# Ciena (CIEN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CIEN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:26.310Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $356.52 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $44.84 per share, central $50.23 per share, high $55.58 per share. Buy at or below the central value $50.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:26.310Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.7% at the stated quote. About 3.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.34×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 43.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 42.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 11.4%

- FY2018: 10.4%

- FY2019: 17.4%

- FY2020: 21.6%

- FY2021: 26.0%

- FY2022: 8.9%

- FY2023: 10.3%

- FY2024: 4.9%

- FY2025: 9.9%

- LTM to Jul 2026: >100%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.12×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 30.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 15.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 38.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.11×

- FY2022: 1.32×

- FY2023: 1.14×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.4% vs 9.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.48 to 0.85 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Market cap gain: $24B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.3%

- Per-share value change: $0.37

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.85

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.10

- Average buyback yield: 3.2%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $487M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.48

- FY2017: $7.43

- FY2018: -$2.40

- FY2019: $1.61

- FY2020: $2.32

- FY2021: $3.19

- FY2022: $1.00

- FY2023: $1.71

- FY2024: $0.58

- FY2025: $0.85

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -11.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.81×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 22.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 6.54×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.27×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.5%

- FY2017: 26.0%

- FY2018: -15.3%

- FY2019: -4.1%

- FY2020: -3.2%

- FY2021: -0.9%

- FY2022: 6.3%

- FY2023: 1.5%

- FY2024: -7.6%

- FY2025: -11.6%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 39% since May 2026 · "CIEN Falls 15.2% in a Week as AI Growth Faces Persistent Supply Risks" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +18.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:30.403Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 32.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-08: Why Ciena (CIEN) Is Up 24.2% After Surpassing Q3 Earnings and Upgrading Revenue Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-ciena-cien-24-2-141831650.html))

- 2025-12-11: Ciena shares jump as AI-driven demand fuels earnings beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ciena-shares-jump-ai-driven-124505931.html))

- 2026-03-05: Ciena falls on weak full-year guidance despite Q1 beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ciena-falls-weak-full-guidance-124014806.html))

- 2026-04-16: How Ciena’s AI-Fueled US$7 Billion Backlog Will Impact Ciena (CIEN) Investors ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ciena-ai-fueled-us-7-210607865.html))

- 2026-06-04: Ciena Stock Falls On Fiscal Q2 Earnings As Guidance Underwhelms ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7d22f973-6952-368b-9ebb-1b806ce9e8fb/ciena-stock-falls-on-fiscal.html))

- 2026-09-11: CIEN Falls 15.2% in a Week as AI Growth Faces Persistent Supply Risks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cien-falls-15-2-week-161300468.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +18.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936395/000162828025056698/cien-20251101.htm; observed 2025-12-12.

- FY2016: $2.6B 

- FY2017: $2.8B 

- FY2018: $3.1B 

- FY2019: $3.6B 

- FY2020: $3.5B 

- FY2021: $3.6B 

- FY2022: $3.6B 

- FY2023: $4.4B 

- FY2024: $4.0B 

- FY2025: $4.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 42%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936395/000162828025056698/cien-20251101.htm; observed 2025-12-12.

