# Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CLF

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:28.035Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $12.15 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $12.14 per share, central $13.81 per share, high $16.04 per share. Buy at or below the central value $13.81 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:28.035Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.0% at the stated quote. About 11.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.22×

- FY2020: -0.03×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: -0.04×

- FY2025: -0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 18.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -4.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 18.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): -4.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 59.8%

- FY2017: 41.1%

- FY2018: 38.9%

- FY2019: 18.9%

- FY2020: -1.9%

- FY2021: 32.9%

- FY2022: 13.5%

- FY2023: 5.0%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -8.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.62×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -35.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.07×

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 1.82×

- FY2024: 0.66×

- FY2025: 0.54×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 41.1% vs -4.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.87 to -1.57 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 12.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 6.0%

- Market cap gain: $5.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 12.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$2.44

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.87

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.57

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.26

- Average buyback yield: 7.6%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $3.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 41.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -4.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.87

- FY2017: $1.28

- FY2018: $3.71

- FY2019: $1.03

- FY2020: -$0.32

- FY2021: $5.35

- FY2022: $2.55

- FY2023: $0.78

- FY2024: -$1.57

- FY2025: -$2.91

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.94×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.48×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.7%

- FY2017: 1.2%

- FY2018: 18.4%

- FY2019: -7.7%

- FY2020: 0.8%

- FY2021: 1.1%

- FY2022: -5.8%

- FY2023: -10.5%

- FY2024: -4.1%

- FY2025: -5.1%

## Holders

- [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 62% since Mar 2022 · "Cleveland-Cliffs slides as report shows Stelco idling plant over US tariffs" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:30.760Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-07: Cleveland-Cliffs to Pause Operations at Several Plants After Wider Loss, Lower Revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/87420112-2930-3776-8ea2-ae852d34ff93/cleveland-cliffs-to-pause.html))

- 2025-06-23: Cleveland Cliffs Surged 25% in Early June on the Back of Steel Tariffs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-surged-25-early-152550915.html))

- 2025-07-21: Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Credits Trump Tariffs For Q2 Steel Rebound ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-ceo-credits-trump-141024070.html))

- 2026-02-09: Cleveland-Cliffs shares drop as revenue misses expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-shares-drop-revenue-114245507.html))

- 2026-04-20: Cleveland-Cliffs stock drops on $80 million Q1 energy cost ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/cleveland-cliffs-stock-drops-on-80-million-q1-energy-cost-164014830.html))

- 2026-07-23: Stock Market Today, July 23: Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Soars on Robust Steel Demand and Pricing ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-market-today-july-23-cleveland-cliffs-stock-soars-robust-steel-demand-and-pricing))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000025/clf-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-09.

- FY2016: $2.1B 

- FY2017: $2.3B 

- FY2018: $2.3B 

- FY2019: $2.0B 

- FY2020: $5.4B 

- FY2021: $20B 

- FY2022: $23B 

- FY2023: $22B 

- FY2024: $19B 

- FY2025: $19B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 0.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000025/clf-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-09.

- FY2016: 18.5% 

- FY2017: 21.9% 

- FY2018: 34.7% 

- FY2019: 28.9% 

- FY2020: 4.7% 

- FY2021: 22.2% 

- FY2022: 11.0% 

- FY2023: 6.3% 

- FY2024: 0.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in steel; annual sales are USD 18.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000025/clf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: revenue 18610000000; grossProfit -763000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CLF.US: Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a steel producer in the United States and Canada. It offers hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated products, such as aluminized, electrogalvanized, and galvalume products, as well as galvanneal and hot-dipped galvanized products; stainless and electrical products, including GOES, NOES, and auto chrome; plate products; and slab and other steel products. The company also provides non- steelmaking products comprising stamped components, tool and die, and tubing; and scrap, iron ore, HBI, coal, and coke products. It also provides tubular components, including carbon steel, stainless steel, and electric resistance welded tubing products. In addition, the company is involved in the mining of iron ore; production of pellets and direct reduced iron; and processing of ferrous scrap through primary steelmaking and downstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing. It serves direct automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, distributors and converters, and steel producers. The company was formerly known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. and changed its name to Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. in August 2017. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

It earns 16.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 6.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 0.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000025/clf-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = -4.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5976669148672127],[2017,0.41083499952394553],[2018,0.3892679542037701],[2019,0.18937482285853635],[2020,-0.018591315876698707],[2021,0.3291647140352506],[2022,0.13451181088039968],[2023,0.04955883825069152],[2024,-0.04746026700572155],[2025,-0.08627899484536082]]; median 0.161943316869468. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 69100000; owner earnings 220400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2017: growth capex 68000000; upkeep 87700000; owner earnings 374900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18138170178714325.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2018: growth capex 1012515.4912400246; upkeep 295087484.50876; owner earnings 922012515.49124. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.001098158077280074.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 705000000; owner earnings 3187000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 943000000; owner earnings 1426000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 646000000; owner earnings 726000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Dividend observations: [[2016,59900000],[2017,52900000],[2018,44200000],[2019,116300000],[2020,41000000],[2021,6962000000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CLF.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.8580000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.022755700249367683. Price 12.15; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -4.548828125 → FY2025 -1.5826771653543308. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $5.52 per share

