85 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 12.54 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 12.45 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 13.30 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 13.99 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 14.03 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 13.64 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 12.60 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 11.54 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 10.80 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 12.89 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 11.83 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 12.44 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 10.83 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 11.20 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 10.26 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 9.52 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 9.49 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 7.24 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 8.05 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 8.28 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 8.22 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 8.07 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 6.64 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 7.09 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 6.71 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 7.37 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 7.96 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 8.14 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 8.09 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 8.95 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 9.09 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 4.00 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 4.96 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 5.01 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 4.41 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 4.34 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 4.08 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 3.83 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 4.81 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 5.75 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 6.44 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 6.66 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 6.45 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 6.40 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 5.11 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 5.22 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 5.41 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 5.69 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 6.45 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 6.28 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 6.94 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 6.46 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 6.53 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 5.72 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 6.75 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 6.75 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 7.29 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 7.23 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 6.84 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 6.98 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 6.40 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 5.85 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 7.02 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 7.29 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 7.62 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 7.22 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 7.49 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 6.24 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 6.03 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 6.20 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 6.48 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 7.17 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 6.81 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 6.42 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 5.85 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 5.94 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 6.49 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 6.55 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 6.73 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 7.11 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 6.75 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 6.48 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 7.01 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 7.04 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 6.88 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 6.50 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 6.05 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 6.22 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 6.01 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 6.32 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 5.82 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 6.03 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 7.09 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 7.61 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 8.08 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 8.23 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 8.34 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 8.66 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 9.31 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 8.88 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 9.41 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 9.21 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 8.93 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 8.28 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 8.54 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 8.86 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 10.00 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 9.81 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 9.45 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 10.16 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 9.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 7.21 per share, central AUD 9.02 per share, high AUD 12.02 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 9.89 per share, central AUD 12.37 per share, high AUD 16.49 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 8.31 per share, central AUD 10.38 per share, high AUD 13.84 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 3.31 per share, central AUD 3.64 per share, high AUD 4.04 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 5.62 per share, central AUD 7.02 per share, high AUD 9.37 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 4.60 per share, central AUD 5.06 per share, high AUD 5.62 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 5.58 per share, central AUD 6.98 per share, high AUD 9.30 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 4.40 per share, central AUD 4.84 per share, high AUD 5.38 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 3.91 per share, central AUD 4.62 per share, high AUD 5.66 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 3.98 per share, central AUD 4.38 per share, high AUD 4.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Challenger

CGF · AU

S&P/ASX 200

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: AUD 9.65
Buy up to: AUD 5.29
Expected / yr: 5.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Profits were positive in 9 years (at least 8 needed).

Net income

10y median: AUD 298M
Worst year: AUD -416M
Latest · 2026: AUD 506M

Earned a median 7.7% on equity (minimum 10%).

Return on common equity

10y median: 7.7%
Worst year: -12.8%
Latest · 2026: 12.4%

Book value plus dividends grew 6% a year (minimum 7%).

Annual book + dividend return

10y median: 6.8%
Worst year: -16.1%
Latest · 2026: -5.6%

Book value gained 0.58 per share against 0.73 kept (must cover the amount kept).

Shares (first year = 100)

11y median: 125
Worst year: 145
Latest · 2026: 134

0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).