- FY2016: 44.7% 

- FY2017: 44.5% 

- FY2018: 42.5% 

- FY2019: 43.2% 

- FY2020: 46.8% 

- FY2021: 47.6% 

- FY2022: 43.0% 

- FY2023: 42.8% 

- FY2024: 42.8% 

- FY2025: 42.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in communication equipment; annual sales are USD 4.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936395/000162828025056698/cien-20251101.htm (filed 2025-12-12); FY2025: revenue 4769507000; grossProfit 2004917000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CIEN.US: Ciena Corporation, a network technology company, provides hardware, software, and services for various network operators in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India. It operates through Networking Platforms, Platform Software and Services, Blue Planet Automation Software and Services, and Global Services segments. The Networking Platforms segment consists optical networking, routing, and switching products and services. This segment products include the 6500 Packet-Optical Platform, Waveserver modular interconnect system, the 6500 Reconfigurable Line System, and coherent pluggable transceivers; and the 3000 family of service delivery platforms and the 5000 family of service aggregation, as well as the 8100 Coherent Routing platforms and virtualization software. The Platform Software and Services segment offers navigator network control suite; and software subscription services, consulting, network migration and integration, installation and upgrade support services, and technical support solutions. The Blue Planet Automation Software and Services segment inventory management, orchestration, route optimization and analysis, and unified assurance and analytics software; and sells subscription, installation, support, consulting, and design services related to the Blue Planet automation platform. The Global Services segment provides services for advisory and enablement, implementation, and maintenance, support, and learning activities. Ciena Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Fulton, Maryland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 42% to 42.8% during 2023–25; it earns 10.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 42.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 42.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936395/000162828025056698/cien-20251101.htm (filed 2025-12-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17775811018264093],[2017,0.11389764266114441],[2018,0.10449080404806448],[2019,0.17360946876502606],[2020,0.2158524227561211],[2021,0.2596167351841797],[2022,0.0889601515189503],[2023,0.10287690087435654],[2024,0.048662921032531614],[2025,0.09881025795457664]]; median 0.10919422335460444. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.4% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 3 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 107185000; owner earnings 107091000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 94600000; owner earnings 1290255000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 62579000; owner earnings 313567000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 82667000; owner earnings 411151000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 79550000; owner earnings 552912000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 90818000; owner earnings 202287000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 106197000; owner earnings 290810000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 136641000; owner earnings 80785000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936395/000162828025056698/cien-20251101.htm (filed 2025-12-12); FY2025: growth capex 463000; upkeep 140338000; owner earnings 123338000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0037539120141400054.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,305125000],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,6929000],[2022,0],[2023,498330000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936395/000162828025056698/cien-20251101.htm (filed 2025-12-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 334507000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CIEN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.5640000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We may experience difficulties in the development and production of our products" (SEC filing, Dec 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936395/000162828025056698/cien-20251101.htm (filed 2025-12-12); We may experience difficulties in the development and production of our products

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 32.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.4722423481455421. Price 356.52; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.7104437098775197 → FY2025 0.8491545494602335. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $19.38 per share

