# CME Group (CME.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CME

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:31.236Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $289.46 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $132.75 per share, central $150.23 per share, high $173.51 per share. Buy at or below the central value $150.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:31.236Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.63×

- FY2018: 0.61×

- FY2019: 0.53×

- FY2020: 0.54×

- FY2021: 0.56×

- FY2022: 0.60×

- FY2023: 0.62×

- FY2024: 0.64×

- FY2025: 0.65×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.65×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 84.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 81.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 15.3%

- FY2018: 10.2%

- FY2019: 11.6%

- FY2020: 11.8%

- FY2021: 11.9%

- FY2022: 13.7%

- FY2023: 16.0%

- FY2024: 18.6%

- FY2025: 18.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 19.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.08×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $17B

- Net income, five-year total: $16B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -40.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -492.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 575.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.10×

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.09×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.3% vs 18.5%

- Per-share earnings: 4.53 to 9.80 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: $59B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 10.1%

- Per-share value change: $5.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.53

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.80

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.69

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $23B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $28B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.53

- FY2017: $11.94

- FY2018: $5.71

- FY2019: $5.91

- FY2020: $5.87

- FY2021: $7.35

- FY2022: $7.49

- FY2023: $8.97

- FY2024: $9.80

- FY2025: $11.22

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.06×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.3%

- FY2017: 2.9%

- FY2018: -0.6%

- FY2019: -0.7%

- FY2020: -0.5%

- FY2021: 0.1%

- FY2022: -0.2%

- FY2023: -0.2%

- FY2024: -0.1%

- FY2025: -0.1%

## Holders

- [Seth Klarman](https://gigainvestors.com/BAUPOST): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.4% a year for ten years · "CME beats profit estimates as volatility drives record trading quarter" (investing.com, Jul 2025) · sales +3.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:31.430Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: CME Group (NasdaqGS:CME) Reports First Quarter Earnings Growth With Revenue At US$1,642 Million ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cme-group-nasdaqgs-cme-reports-182927750.html))

- 2025-07-23: CME beats profit estimates as volatility drives record trading quarter ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/cmes-secondquarter-profit-rises-on-higher-trading-activity-4148086))

- 2026-01-18: Why CME Group (CME) Is Up 6.5% After Expanding Into New Altcoin Futures Offerings ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cme-group-cme-6-140640985.html))

- 2026-02-05: CME Q4 Deep Dive: Retail and Crypto Expansion Fuel Stable Results, New Products Ahead ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cme-q4-deep-dive-retail-053143886.html))

- 2026-07-22: CME Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record Market Data Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cme-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-152400491.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $3.6B 

- FY2018: $4.3B 

- FY2019: $4.9B 

- FY2020: $4.9B 

- FY2021: $4.7B 

- FY2022: $5.0B 

- FY2023: $5.6B 

- FY2024: $6.1B 

- FY2025: $6.5B 

- FY2026: $6.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 81.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: 84.5% 

- FY2018: 84.4% 

- FY2019: 81.5% 

- FY2020: 82.5% 

- FY2021: 82.2% 

- FY2022: 85.0% 

- FY2023: 85.1% 

- FY2024: 86.1% 

- FY2025: 86.1% 

- FY2026: 81.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in financial data & stock exchanges; annual sales are USD 6.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm#000115637526000009 (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 6520600000; grossProfit 5613600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CME.US: CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. CME Group Inc. partners with FutureSports to futures on sports indexes. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 85.1% to 86.1% during 2023–25; it earns 14.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 85.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 86.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 86.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.15320046147113817],[2018,0.10203141320825553],[2019,0.116030370417119],[2020,0.11808470322664233],[2021,0.11905462888165849],[2022,0.13663016688229762],[2023,0.16033056240133736],[2024,0.185861557337087],[2025,0.18477904357997074],[2026,0.19618273441603437]]; median 0.14491531417671788. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 266.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 91800000; owner earnings 1558000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 81900000; owner earnings 1700500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 116700000; owner earnings 3609600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 245600000; owner earnings 2354100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 197500000; owner earnings 2422100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 127200000; owner earnings 2894600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 89700000; owner earnings 2963900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 76400000; owner earnings 3502400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 94000000; owner earnings 3768600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 83500000; owner earnings 4291800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,1787200000],[2017,1993500000],[2018,2149900000],[2019,1695900000],[2020,2110000000],[2021,2189300000],[2022,2633500000],[2023,3235500000],[2024,3584200000],[2025,3933000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 266100000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CME.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.441 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If we experience system failures or capacity constraints" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); If we experience system failures or capacity constraints

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12197329373632479. Price 289.46; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.7348991103718916 → FY2025 11.911409619494325. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $100.10 per share

