# Clearwater Paper (CLW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CLW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:29.307Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $19.30 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $52.86 per share, central $59.60 per share, high $68.56 per share. Buy at or below the central value $59.60 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:29.307Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 30.0% at the stated quote. About 30.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 6

- Operating margin variation: 2.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: -0.06×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: -0.03×

- FY2025: 0.01×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -3.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 7.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.0%

- FY2017: 6.7%

- FY2018: -6.5%

- FY2019: 2.6%

- FY2020: 10.0%

- FY2021: 0.8%

- FY2022: 7.2%

- FY2023: 12.4%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: 0.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $192M

- Net income, five-year total: -$3.9M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.1%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: $39M

- FY2022: $116M

- FY2023: $75M

- FY2024: -$111M

- FY2025: $74M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.7% vs 0.8%

- Per-share earnings: 2.97 to -1.15 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: -$840M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $292M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$4.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.15

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.29

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $81M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $71M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 0.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.90

- FY2017: $5.88

- FY2018: -$8.72

- FY2019: -$0.34

- FY2020: $4.61

- FY2021: -$1.68

- FY2022: $2.68

- FY2023: $6.30

- FY2024: -$6.61

- FY2025: -$1.15

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -1.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.92×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 30.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.3%

- FY2017: -4.5%

- FY2018: -17.5%

- FY2019: -3.3%

- FY2020: -9.4%

- FY2021: -7.4%

- FY2022: -6.1%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -10.3%

- FY2025: -1.2%

## Holders

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 65% since Jul 2024 · "Clearwater Paper signals $70M pricing headwind for 2026 as industry supply pressures persist" (seekingalpha.com, Feb 2026) · sales -2.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:31.038Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 15.7% a year for ten years

- 2026-02-18: Clearwater Paper signals $70M pricing headwind for 2026 as industry supply pressures persist ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4553693-clearwater-paper-signals-70m-pricing-headwind-for-2026-as-industry-supply-pressures-persist?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-28: Clearwater Paper expects $20M-$30M Q3 adjusted EBITDA amid price increases and outage cost cuts ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4619959-clearwater-paper-expects-20m-30m-q3-adjusted-ebitda-amid-price-increases-and-outage-cost-cuts?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -2.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000144123626000007/clw-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: $1.7B 

- FY2018: $1.7B 

- FY2019: $1.8B 

- FY2020: $1.9B 

- FY2021: $1.8B 

- FY2022: $2.1B 

- FY2023: $1.1B 

- FY2024: $1.4B 

- FY2025: $1.6B 

- FY2026: $1.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 7.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000144123626000007/clw-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 13.9% 

- FY2017: 12.1% 

- FY2018: 10.9% 

- FY2019: 9.3% 

- FY2020: 15.7% 

- FY2021: 10.3% 

- FY2022: 12.3% 

- FY2023: 17.7% 

- FY2024: 5.5% 

- FY2025: 7.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in paper & paper products; annual sales are USD 1.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000144123626000007/clw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 1555400000; grossProfit 115600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); CLW.US: Clearwater Paper Corporation manufactures and supplies solid bleached sulfate (SBS) paperboard packaging products in the United States and internationally. The company offers SBS paperboard for use in folding cartons, food service, and commercial printing items; folding carton paperboards, such as blister, carded packaging, and top sheet products; food service paperboard, including liquid packaging, and cup and plate categories, as well as rigid containers comprising juice, milk, and wine; and custom sheeting and slitting of paperboard products. It serves packaging converters through sales managers. The company was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 5.5% to 17.7% during 2023–25; it earns 4.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 5.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000144123626000007/clw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 7.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08016631507227656],[2017,0.0666988294917493],[2018,-0.06508070610054309],[2019,0.02642257256519817],[2020,0.10028229902668785],[2021,0.008247781451191927],[2022,0.07233421508711119],[2023,0.1235320414765796],[2024,-0.03090648854961832],[2025,0.007728519978801499]]; median 0.04656070102847373. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years; bought back USD 17.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 199748000; owner earnings 2591000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 39600000; owner earnings 148500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 38400000; owner earnings 38500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 33500000; owner earnings 115800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 73700000; owner earnings 74700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000144123626000007/clw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 88800; owner earnings 73711200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000144123626000007/clw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 17200000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); CLW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.6189999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 15.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 21.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.2303464761900777. Price 19.3; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.6276734436057754 → FY2025 4.558797699301132. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $53.10 per share

