# Cincinnati Financial (CINF.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CINF

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:26.941Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $167.22 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $153.66 per share, central $192.07 per share, high $256.10 per share. Buy at or below the central value $192.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:26.941Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.6% at the stated quote. About 10.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 9

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.63×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $591M

- FY2017: $1.0B

- FY2018: $287M

- FY2019: $2.0B

- FY2020: $1.2B

- FY2021: $2.9B

- FY2022: -$486M

- FY2023: $1.8B

- FY2024: $2.3B

- FY2025: $2.4B

### moat: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Underwriting economics assessed through return on tangible common equity

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 9.6%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 0.0%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.5%

- FY2017: 11.8%

- FY2018: 3.4%

- FY2019: 0.0%

- FY2020: 0.0%

- FY2021: 24.9%

- FY2022: -5.1%

- FY2023: 16.8%

- FY2024: 18.1%

- FY2025: 16.5%

### economics: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 14.2%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $38.81

- Ending book value per share: $100.89

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.0%

- FY2017: 22.8%

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: 30.0%

- FY2020: 15.1%

- FY2021: 21.7%

- FY2022: -11.8%

- FY2023: 19.4%

- FY2024: 19.5%

- FY2025: 18.0%

### management: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.5%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.6%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.17×

- Book value created per share: $62.08

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $52.88

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 101

- FY2017: 100

- FY2018: 99

- FY2019: 100

- FY2020: 98

- FY2021: 98

- FY2022: 96

- FY2023: 95

- FY2024: 95

- FY2025: 95

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 5.4% a year forever · "Price increases with enhanced precision continue to benefit operating results." (SEC filing, Feb 2026) · net income +4.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:30.534Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 5.4% a year forever

- 2025-04-28: Cincinnati Financial swings to quarterly loss on California wildfire woes ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cincinnati-financial-swings-quarterly-loss-210036731.html))

- 2025-10-29: Cincinnati Financial (CINF): Margin Decline Reinforces Bear Case Despite Attractive Valuation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cincinnati-financial-cinf-margin-decline-045505967.html))

- 2026-02-10: Cincinnati Financial Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Underwriting Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cincinnati-financial-q4-earnings-beat-161500854.html))

- 2026-04-28: Cincinnati Financial Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Premiums ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cincinnati-financial-q1-earnings-beat-165300675.html))

- 2026-07-28: CINF Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y on Premium Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cinf-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-171700704.html))

- 2026-10-02: CINF to Benefit From Strong Premium Growth and Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cinf-benefit-strong-premium-growth-131500481.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +4.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20286/000002028626000008/cinf-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: $591M 

- FY2017: $1.0B 

- FY2018: $287M 

- FY2019: $2.0B 

- FY2020: $1.2B 

- FY2021: $2.9B 

- FY2022: -$486M 

- FY2023: $1.8B 

- FY2024: $2.3B 

- FY2025: $2.4B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance property & casualty; annual sales are USD 12.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20286/000002028626000008/cinf-20251231.htm#000002028626000008 (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: revenue 12631000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CINF.US: Cincinnati Financial Corporation provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments. The Commercial Lines Insurance segment offers coverage for commercial casualty and property, commercial auto, and workers' compensation. This segment also provides contract and commercial surety bonds, and fidelity bonds; management liability; and machinery and equipment insurance products. The Personal Lines Insurance segment offers personal auto; homeowner; and other personal lines insurance, such as dwelling fire, inland marine, personal umbrella liability, and watercraft coverages. The Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance segment offers commercial casualty insurance that covers businesses for third-party liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, such as injuries sustained from products, as well as other coverages comprising miscellaneous errors and omissions, professional liability, and excess liability; and commercial property insurance, which insures buildings, inventory, equipment, and business income from loss or damage due to various causes, such as fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism. The Life Insurance segment provides term life insurance; universal life insurance; and worksite and whole life insurance products, as well as annuities. The Investments segment invests in fixed-maturity investments, including taxable and tax-exempt bonds, and redeemable preferred stocks; and equity investments comprising common and nonredeemable preferred stocks. The company also offers commercial leasing and financing services; and insurance brokerage services. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

It earns 9.6% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.07534421213666496],[2017,0.11761395610579628],[2018,0.03442485306465155],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0.2490489475019021],[2022,-0.0510557831705011],[2023,0.1679271070615034],[2024,0.18099976308931534],[2025,0.1646144321386806]]; median 0.09647908412123063. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"Our 6% increase in 2025 agency renewal written premiums included higher average pricing." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20286/000002028626000008/cinf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); Our 6% increase in 2025 agency renewal written premiums included higher average pricing.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 205 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,306000000],[2017,400000000],[2018,336000000],[2019,355000000],[2020,375000000],[2021,395000000],[2022,423000000],[2023,454000000],[2024,490000000],[2025,525000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20286/000002028626000008/cinf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 205000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CINF.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.728 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Elevated inflation negatively impacts profit and the value of investments." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20286/000002028626000008/cinf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); Elevated inflation negatively impacts profit and the value of investments.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 5.4% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Price 167.22; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 7.682903701014567; discount 0.1; growth 0.054055114812734326. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $70.78 per share

