# Chord Energy (CHRD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CHRD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:24.919Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $148.33 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $264.34 per share, central $299.56 per share, high $346.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value $299.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:24.919Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.0% at the stated quote. About 18.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 4.45×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -0.05×

- FY2020: -4.50×

- FY2021: 0.51×

- FY2022: 0.43×

- FY2023: 0.33×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.19×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 18.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -1.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 18.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 6.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 23.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: -344.8%

- FY2021: 66.0%

- FY2022: 34.6%

- FY2023: 18.4%

- FY2024: 9.1%

- FY2025: 1.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 15.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 3.75×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -1.1% vs 9.1%

- Per-share earnings: -6.42 to 13.86 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 23.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 23.4%

- Per-share value change: $20.28

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$6.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $13.86

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.25

- Average buyback yield: 4.4%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: -1.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -$6.42

- FY2020: -$185.62

- FY2021: $15.21

- FY2022: $42.50

- FY2023: $23.77

- FY2024: $13.86

- FY2025: $0.78

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -14.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.93×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 45.90×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -13.6%

- FY2020: -184.7%

- FY2021: -19.6%

- FY2022: -1.0%

- FY2023: -11.5%

- FY2024: -9.6%

- FY2025: -14.9%

## Holders

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 10% since Oct 2023 · "Chord Energy Stock Dips 2.6% Since Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +29.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:30.173Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-20: Chord Energy Stock Dips 2.6% Since Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chord-energy-stock-dips-2-160700944.html))

- 2026-03-04: CHRD Q4 Earnings Top Estimates on Lower Expenses, Revenues Fall Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chrd-q4-earnings-top-estimates-143700392.html))

- 2026-07-10: Chord Energy's 4-Mile Laterals Seen Driving Higher Free Cash Flow, Buybacks, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/chord-energy-apos-4-mile-171340854.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +29.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1042134/000104213409000031/d10k.htm; observed 2009-11-19.

- FY2019: $1.9B 

- FY2020: $1.1B 

- FY2021: $1.6B 

- FY2022: $3.6B 

- FY2023: $3.9B 

- FY2024: $5.3B 

- FY2025: $4.9B 

- FY2026: $6.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 6.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1042134/000104213409000031/d10k.htm; observed 2009-11-19.

- FY2019: 4.2% 

- FY2020: 22.2% 

- FY2021: 42.4% 

- FY2022: 49.1% 

- FY2023: 36.9% 

- FY2024: 24.9% 

- FY2025: 6.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 4.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2025: revenue 4877126000; grossProfit 315008000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 6.5% to 36.9% during 2023–25; it earns 9.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 6.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,-0.011155483765898208],[2020,-3.4475822859061904],[2021,0.6597629253605309],[2022,0.3459733840246041],[2023,0.18387313105611866],[2024,0.09142544179536187],[2025,0.013730617982969562]]; median 0.09142544179536187. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 7 years; bought back USD 364.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2021: growth capex 57442000; upkeep 158304000; owner earnings 319602000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17972978892497543.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2022: growth capex 161668000; upkeep 369659000; owner earnings 1856159000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08709814191564408.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2023: growth capex 307111000; upkeep 598562000; owner earnings 1023779000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29997782724591926.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2024: growth capex 71299000; upkeep 1107776000; owner earnings 848627000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0840168884562947.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1347937000; owner earnings 166693000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); Dividend observations: [[2019,31905000],[2020,31905000],[2021,111905000],[2022,654728000],[2023,500304000],[2024,529910000],[2025,317763000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 364877000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CHRD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.5930000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2009-11-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.13004458204543495. Price 148.33; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $10.49 per share