- 2016-11: $21.45 per share

- 2016-12: $24.41 per share

- 2017-01: $24.34 per share

- 2017-02: $26.34 per share

- 2017-03: $23.61 per share

- 2017-04: $22.91 per share

- 2017-05: $23.48 per share

- 2017-06: $25.02 per share

- 2017-07: $25.75 per share

- 2017-08: $21.61 per share

- 2017-09: $21.97 per share

- 2017-10: $21.27 per share

- 2017-11: $21.75 per share

- 2017-12: $20.93 per share

- 2018-01: $21.28 per share

- 2018-02: $23.17 per share

- 2018-03: $25.90 per share

- 2018-04: $25.75 per share

- 2018-05: $23.05 per share

- 2018-06: $26.51 per share

- 2018-07: $25.40 per share

- 2018-08: $31.58 per share

- 2018-09: $31.24 per share

- 2018-10: $31.26 per share

- 2018-11: $32.62 per share

- 2018-12: $33.91 per share

- 2019-01: $38.09 per share

- 2019-02: $42.66 per share

- 2019-03: $37.34 per share

- 2019-04: $38.36 per share

- 2019-05: $34.94 per share

- 2019-06: $41.13 per share

- 2019-07: $45.22 per share

- 2019-08: $40.93 per share

- 2019-09: $39.23 per share

- 2019-10: $37.12 per share

- 2019-11: $37.96 per share

- 2019-12: $42.69 per share

- 2020-01: $40.67 per share

- 2020-02: $38.45 per share

- 2020-03: $39.81 per share

- 2020-04: $46.25 per share

- 2020-05: $55.26 per share

- 2020-06: $54.16 per share

- 2020-07: $59.51 per share

- 2020-08: $56.77 per share

- 2020-09: $39.69 per share

- 2020-10: $39.39 per share

- 2020-11: $44.80 per share

- 2020-12: $52.85 per share

- 2021-01: $53.39 per share

- 2021-02: $52.17 per share

- 2021-03: $54.72 per share

- 2021-04: $50.47 per share

- 2021-05: $52.87 per share

- 2021-06: $56.89 per share

- 2021-07: $58.14 per share

- 2021-08: $57.13 per share

- 2021-09: $51.35 per share

- 2021-10: $54.29 per share

- 2021-11: $60.23 per share

- 2021-12: $76.97 per share

- 2022-01: $66.31 per share

- 2022-02: $68.42 per share

- 2022-03: $60.63 per share

- 2022-04: $55.17 per share

- 2022-05: $50.82 per share

- 2022-06: $45.70 per share

- 2022-07: $51.60 per share

- 2022-08: $50.74 per share

- 2022-09: $40.43 per share

- 2022-10: $47.90 per share

- 2022-11: $44.96 per share

- 2022-12: $50.98 per share

- 2023-01: $52.02 per share

- 2023-02: $48.22 per share

- 2023-03: $52.52 per share

- 2023-04: $46.04 per share

- 2023-05: $46.74 per share

- 2023-06: $42.49 per share

- 2023-07: $42.20 per share

- 2023-08: $49.98 per share

- 2023-09: $47.26 per share

- 2023-10: $42.20 per share

- 2023-11: $45.85 per share

- 2023-12: $45.01 per share

- 2024-01: $53.00 per share

- 2024-02: $56.98 per share

- 2024-03: $49.45 per share

- 2024-04: $46.23 per share

- 2024-05: $48.17 per share

- 2024-06: $48.18 per share

- 2024-07: $52.74 per share

- 2024-08: $57.65 per share

- 2024-09: $61.59 per share

- 2024-10: $63.51 per share

- 2024-11: $69.72 per share

- 2024-12: $84.81 per share

- 2025-01: $87.14 per share

- 2025-02: $79.57 per share

- 2025-03: $60.43 per share

- 2025-04: $67.16 per share

- 2025-05: $80.06 per share

- 2025-06: $81.33 per share

- 2025-07: $92.84 per share

- 2025-08: $93.97 per share

- 2025-09: $145.67 per share

- 2025-10: $189.92 per share

- 2025-11: $204.21 per share

- 2025-12: $233.87 per share

- 2026-01: $251.81 per share

- 2026-02: $348.70 per share

- 2026-03: $388.23 per share

- 2026-04: $527.58 per share

- 2026-05: $580.23 per share

- 2026-06: $490.56 per share

- 2026-07: $377.05 per share

- 2026-08: $382.80 per share

- 2026-09: $351.82 per share

- 2026-10: $400.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $8.95 per share, central $9.75 per share, high $10.28 per share

- FY2017: low $12.12 per share, central $14.10 per share, high $15.62 per share

- FY2018: low $15.82 per share, central $19.85 per share, high $22.29 per share

- FY2019: low $16.18 per share, central $17.59 per share, high $19.46 per share

- FY2020: low $29.22 per share, central $32.22 per share, high $36.21 per share

- FY2021: low $39.16 per share, central $43.21 per share, high $48.61 per share

- FY2022: low $31.44 per share, central $36.68 per share, high $41.58 per share

- FY2023: low $37.54 per share, central $45.02 per share, high $51.38 per share

- FY2024: low $29.07 per share, central $33.38 per share, high $37.56 per share

- FY2025: low $29.34 per share, central $33.51 per share, high $37.65 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:06.344Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936395/000162828025056698/cien-20251101.htm); period 2025-11-01, filed 2025-12-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.