# Commercial Metals (CMC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CMC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:30.252Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $65.37 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $52.18 per share, central $58.90 per share, high $67.84 per share. Buy at or below the central value $58.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:30.252Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.2% at the stated quote. About 9.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.40×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- LTM to May 2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.4%

- FY2018: 9.2%

- FY2019: 9.6%

- FY2020: 14.0%

- FY2021: 16.6%

- FY2022: 27.2%

- FY2023: 20.8%

- FY2024: 12.5%

- FY2025: 9.9%

- LTM to May 2026: 13.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.83×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 25.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.55×

- FY2024: 0.91×

- FY2025: -0.38×

- LTM to May 2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.4% vs 12.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.47 to 4.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: $4.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 31.3%

- Per-share value change: $3.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.47

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.02

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $569M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.47

- FY2017: $0.39

- FY2018: $1.17

- FY2019: $1.66

- FY2020: $2.32

- FY2021: $3.38

- FY2022: $9.95

- FY2023: $7.25

- FY2024: $4.14

- FY2025: $0.74

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 8.45×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -17.0%

- FY2017: -4.3%

- FY2018: -0.6%

- FY2019: 4.3%

- FY2020: -12.5%

- FY2021: 4.0%

- FY2022: 8.3%

- FY2023: -7.3%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: -8.8%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.3% a year for ten years · sales +13.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:31.178Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-23: Commercial Metals Third-Quarter Results Miss Views as North American Steel Sales Fall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commercial-metals-third-quarter-results-150737078.html))

- 2025-11-28: Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-earnings-estimates-signal-upside-172002533.html))

- 2026-01-17: Earnings Rebound And Acquisition Integration Could Be A Game Changer For Commercial Metals (CMC) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-rebound-acquisition-integration-could-091051992.html))

- 2026-04-03: Commercial Metals Dividend Increase Highlights Earnings Growth From Precast Acquisitions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/commercial-metals-dividend-increase-highlights-002144342.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +13.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22444/000002244425000138/cmc-20250831.htm; observed 2025-10-16.

- FY2017: $3.8B 

- FY2018: $4.6B 

- FY2019: $5.8B 

- FY2020: $5.5B 

- FY2021: $6.7B 

- FY2022: $8.9B 

- FY2023: $8.8B 

- FY2024: $7.9B 

- FY2025: $7.8B 

- FY2026: $8.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 18.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22444/000002244425000138/cmc-20250831.htm; observed 2025-10-16.

- FY2017: 13.6% 

- FY2018: 13.4% 

- FY2019: 13.8% 

- FY2020: 17.3% 

- FY2021: 16.4% 

- FY2022: 20.8% 

- FY2023: 20.6% 

- FY2024: 17.1% 

- FY2025: 15.6% 

- FY2026: 18.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in metal fabrication; annual sales are USD 7.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22444/000002244425000138/cmc-20250831.htm (filed 2025-10-16); FY2025: revenue 7798480000; grossProfit 1220156000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CMC.US: Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, and related materials and services in the United States, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Steel Group; Europe Steel Group; and Emerging Businesses Group. The company processes and sells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals to steel mills and foundries, aluminum sheet and ingot manufacturers, brass and bronze ingot makers, copper refineries and mills, secondary lead smelters, specialty steel mills, high temperature alloy manufacturers, and other consumers. It also manufactures and sells finished long steel products, including reinforcing bar, merchant bar, light structural, wire rod, and other special sections, as well as semi-finished billets for rerolling and forging applications. In addition, the company provides fabricated rebar used to reinforce concrete primarily in the construction of commercial and non-commercial buildings, hospitals, convention centers, industrial plants, power plants, highways, bridges, arenas, stadiums, and dams; sells and rents construction-related products and equipment to concrete installers and other businesses; and manufactures and sells strength bars for the truck trailer industry, special bar steels for the energy market, and armor plates for military vehicles. Further, it sells wire meshes, welded steel mesh, wire rod, cold rolled rebar, cold rolled wire rod, assembled rebar cages and other fabricated rebar by-products to fabricators, manufacturers, distributors, and construction companies. The company was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.6% to 20.6% during 2023–25; it earns 13.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22444/000002244425000138/cmc-20250831.htm (filed 2025-10-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.05384041987414168],[2018,0.09184849341508104],[2019,0.09644681421037246],[2020,0.13962993101290422],[2021,0.16582894806173443],[2022,0.2724802601532448],[2023,0.2083356842769009],[2024,0.12476599600041645],[2025,0.09940949897272612],[2026,0.13690833376523964]]; median 0.13083716488282804. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 207.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 163332000; owner earnings 18370000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2017: growth capex 47817303.573979765; upkeep 165302696.42602023; owner earnings 6100303.573979765. Growth capex / owner earnings = 7.838512132074818.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2018: growth capex 42996000; upkeep 131659000; owner earnings 138506000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3104269851125583.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 138836000; owner earnings 217928000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 187618000; owner earnings 257643000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2021: growth capex 16552000; upkeep 167613000; owner earnings 412865000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04009058651132937.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2022: growth capex 274964000; upkeep 175024000; owner earnings 1217262000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2258872781701885.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 606665000; owner earnings 471925000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 324271000; owner earnings 441587000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); Dividend observations: [[2016,55342000],[2017,55514000],[2018,56076000],[2019,56537000],[2020,57056000],[2021,57766000],[2022,67749000],[2023,74936000],[2024,78868000],[2025,81433000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22444/000002244425000138/cmc-20250831.htm (filed 2025-10-16); FY2025: cash repurchases 207645000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CMC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.642 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.019691051611142263. Price 65.37; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.785435185369978 → FY2025 -0.28296011587673414. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $15.71 per share