- 2016-11: $112.91 per share

- 2016-12: $115.35 per share

- 2017-01: $121.08 per share

- 2017-02: $121.46 per share

- 2017-03: $118.80 per share

- 2017-04: $116.19 per share

- 2017-05: $117.29 per share

- 2017-06: $125.24 per share

- 2017-07: $122.62 per share

- 2017-08: $125.80 per share

- 2017-09: $135.68 per share

- 2017-10: $137.17 per share

- 2017-11: $149.54 per share

- 2017-12: $146.05 per share

- 2018-01: $153.48 per share

- 2018-02: $166.16 per share

- 2018-03: $161.74 per share

- 2018-04: $157.68 per share

- 2018-05: $162.90 per share

- 2018-06: $163.92 per share

- 2018-07: $159.12 per share

- 2018-08: $174.73 per share

- 2018-09: $170.21 per share

- 2018-10: $183.24 per share

- 2018-11: $190.08 per share

- 2018-12: $188.12 per share

- 2019-01: $182.28 per share

- 2019-02: $181.91 per share

- 2019-03: $164.58 per share

- 2019-04: $178.90 per share

- 2019-05: $192.12 per share

- 2019-06: $194.11 per share

- 2019-07: $194.42 per share

- 2019-08: $217.29 per share

- 2019-09: $211.34 per share

- 2019-10: $205.75 per share

- 2019-11: $202.73 per share

- 2019-12: $200.72 per share

- 2020-01: $217.11 per share

- 2020-02: $198.82 per share

- 2020-03: $172.91 per share

- 2020-04: $178.21 per share

- 2020-05: $182.60 per share

- 2020-06: $162.54 per share

- 2020-07: $166.18 per share

- 2020-08: $175.87 per share

- 2020-09: $167.31 per share

- 2020-10: $150.72 per share

- 2020-11: $175.03 per share

- 2020-12: $182.05 per share

- 2021-01: $181.74 per share

- 2021-02: $199.70 per share

- 2021-03: $204.23 per share

- 2021-04: $201.99 per share

- 2021-05: $218.76 per share

- 2021-06: $212.68 per share

- 2021-07: $212.13 per share

- 2021-08: $201.72 per share

- 2021-09: $193.38 per share

- 2021-10: $220.55 per share

- 2021-11: $220.52 per share

- 2021-12: $228.46 per share

- 2022-01: $229.50 per share

- 2022-02: $236.53 per share

- 2022-03: $237.86 per share

- 2022-04: $219.34 per share

- 2022-05: $198.83 per share

- 2022-06: $204.70 per share

- 2022-07: $199.48 per share

- 2022-08: $195.61 per share

- 2022-09: $177.13 per share

- 2022-10: $173.30 per share

- 2022-11: $176.50 per share

- 2022-12: $168.16 per share

- 2023-01: $176.66 per share

- 2023-02: $185.36 per share

- 2023-03: $191.52 per share

- 2023-04: $185.77 per share

- 2023-05: $178.75 per share

- 2023-06: $185.29 per share

- 2023-07: $198.96 per share

- 2023-08: $202.68 per share

- 2023-09: $200.22 per share

- 2023-10: $213.46 per share

- 2023-11: $218.36 per share

- 2023-12: $210.60 per share

- 2024-01: $205.84 per share

- 2024-02: $220.35 per share

- 2024-03: $215.29 per share

- 2024-04: $209.64 per share

- 2024-05: $202.98 per share

- 2024-06: $196.60 per share

- 2024-07: $193.71 per share

- 2024-08: $215.74 per share

- 2024-09: $220.65 per share

- 2024-10: $225.36 per share

- 2024-11: $238.00 per share

- 2024-12: $232.23 per share

- 2025-01: $236.52 per share

- 2025-02: $253.77 per share

- 2025-03: $265.29 per share

- 2025-04: $277.08 per share

- 2025-05: $289.00 per share

- 2025-06: $275.62 per share

- 2025-07: $278.28 per share

- 2025-08: $266.51 per share

- 2025-09: $270.19 per share

- 2025-10: $265.49 per share

- 2025-11: $281.46 per share

- 2025-12: $273.08 per share

- 2026-01: $289.06 per share

- 2026-02: $319.50 per share

- 2026-03: $295.35 per share

- 2026-04: $287.82 per share

- 2026-05: $273.54 per share

- 2026-06: $220.83 per share

- 2026-07: $267.79 per share

- 2026-08: $285.50 per share

- 2026-09: $261.98 per share

- 2026-10: $278.03 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $52.93 per share, central $66.77 per share, high $77.13 per share

- FY2017: low $53.84 per share, central $65.39 per share, high $75.35 per share

- FY2018: low $125.96 per share, central $156.16 per share, high $181.58 per share

- FY2019: low $83.36 per share, central $107.61 per share, high $125.14 per share

- FY2020: low $83.14 per share, central $102.57 per share, high $118.94 per share

- FY2021: low $80.87 per share, central $93.50 per share, high $107.47 per share

- FY2022: low $108.42 per share, central $136.62 per share, high $158.37 per share

- FY2023: low $122.74 per share, central $158.37 per share, high $183.90 per share

- FY2024: low $122.45 per share, central $138.23 per share, high $159.23 per share

- FY2025: low $134.35 per share, central $151.19 per share, high $173.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:11.162Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/cme-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.