- 2016-11: $8.81 per share

- 2016-12: $8.41 per share

- 2017-01: $8.77 per share

- 2017-02: $10.66 per share

- 2017-03: $8.21 per share

- 2017-04: $6.72 per share

- 2017-05: $5.89 per share

- 2017-06: $6.92 per share

- 2017-07: $7.72 per share

- 2017-08: $8.36 per share

- 2017-09: $7.15 per share

- 2017-10: $5.96 per share

- 2017-11: $6.66 per share

- 2017-12: $7.21 per share

- 2018-01: $6.85 per share

- 2018-02: $7.03 per share

- 2018-03: $6.95 per share

- 2018-04: $7.42 per share

- 2018-05: $8.46 per share

- 2018-06: $8.43 per share

- 2018-07: $10.79 per share

- 2018-08: $10.05 per share

- 2018-09: $12.66 per share

- 2018-10: $10.76 per share

- 2018-11: $9.28 per share

- 2018-12: $7.69 per share

- 2019-01: $10.71 per share

- 2019-02: $11.09 per share

- 2019-03: $9.99 per share

- 2019-04: $9.99 per share

- 2019-05: $8.70 per share

- 2019-06: $10.67 per share

- 2019-07: $10.66 per share

- 2019-08: $7.94 per share

- 2019-09: $7.22 per share

- 2019-10: $7.23 per share

- 2019-11: $7.99 per share

- 2019-12: $8.40 per share

- 2020-01: $7.02 per share

- 2020-02: $5.81 per share

- 2020-03: $3.95 per share

- 2020-04: $4.38 per share

- 2020-05: $5.22 per share

- 2020-06: $5.52 per share

- 2020-07: $5.18 per share

- 2020-08: $6.58 per share

- 2020-09: $6.42 per share

- 2020-10: $8.28 per share

- 2020-11: $11.01 per share

- 2020-12: $14.56 per share

- 2021-01: $15.34 per share

- 2021-02: $13.34 per share

- 2021-03: $20.11 per share

- 2021-04: $17.86 per share

- 2021-05: $20.12 per share

- 2021-06: $21.56 per share

- 2021-07: $25.00 per share

- 2021-08: $23.47 per share

- 2021-09: $19.81 per share

- 2021-10: $24.11 per share

- 2021-11: $20.35 per share

- 2021-12: $21.77 per share

- 2022-01: $17.14 per share

- 2022-02: $22.36 per share

- 2022-03: $32.21 per share

- 2022-04: $25.49 per share

- 2022-05: $23.18 per share

- 2022-06: $15.37 per share

- 2022-07: $17.71 per share

- 2022-08: $17.27 per share

- 2022-09: $13.47 per share

- 2022-10: $12.99 per share

- 2022-11: $15.48 per share

- 2022-12: $16.11 per share

- 2023-01: $21.35 per share

- 2023-02: $21.33 per share

- 2023-03: $18.33 per share

- 2023-04: $15.38 per share

- 2023-05: $13.88 per share

- 2023-06: $16.76 per share

- 2023-07: $17.65 per share

- 2023-08: $15.29 per share

- 2023-09: $15.63 per share

- 2023-10: $16.78 per share

- 2023-11: $17.16 per share

- 2023-12: $20.42 per share

- 2024-01: $20.05 per share

- 2024-02: $20.80 per share

- 2024-03: $22.74 per share

- 2024-04: $16.90 per share

- 2024-05: $17.28 per share

- 2024-06: $15.39 per share

- 2024-07: $15.35 per share

- 2024-08: $13.06 per share

- 2024-09: $12.77 per share

- 2024-10: $12.98 per share

- 2024-11: $12.45 per share

- 2024-12: $9.40 per share

- 2025-01: $10.24 per share

- 2025-02: $10.84 per share

- 2025-03: $8.22 per share

- 2025-04: $8.24 per share

- 2025-05: $5.83 per share

- 2025-06: $7.60 per share

- 2025-07: $10.52 per share

- 2025-08: $10.75 per share

- 2025-09: $12.20 per share

- 2025-10: $12.43 per share

- 2025-11: $13.04 per share

- 2025-12: $13.28 per share

- 2026-01: $13.76 per share

- 2026-02: $10.66 per share

- 2026-03: $8.45 per share

- 2026-04: $10.20 per share

- 2026-05: $13.60 per share

- 2026-06: $9.39 per share

- 2026-07: $11.52 per share

- 2026-08: $11.55 per share

- 2026-09: $11.01 per share

- 2026-10: $12.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $5.50 per share, central $5.80 per share, high $6.21 per share

- FY2018: low $11.32 per share, central $12.53 per share, high $14.14 per share

- FY2019: low $9.10 per share, central $10.21 per share, high $11.68 per share

- FY2020: low $16.15 per share, central $18.37 per share, high $21.33 per share

- FY2021: low $62.43 per share, central $71.04 per share, high $82.49 per share

- FY2022: low $30.19 per share, central $34.89 per share, high $40.56 per share

- FY2023: low $16.61 per share, central $20.29 per share, high $23.66 per share

- FY2024: low $14.42 per share, central $16.41 per share, high $19.05 per share

- FY2025: low $13.22 per share, central $15.04 per share, high $17.46 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000025/clf-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.