- 2016-11: $62.20 per share

- 2016-12: $65.55 per share

- 2017-01: $62.90 per share

- 2017-02: $55.60 per share

- 2017-03: $56.00 per share

- 2017-04: $48.60 per share

- 2017-05: $46.35 per share

- 2017-06: $46.75 per share

- 2017-07: $49.15 per share

- 2017-08: $46.50 per share

- 2017-09: $49.25 per share

- 2017-10: $46.15 per share

- 2017-11: $47.45 per share

- 2017-12: $45.40 per share

- 2018-01: $47.05 per share

- 2018-02: $37.60 per share

- 2018-03: $39.10 per share

- 2018-04: $23.65 per share

- 2018-05: $24.05 per share

- 2018-06: $23.10 per share

- 2018-07: $22.60 per share

- 2018-08: $29.05 per share

- 2018-09: $29.70 per share

- 2018-10: $24.14 per share

- 2018-11: $30.81 per share

- 2018-12: $24.37 per share

- 2019-01: $33.72 per share

- 2019-02: $28.60 per share

- 2019-03: $19.48 per share

- 2019-04: $20.17 per share

- 2019-05: $16.11 per share

- 2019-06: $18.49 per share

- 2019-07: $19.63 per share

- 2019-08: $16.02 per share

- 2019-09: $21.12 per share

- 2019-10: $18.54 per share

- 2019-11: $21.89 per share

- 2019-12: $21.36 per share

- 2020-01: $28.20 per share

- 2020-02: $27.27 per share

- 2020-03: $21.81 per share

- 2020-04: $23.94 per share

- 2020-05: $28.97 per share

- 2020-06: $36.13 per share

- 2020-07: $36.92 per share

- 2020-08: $33.66 per share

- 2020-09: $37.94 per share

- 2020-10: $37.15 per share

- 2020-11: $34.91 per share

- 2020-12: $37.75 per share

- 2021-01: $38.08 per share

- 2021-02: $35.01 per share

- 2021-03: $37.62 per share

- 2021-04: $33.46 per share

- 2021-05: $28.53 per share

- 2021-06: $28.97 per share

- 2021-07: $29.49 per share

- 2021-08: $32.49 per share

- 2021-09: $38.33 per share

- 2021-10: $41.83 per share

- 2021-11: $40.25 per share

- 2021-12: $36.67 per share

- 2022-01: $31.62 per share

- 2022-02: $28.83 per share

- 2022-03: $28.03 per share

- 2022-04: $33.11 per share

- 2022-05: $34.35 per share

- 2022-06: $33.63 per share

- 2022-07: $35.70 per share

- 2022-08: $42.54 per share

- 2022-09: $37.60 per share

- 2022-10: $44.48 per share

- 2022-11: $39.03 per share

- 2022-12: $37.81 per share

- 2023-01: $38.61 per share

- 2023-02: $38.59 per share

- 2023-03: $33.42 per share

- 2023-04: $36.10 per share

- 2023-05: $30.39 per share

- 2023-06: $31.32 per share

- 2023-07: $32.23 per share

- 2023-08: $38.29 per share

- 2023-09: $36.25 per share

- 2023-10: $33.81 per share

- 2023-11: $35.07 per share

- 2023-12: $36.12 per share

- 2024-01: $32.97 per share

- 2024-02: $39.29 per share

- 2024-03: $43.73 per share

- 2024-04: $45.04 per share

- 2024-05: $53.14 per share

- 2024-06: $48.47 per share

- 2024-07: $55.47 per share

- 2024-08: $33.27 per share

- 2024-09: $28.54 per share

- 2024-10: $25.19 per share

- 2024-11: $27.12 per share

- 2024-12: $29.77 per share

- 2025-01: $32.15 per share

- 2025-02: $26.15 per share

- 2025-03: $25.37 per share

- 2025-04: $26.86 per share

- 2025-05: $28.79 per share

- 2025-06: $27.24 per share

- 2025-07: $22.56 per share

- 2025-08: $21.57 per share

- 2025-09: $20.76 per share

- 2025-10: $17.65 per share

- 2025-11: $18.19 per share

- 2025-12: $17.40 per share

- 2026-01: $16.82 per share

- 2026-02: $14.99 per share

- 2026-03: $14.38 per share

- 2026-04: $13.71 per share

- 2026-05: $16.30 per share

- 2026-06: $15.68 per share

- 2026-07: $21.03 per share

- 2026-08: $20.99 per share

- 2026-09: $19.16 per share

- 2026-10: $19.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $1.71 per share, central $1.95 per share, high $2.26 per share

- FY2021: low $1.73 per share, central $1.97 per share, high $2.29 per share

- FY2022: low $29.49 per share, central $33.45 per share, high $38.73 per share

- FY2023: low $41.57 per share, central $47.15 per share, high $54.57 per share

- FY2024: low $53.26 per share, central $60.18 per share, high $69.39 per share

- FY2025: low $49.83 per share, central $56.70 per share, high $65.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000144123626000007/clw-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.