accounting warnings: 0
Passing bar: ≤ 0

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 0.36 AUD.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price AUD 10.76; 2016-11 · Price AUD 10.65; 2016-12 · Price AUD 11.24; 2017-01 · Price AUD 11.02 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-02 · Price AUD 11.44 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-03 · Price AUD 12.55 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-04 · Price AUD 13.22 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-05 · Price AUD 12.79 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-06 · Price AUD 13.34 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-07 · Price AUD 12.85 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-08 · Price AUD 12.54 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-09 · Price AUD 12.45 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-10 · Price AUD 13.30 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-11 · Price AUD 13.99 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2017-12 · Price AUD 14.03 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2018-01 · Price AUD 13.64 · Value 9.02 · Buy at or below 9.02; 2018-02 · Price AUD 12.60 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-03 · Price AUD 11.54 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-04 · Price AUD 10.80 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-05 · Price AUD 12.89 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-06 · Price AUD 11.83 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-07 · Price AUD 12.44 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-08 · Price AUD 10.83 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-09 · Price AUD 11.20 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-10 · Price AUD 10.26 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-11 · Price AUD 9.52 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2018-12 · Price AUD 9.49 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2019-01 · Price AUD 7.24 · Value 12.37 · Buy at or below 12.37; 2019-02 · Price AUD 8.05 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-03 · Price AUD 8.28 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-04 · Price AUD 8.22 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-05 · Price AUD 8.07 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-06 · Price AUD 6.64 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-07 · Price AUD 7.09 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-08 · Price AUD 6.71 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-09 · Price AUD 7.37 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-10 · Price AUD 7.96 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-11 · Price AUD 8.14 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2019-12 · Price AUD 8.09 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2020-01 · Price AUD 8.95 · Value 10.38 · Buy at or below 10.38; 2020-02 · Price AUD 9.09 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-03 · Price AUD 4.00 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-04 · Price AUD 4.96 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-05 · Price AUD 5.01 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-06 · Price AUD 4.41 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-07 · Price AUD 4.34 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-08 · Price AUD 4.08 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-09 · Price AUD 3.83 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-10 · Price AUD 4.81 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-11 · Price AUD 5.75 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2020-12 · Price AUD 6.44 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2021-01 · Price AUD 6.66 · Value 3.64 · Buy at or below 3.64; 2021-02 · Price AUD 6.45 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-03 · Price AUD 6.40 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-04 · Price AUD 5.11 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-05 · Price AUD 5.22 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-06 · Price AUD 5.41 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-07 · Price AUD 5.69 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-08 · Price AUD 6.45 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-09 · Price AUD 6.28 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-10 · Price AUD 6.94 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-11 · Price AUD 6.46 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2021-12 · Price AUD 6.53 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2022-01 · Price AUD 5.72 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2022-02 · Price AUD 6.75 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-03 · Price AUD 6.75 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-04 · Price AUD 7.29 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-05 · Price AUD 7.23 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-06 · Price AUD 6.84 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-07 · Price AUD 6.98 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-08 · Price AUD 6.40 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-09 · Price AUD 5.85 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-10 · Price AUD 7.02 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-11 · Price AUD 7.29 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2022-12 · Price AUD 7.62 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2023-01 · Price AUD 7.22 · Value 5.06 · Buy at or below 5.06; 2023-02 · Price AUD 7.49 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-03 · Price AUD 6.24 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-04 · Price AUD 6.03 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-05 · Price AUD 6.20 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-06 · Price AUD 6.48 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-07 · Price AUD 7.17 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-08 · Price AUD 6.81 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-09 · Price AUD 6.42 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-10 · Price AUD 5.85 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-11 · Price AUD 5.94 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2023-12 · Price AUD 6.49 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2024-01 · Price AUD 6.55 · Value 6.98 · Buy at or below 6.98; 2024-02 · Price AUD 6.73 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-03 · Price AUD 7.11 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-04 · Price AUD 6.75 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-05 · Price AUD 6.48 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-06 · Price AUD 7.01 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-07 · Price AUD 7.04 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-08 · Price AUD 6.88 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-09 · Price AUD 6.50 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-10 · Price AUD 6.05 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-11 · Price AUD 6.22 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2024-12 · Price AUD 6.01 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2025-01 · Price AUD 6.32 · Value 4.84 · Buy at or below 4.84; 2025-02 · Price AUD 5.82 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-03 · Price AUD 6.03 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-04 · Price AUD 7.09 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-05 · Price AUD 7.61 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-06 · Price AUD 8.08 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-07 · Price AUD 8.23 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-08 · Price AUD 8.34 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-09 · Price AUD 8.66 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-10 · Price AUD 9.31 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-11 · Price AUD 8.88 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2025-12 · Price AUD 9.41 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2026-01 · Price AUD 9.21 · Value 4.62 · Buy at or below 4.62; 2026-02 · Price AUD 8.93 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-03 · Price AUD 8.28 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-04 · Price AUD 8.54 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-05 · Price AUD 8.86 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-06 · Price AUD 10.00 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-07 · Price AUD 9.81 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-08 · Price AUD 9.45 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-09 · Price AUD 10.16 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-10 · Price AUD 9.80 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38; 2026-10 · Price AUD 9.65 · Value 4.38 · Buy at or below 4.38

AUD per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	AUD 4.81 – AUD 5.88
Buy at or below	Central value AUD 5.29
Discount to value	1 − 9.65 / 5.29 = -82.3%
Return / year	About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Book AUD 5.35/share; ROE 9.9%; first payout AUD 0.53/share, growing 0.0% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied).
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

Net incomeAUD 506M

Net income

Book / shareAUD 4.98

Book / share

Dividend / shareAUD 0.26

Dividend / share

Return on equity12.4%

Return on equity

Diluted shares816M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026