# Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CMG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:31.477Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $30.58 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $16.95 per share, central $24.07 per share, high $28.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $24.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:31.477Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.5% at the stated quote. About 8.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.17×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 17.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 20.6%

- FY2018: 22.1%

- FY2019: 9.3%

- FY2020: 6.9%

- FY2021: 13.7%

- FY2022: 17.1%

- FY2023: 20.4%

- FY2024: 21.7%

- FY2025: 22.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 20.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 59.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 0.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.6% vs 21.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.12 to 1.11 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: $38B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 31.7%

- Per-share value change: $0.99

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.11

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.28

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.02

- FY2017: $0.12

- FY2018: $0.13

- FY2019: $0.25

- FY2020: $0.25

- FY2021: $0.46

- FY2022: $0.64

- FY2023: $0.89

- FY2024: $1.11

- FY2025: $1.14

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.38×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -16.1%

- FY2017: -14.2%

- FY2018: -19.6%

- FY2019: -7.3%

- FY2020: -5.1%

- FY2021: -9.5%

- FY2022: -6.1%

- FY2023: -6.9%

- FY2024: -6.2%

- FY2025: -6.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 52% since Apr 2024 · "Chipotle's Pricing Lags Inflation: How Deep Is the Margin Squeeze?" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +4.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:31.511Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-23: Chipotle stock plunges after company reports second straight sales decline, cuts guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipotle-stock-plunges-after-company-reports-second-straight-sales-decline-cuts-guidance-202416439.html))

- 2025-10-29: Chipotle Mexican Grill cuts same-store sales outlook as rising costs bite ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipotle-mexican-grill-cuts-same-213330366.html))

- 2025-11-05: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): Assessing Valuation After Lowered Outlook and Revenue Miss in Q3 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-assessing-101135732.html))

- 2026-03-10: Chipotle Weighs Softer Sales Against Aggressive Expansion And Valuation Concerns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipotle-weighs-softer-sales-against-031322452.html))

- 2026-07-30: Chipotle shares rise on quarterly earnings beat, raised outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/chipotle-shares-rise-quarterly-earnings-155200666.html))

- 2026-09-10: CMG Margins Under Pressure: Can Pricing Offset Rising Costs? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cmg-margins-under-pressure-pricing-145600405.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-04.

- FY2017: $4.5B 

- FY2018: $4.9B 

- FY2019: $5.6B 

- FY2020: $6.0B 

- FY2021: $7.5B 

- FY2022: $8.6B 

- FY2023: $9.9B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $12B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 24.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-04.

- FY2017: 16.9% 

- FY2018: 18.7% 

- FY2019: 20.5% 

- FY2020: 17.4% 

- FY2021: 22.6% 

- FY2022: 23.9% 

- FY2023: 26.2% 

- FY2024: 26.7% 

- FY2025: 25.4% 

- FY2026: 24.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 11.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: revenue 11925601000; grossProfit 3026207000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CMG.US: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The company sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids' meals, chips, and sides. It also offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork under the Responsibly Raised brand. In addition, the company provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It operates in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25.4% to 26.7% during 2023–25; it earns 20.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.20647655356462066],[2018,0.22083524772643215],[2019,0.09339985883930944],[2020,0.06902676129882519],[2021,0.13702953827154665],[2022,0.1705218875230598],[2023,0.20378012395955572],[2024,0.2166175698443181],[2025,0.22489805669061],[2026,0.2069950681237325]]; median 0.2051283387620882. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"This increase is partially offset by a 0.5% benefit from menu price increases." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); This increase is partially offset by a 0.5% benefit from menu price increases.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 19.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 59.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2017: growth capex 53429000; upkeep 163348000; owner earnings 176253000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3031381026138562.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2018: growth capex 85411000; upkeep 201979000; owner earnings 176553000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.48376974619519353.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2019: growth capex 121134000; upkeep 212778000; owner earnings 350158000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3459409752169021.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2020: growth capex 134818000; upkeep 238534000; owner earnings 355766000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3789513331796743.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2021: growth capex 187818000; upkeep 254657000; owner earnings 652984000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28763032478590594.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2022: growth capex 192338000; upkeep 286826000; owner earnings 899101000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21392257377091117.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2023: growth capex 241337000; upkeep 319394000; owner earnings 1228737000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19641062326600403.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2024: growth capex 258573000; upkeep 335030000; owner earnings 1534110000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1685491913878405.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: growth capex 304954000; upkeep 361382000; owner earnings 1535761000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1985686574929302.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Incremental return on capital 0.5934960956406277, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 2425516000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CMG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.722 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Shortages or interruptions in the supply of ingredients could adversely affect our operating results." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); Shortages or interruptions in the supply of ingredients could adversely affect our operating results.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12430724515648106. Price 30.58; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.2956173093616623 → FY2025 1.143857216061778. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $7.22 per share