- 2016-11: $76.74 per share

- 2016-12: $75.75 per share

- 2017-01: $70.58 per share

- 2017-02: $72.96 per share

- 2017-03: $72.27 per share

- 2017-04: $72.09 per share

- 2017-05: $70.08 per share

- 2017-06: $72.45 per share

- 2017-07: $76.18 per share

- 2017-08: $76.84 per share

- 2017-09: $76.57 per share

- 2017-10: $70.17 per share

- 2017-11: $74.73 per share

- 2017-12: $74.97 per share

- 2018-01: $76.90 per share

- 2018-02: $74.59 per share

- 2018-03: $74.26 per share

- 2018-04: $70.34 per share

- 2018-05: $69.37 per share

- 2018-06: $66.86 per share

- 2018-07: $75.63 per share

- 2018-08: $76.67 per share

- 2018-09: $76.81 per share

- 2018-10: $78.64 per share

- 2018-11: $81.73 per share

- 2018-12: $77.42 per share

- 2019-01: $81.12 per share

- 2019-02: $86.82 per share

- 2019-03: $85.90 per share

- 2019-04: $96.18 per share

- 2019-05: $98.24 per share

- 2019-06: $103.67 per share

- 2019-07: $107.33 per share

- 2019-08: $112.49 per share

- 2019-09: $116.67 per share

- 2019-10: $113.21 per share

- 2019-11: $107.05 per share

- 2019-12: $105.15 per share

- 2020-01: $104.95 per share

- 2020-02: $93.24 per share

- 2020-03: $75.45 per share

- 2020-04: $65.80 per share

- 2020-05: $58.95 per share

- 2020-06: $64.03 per share

- 2020-07: $77.93 per share

- 2020-08: $79.41 per share

- 2020-09: $77.97 per share

- 2020-10: $70.74 per share

- 2020-11: $76.35 per share

- 2020-12: $87.37 per share

- 2021-01: $84.09 per share

- 2021-02: $97.87 per share

- 2021-03: $103.09 per share

- 2021-04: $112.68 per share

- 2021-05: $121.71 per share

- 2021-06: $116.62 per share

- 2021-07: $117.88 per share

- 2021-08: $123.40 per share

- 2021-09: $114.22 per share

- 2021-10: $121.44 per share

- 2021-11: $113.90 per share

- 2021-12: $113.93 per share

- 2022-01: $117.83 per share

- 2022-02: $122.79 per share

- 2022-03: $135.96 per share

- 2022-04: $122.66 per share

- 2022-05: $127.86 per share

- 2022-06: $118.98 per share

- 2022-07: $97.34 per share

- 2022-08: $96.96 per share

- 2022-09: $89.57 per share

- 2022-10: $103.32 per share

- 2022-11: $110.96 per share

- 2022-12: $102.39 per share

- 2023-01: $113.15 per share

- 2023-02: $120.70 per share

- 2023-03: $112.08 per share

- 2023-04: $106.44 per share

- 2023-05: $96.50 per share

- 2023-06: $97.32 per share

- 2023-07: $107.58 per share

- 2023-08: $105.79 per share

- 2023-09: $102.29 per share

- 2023-10: $99.67 per share

- 2023-11: $102.79 per share

- 2023-12: $103.46 per share

- 2024-01: $110.80 per share

- 2024-02: $114.00 per share

- 2024-03: $124.17 per share

- 2024-04: $115.69 per share

- 2024-05: $117.58 per share

- 2024-06: $118.10 per share

- 2024-07: $130.62 per share

- 2024-08: $137.03 per share

- 2024-09: $136.12 per share

- 2024-10: $140.83 per share

- 2024-11: $159.83 per share

- 2024-12: $143.70 per share

- 2025-01: $137.05 per share

- 2025-02: $147.81 per share

- 2025-03: $147.72 per share

- 2025-04: $139.21 per share

- 2025-05: $150.82 per share

- 2025-06: $148.92 per share

- 2025-07: $147.51 per share

- 2025-08: $153.60 per share

- 2025-09: $158.10 per share

- 2025-10: $154.59 per share

- 2025-11: $167.59 per share

- 2025-12: $163.32 per share

- 2026-01: $160.89 per share

- 2026-02: $163.98 per share

- 2026-03: $157.35 per share

- 2026-04: $163.60 per share

- 2026-05: $157.42 per share

- 2026-06: $185.14 per share

- 2026-07: $177.68 per share

- 2026-08: $169.90 per share

- 2026-09: $159.37 per share

- 2026-10: $167.22 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $26.73 per share, central $30.68 per share, high $36.00 per share

- FY2017: low $30.37 per share, central $34.86 per share, high $40.90 per share

- FY2018: low $28.06 per share, central $32.17 per share, high $37.70 per share

- FY2021: low $45.37 per share, central $53.05 per share, high $63.86 per share

- FY2022: low $45.79 per share, central $50.37 per share, high $55.96 per share

- FY2023: low $57.83 per share, central $72.29 per share, high $96.38 per share

- FY2024: low $88.53 per share, central $110.66 per share, high $147.55 per share

- FY2025: low $149.54 per share, central $186.93 per share, high $249.24 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20286/000002028626000008/cinf-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.