- 2016-11: $14.97 per share

- 2016-12: $15.14 per share

- 2017-01: $14.14 per share

- 2017-02: $14.16 per share

- 2017-03: $14.26 per share

- 2017-04: $11.94 per share

- 2017-05: $9.76 per share

- 2017-06: $8.05 per share

- 2017-07: $7.78 per share

- 2017-08: $7.30 per share

- 2017-09: $9.12 per share

- 2017-10: $9.45 per share

- 2017-11: $10.23 per share

- 2017-12: $8.41 per share

- 2018-01: $8.66 per share

- 2018-02: $7.88 per share

- 2018-03: $8.10 per share

- 2018-04: $11.03 per share

- 2018-05: $13.03 per share

- 2018-06: $12.97 per share

- 2018-07: $12.22 per share

- 2018-08: $13.46 per share

- 2018-09: $14.18 per share

- 2018-10: $10.06 per share

- 2018-11: $7.14 per share

- 2018-12: $5.53 per share

- 2019-01: $6.02 per share

- 2019-02: $5.59 per share

- 2019-03: $6.04 per share

- 2019-04: $6.10 per share

- 2019-05: $5.20 per share

- 2019-06: $5.68 per share

- 2019-07: $4.87 per share

- 2019-08: $3.12 per share

- 2019-09: $3.46 per share

- 2019-10: $2.61 per share

- 2019-11: $2.34 per share

- 2019-12: $3.26 per share

- 2020-01: $2.25 per share

- 2020-02: $1.64 per share

- 2020-03: $0.35 per share

- 2020-04: $0.70 per share

- 2020-05: $0.46 per share

- 2020-06: $0.75 per share

- 2020-07: $0.64 per share

- 2020-08: $0.56 per share

- 2020-09: $0.28 per share

- 2020-10: $0.11 per share

- 2020-11: $34.20 per share

- 2020-12: $37.06 per share

- 2021-01: $37.47 per share

- 2021-02: $56.86 per share

- 2021-03: $59.39 per share

- 2021-04: $77.62 per share

- 2021-05: $88.61 per share

- 2021-06: $100.55 per share

- 2021-07: $91.71 per share

- 2021-08: $86.59 per share

- 2021-09: $99.42 per share

- 2021-10: $120.60 per share

- 2021-11: $119.90 per share

- 2021-12: $125.99 per share

- 2022-01: $135.43 per share

- 2022-02: $132.51 per share

- 2022-03: $146.30 per share

- 2022-04: $132.66 per share

- 2022-05: $158.73 per share

- 2022-06: $121.65 per share

- 2022-07: $128.24 per share

- 2022-08: $141.55 per share

- 2022-09: $136.77 per share

- 2022-10: $153.09 per share

- 2022-11: $152.53 per share

- 2022-12: $136.81 per share

- 2023-01: $143.33 per share

- 2023-02: $134.62 per share

- 2023-03: $134.60 per share

- 2023-04: $142.33 per share

- 2023-05: $143.04 per share

- 2023-06: $153.80 per share

- 2023-07: $156.84 per share

- 2023-08: $161.50 per share

- 2023-09: $162.07 per share

- 2023-10: $165.32 per share

- 2023-11: $162.14 per share

- 2023-12: $166.23 per share

- 2024-01: $153.76 per share

- 2024-02: $162.45 per share

- 2024-03: $178.24 per share

- 2024-04: $176.98 per share

- 2024-05: $185.41 per share

- 2024-06: $167.68 per share

- 2024-07: $171.66 per share

- 2024-08: $148.43 per share

- 2024-09: $130.23 per share

- 2024-10: $125.10 per share

- 2024-11: $127.52 per share

- 2024-12: $116.92 per share

- 2025-01: $112.45 per share

- 2025-02: $114.30 per share

- 2025-03: $112.72 per share

- 2025-04: $90.23 per share

- 2025-05: $90.00 per share

- 2025-06: $96.85 per share

- 2025-07: $110.33 per share

- 2025-08: $109.89 per share

- 2025-09: $99.37 per share

- 2025-10: $90.72 per share

- 2025-11: $93.86 per share

- 2025-12: $92.70 per share

- 2026-01: $100.24 per share

- 2026-02: $108.37 per share

- 2026-03: $142.18 per share

- 2026-04: $145.60 per share

- 2026-05: $131.87 per share

- 2026-06: $114.30 per share

- 2026-07: $140.38 per share

- 2026-08: $147.11 per share

- 2026-09: $134.07 per share

- 2026-10: $148.33 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $205.60 per share, central $233.18 per share, high $269.90 per share

- FY2024: low $189.65 per share, central $215.80 per share, high $250.61 per share

- FY2025: low $191.34 per share, central $217.50 per share, high $252.32 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:04.893Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1042134/000104213409000031/d10k.htm); period 2009-09-30, filed 2009-11-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.