- 2016-11: $7.93 per share

- 2016-12: $7.55 per share

- 2017-01: $8.43 per share

- 2017-02: $8.37 per share

- 2017-03: $8.91 per share

- 2017-04: $9.49 per share

- 2017-05: $9.55 per share

- 2017-06: $8.32 per share

- 2017-07: $6.88 per share

- 2017-08: $6.33 per share

- 2017-09: $6.16 per share

- 2017-10: $5.44 per share

- 2017-11: $6.09 per share

- 2017-12: $5.78 per share

- 2018-01: $6.50 per share

- 2018-02: $6.37 per share

- 2018-03: $6.46 per share

- 2018-04: $8.47 per share

- 2018-05: $8.60 per share

- 2018-06: $8.63 per share

- 2018-07: $8.67 per share

- 2018-08: $9.50 per share

- 2018-09: $9.09 per share

- 2018-10: $9.21 per share

- 2018-11: $9.46 per share

- 2018-12: $8.64 per share

- 2019-01: $10.59 per share

- 2019-02: $12.15 per share

- 2019-03: $14.21 per share

- 2019-04: $13.76 per share

- 2019-05: $13.20 per share

- 2019-06: $14.66 per share

- 2019-07: $15.91 per share

- 2019-08: $16.77 per share

- 2019-09: $16.81 per share

- 2019-10: $15.56 per share

- 2019-11: $16.28 per share

- 2019-12: $16.74 per share

- 2020-01: $17.34 per share

- 2020-02: $15.47 per share

- 2020-03: $13.09 per share

- 2020-04: $17.57 per share

- 2020-05: $20.08 per share

- 2020-06: $21.05 per share

- 2020-07: $23.10 per share

- 2020-08: $26.21 per share

- 2020-09: $24.87 per share

- 2020-10: $24.03 per share

- 2020-11: $25.79 per share

- 2020-12: $27.73 per share

- 2021-01: $29.60 per share

- 2021-02: $28.84 per share

- 2021-03: $28.42 per share

- 2021-04: $29.84 per share

- 2021-05: $27.44 per share

- 2021-06: $31.01 per share

- 2021-07: $37.27 per share

- 2021-08: $38.07 per share

- 2021-09: $36.35 per share

- 2021-10: $35.58 per share

- 2021-11: $32.87 per share

- 2021-12: $34.97 per share

- 2022-01: $29.71 per share

- 2022-02: $30.47 per share

- 2022-03: $31.64 per share

- 2022-04: $29.11 per share

- 2022-05: $28.05 per share

- 2022-06: $26.15 per share

- 2022-07: $31.28 per share

- 2022-08: $31.94 per share

- 2022-09: $30.06 per share

- 2022-10: $29.97 per share

- 2022-11: $32.54 per share

- 2022-12: $27.75 per share

- 2023-01: $32.93 per share

- 2023-02: $29.82 per share

- 2023-03: $34.17 per share

- 2023-04: $41.35 per share

- 2023-05: $41.53 per share

- 2023-06: $42.78 per share

- 2023-07: $39.25 per share

- 2023-08: $38.53 per share

- 2023-09: $36.64 per share

- 2023-10: $38.84 per share

- 2023-11: $44.05 per share

- 2023-12: $45.74 per share

- 2024-01: $48.18 per share

- 2024-02: $53.78 per share

- 2024-03: $58.14 per share

- 2024-04: $63.19 per share

- 2024-05: $62.59 per share

- 2024-06: $62.65 per share

- 2024-07: $54.32 per share

- 2024-08: $56.08 per share

- 2024-09: $57.62 per share

- 2024-10: $55.77 per share

- 2024-11: $61.52 per share

- 2024-12: $60.30 per share

- 2025-01: $58.35 per share

- 2025-02: $53.97 per share

- 2025-03: $50.21 per share

- 2025-04: $50.52 per share

- 2025-05: $50.08 per share

- 2025-06: $56.15 per share

- 2025-07: $42.88 per share

- 2025-08: $42.14 per share

- 2025-09: $39.19 per share

- 2025-10: $31.69 per share

- 2025-11: $34.52 per share

- 2025-12: $37.00 per share

- 2026-01: $38.87 per share

- 2026-02: $37.22 per share

- 2026-03: $32.01 per share

- 2026-04: $33.99 per share

- 2026-05: $31.86 per share

- 2026-06: $34.00 per share

- 2026-07: $37.22 per share

- 2026-08: $38.03 per share

- 2026-09: $31.95 per share

- 2026-10: $30.35 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $3.15 per share, central $3.55 per share, high $4.09 per share

- FY2017: low $4.22 per share, central $5.36 per share, high $6.22 per share

- FY2018: low $2.06 per share, central $2.49 per share, high $2.84 per share

- FY2019: low $2.63 per share, central $3.50 per share, high $4.01 per share

- FY2020: low $2.59 per share, central $3.12 per share, high $3.54 per share

- FY2021: low $4.93 per share, central $6.76 per share, high $7.83 per share

- FY2022: low $5.76 per share, central $8.01 per share, high $9.32 per share

- FY2023: low $9.17 per share, central $12.76 per share, high $14.86 per share

- FY2024: low $12.50 per share, central $17.49 per share, high $20.39 per share

- FY2025: low $15.63 per share, central $22.07 per share, high $25.82 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:11.411Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.