- 2016-11: $22.01 per share

- 2016-12: $21.78 per share

- 2017-01: $20.43 per share

- 2017-02: $21.13 per share

- 2017-03: $19.13 per share

- 2017-04: $18.64 per share

- 2017-05: $18.10 per share

- 2017-06: $19.43 per share

- 2017-07: $18.60 per share

- 2017-08: $18.89 per share

- 2017-09: $19.03 per share

- 2017-10: $19.48 per share

- 2017-11: $19.84 per share

- 2017-12: $21.32 per share

- 2018-01: $24.04 per share

- 2018-02: $24.30 per share

- 2018-03: $20.46 per share

- 2018-04: $21.01 per share

- 2018-05: $23.64 per share

- 2018-06: $21.11 per share

- 2018-07: $22.34 per share

- 2018-08: $21.60 per share

- 2018-09: $20.52 per share

- 2018-10: $19.06 per share

- 2018-11: $19.27 per share

- 2018-12: $16.02 per share

- 2019-01: $17.45 per share

- 2019-02: $16.55 per share

- 2019-03: $17.08 per share

- 2019-04: $17.29 per share

- 2019-05: $13.35 per share

- 2019-06: $17.85 per share

- 2019-07: $17.51 per share

- 2019-08: $15.67 per share

- 2019-09: $17.38 per share

- 2019-10: $19.33 per share

- 2019-11: $21.36 per share

- 2019-12: $22.27 per share

- 2020-01: $20.55 per share

- 2020-02: $18.26 per share

- 2020-03: $15.79 per share

- 2020-04: $15.94 per share

- 2020-05: $17.16 per share

- 2020-06: $20.40 per share

- 2020-07: $20.68 per share

- 2020-08: $20.87 per share

- 2020-09: $19.98 per share

- 2020-10: $20.65 per share

- 2020-11: $19.91 per share

- 2020-12: $20.54 per share

- 2021-01: $19.69 per share

- 2021-02: $25.15 per share

- 2021-03: $30.84 per share

- 2021-04: $29.22 per share

- 2021-05: $31.47 per share

- 2021-06: $30.72 per share

- 2021-07: $32.80 per share

- 2021-08: $32.62 per share

- 2021-09: $30.46 per share

- 2021-10: $32.18 per share

- 2021-11: $30.90 per share

- 2021-12: $36.29 per share

- 2022-01: $33.44 per share

- 2022-02: $38.55 per share

- 2022-03: $41.62 per share

- 2022-04: $41.00 per share

- 2022-05: $39.73 per share

- 2022-06: $33.10 per share

- 2022-07: $39.62 per share

- 2022-08: $40.51 per share

- 2022-09: $35.48 per share

- 2022-10: $45.50 per share

- 2022-11: $49.22 per share

- 2022-12: $48.30 per share

- 2023-01: $54.27 per share

- 2023-02: $51.75 per share

- 2023-03: $48.90 per share

- 2023-04: $46.69 per share

- 2023-05: $42.75 per share

- 2023-06: $52.66 per share

- 2023-07: $57.22 per share

- 2023-08: $56.29 per share

- 2023-09: $49.41 per share

- 2023-10: $42.29 per share

- 2023-11: $45.33 per share

- 2023-12: $50.04 per share

- 2024-01: $52.22 per share

- 2024-02: $54.00 per share

- 2024-03: $58.77 per share

- 2024-04: $53.74 per share

- 2024-05: $56.32 per share

- 2024-06: $54.99 per share

- 2024-07: $60.10 per share

- 2024-08: $53.59 per share

- 2024-09: $54.96 per share

- 2024-10: $53.80 per share

- 2024-11: $61.69 per share

- 2024-12: $49.60 per share

- 2025-01: $48.49 per share

- 2025-02: $48.44 per share

- 2025-03: $46.01 per share

- 2025-04: $44.54 per share

- 2025-05: $46.59 per share

- 2025-06: $48.91 per share

- 2025-07: $51.86 per share

- 2025-08: $57.67 per share

- 2025-09: $57.28 per share

- 2025-10: $59.36 per share

- 2025-11: $63.78 per share

- 2025-12: $69.22 per share

- 2026-01: $76.87 per share

- 2026-02: $73.30 per share

- 2026-03: $61.43 per share

- 2026-04: $68.96 per share

- 2026-05: $76.05 per share

- 2026-06: $62.75 per share

- 2026-07: $68.72 per share

- 2026-08: $67.47 per share

- 2026-09: $62.10 per share

- 2026-10: $65.37 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $10.19 per share, central $11.07 per share, high $12.24 per share

- FY2017: low $7.61 per share, central $8.45 per share, high $9.58 per share

- FY2018: low $11.82 per share, central $12.83 per share, high $14.18 per share

- FY2019: low $9.77 per share, central $11.03 per share, high $12.71 per share

- FY2020: low $18.44 per share, central $20.48 per share, high $23.21 per share

- FY2021: low $25.52 per share, central $28.63 per share, high $32.77 per share

- FY2022: low $42.45 per share, central $48.93 per share, high $56.25 per share

- FY2023: low $49.95 per share, central $60.13 per share, high $69.51 per share

- FY2024: low $48.82 per share, central $56.78 per share, high $65.11 per share

- FY2025: low $49.40 per share, central $55.14 per share, high $62.78 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22444/000002244425000138/cmc-20250831.htm); period 2025-08-31, filed 2025-10-16.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.