# Capricorn Metals (CMM.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CMM.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 13.81 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 7.48 per share, central AUD 10.23 per share, high AUD 11.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 10.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 1.49×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -16.53×

- FY2018: -18.22×

- FY2019: -22.24×

- FY2020: -105.21×

- FY2021: -77.40×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.42×

- FY2024: 0.39×

- FY2025: 0.51×

- FY2026: 0.59×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -19.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 49.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1511.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -15.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -10.1%

- FY2018: -8.8%

- FY2019: -19.2%

- FY2020: -20.3%

- FY2021: -2.8%

- FY2022: 33.2%

- FY2023: 36.0%

- FY2024: 36.0%

- FY2025: 39.9%

- FY2026: 33.3%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.95×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 585M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 613M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 53.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 104.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 382.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.90×

- FY2023: -0.87×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -10.1% vs 36.0%

- Per-share earnings: -0.02 to 0.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 17.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.0%

- Market cap gain: AUD 5.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 577M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 17.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.36

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.02

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.34

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.81

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 561M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -10.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 36.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD -0.02

- FY2018: AUD -0.02

- FY2019: AUD -0.07

- FY2020: AUD -0.05

- FY2021: AUD -0.01

- FY2022: AUD 0.24

- FY2023: AUD 0.01

- FY2024: AUD 0.22

- FY2025: AUD 0.34

- FY2026: AUD 0.62

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.17×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.67×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.8%

- FY2018: -1.2%

- FY2019: -77.4%

- FY2020: -11.0%

- FY2021: 4.7%

- FY2022: -9.3%

- FY2023: -25.0%

- FY2024: -11.4%

- FY2025: -10.5%

- FY2026: -10.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.7% a year for ten years · sales +48.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.602Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +48.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 189K 

- FY2018: AUD 186K 

- FY2019: AUD 160K 

- FY2020: AUD 122K 

- FY2021: AUD 110K 

- FY2022: AUD 287M 

- FY2023: AUD 321M 

- FY2024: AUD 360M 

- FY2025: AUD 518M 

- FY2026: AUD 769M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 59.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 61.0% 

- FY2018: 63.3% 

- FY2019: 65.6% 

- FY2022: 43.0% 

- FY2023: 42.4% 

- FY2024: 43.6% 

- FY2025: 54.8% 

- FY2026: 59.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are AUD 769.3 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2026: revenue 769346000; grossProfit 456013000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.6% to 59.3% during 2024–26; it earns 15.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 54.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 59.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.10060793250477236],[2018,-0.08817926927407516],[2019,-0.1917435202253128],[2020,-0.20281691267650706],[2021,-0.028081999039726115],[2022,0.3320330665610032],[2023,0.36036617508498564],[2024,0.359943564782996],[2025,0.39906738205615216],[2026,0.3329321685012458]]; median 0.15197553376063852. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 62.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 53.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2022: growth capex 45164000; upkeep 32342000; owner earnings 80396000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5617692422508582.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2024: growth capex 36115000; upkeep 29525000; owner earnings 80447600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4489257603707258.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2025: growth capex 70904000; upkeep 26851000; owner earnings 150277000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.471822035308131.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2026: growth capex 174632000; upkeep 31056000; owner earnings 278135000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6278677620579934.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); Incremental return on capital 0.5384376381001523, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,2222620],[2021,104350000],[2022,916000],[2023,51509000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,22836000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 257000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 10% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CMM.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 9.978 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:56.173Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1404848093934835. Price 13.81; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.05453812376758456 → FY2026 0.6088932322623327. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-11: AUD 0.47 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 0.51 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 0.48 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 0.58 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 0.63 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 0.53 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 0.43 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 0.39 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 0.41 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 0.38 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 0.42 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 0.26 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 0.29 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 0.33 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 0.38 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 0.36 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 0.34 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 0.39 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 0.32 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 0.32 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 0.31 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 0.31 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 0.39 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 0.32 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 0.26 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 0.33 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 0.34 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 0.34 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 0.35 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 0.41 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 0.44 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 0.44 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 0.82 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 1.25 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 1.20 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 1.10 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 1.00 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 1.23 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 1.24 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 1.23 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 1.04 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 1.37 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 1.56 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 1.79 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 1.96 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 2.00 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 1.84 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 1.74 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 1.64 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 1.78 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 1.70 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 1.50 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 1.41 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 1.70 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 1.94 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 1.90 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 2.18 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 2.47 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 2.13 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 2.57 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 3.05 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 3.40 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 3.16 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 3.79 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 4.09 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 4.15 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 3.76 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 3.13 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 3.90 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 3.65 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 3.00 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 3.39 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 4.20 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 4.60 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 4.53 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 3.79 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 4.76 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 4.43 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 4.32 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 4.03 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 4.45 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 4.56 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 4.12 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 4.73 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 4.80 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 4.71 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 4.59 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 4.75 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 5.15 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 5.01 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 4.78 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 4.78 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 5.38 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 5.99 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 5.75 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 6.31 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 6.49 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 6.28 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 7.72 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 7.58 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 8.08 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 9.25 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 9.76 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 9.55 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 8.97 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 10.23 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 13.23 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 12.85 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 14.65 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 14.38 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 14.79 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 14.72 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 11.00 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 11.33 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 14.11 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 12.64 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 12.75 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 16.48 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 14.90 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 14.46 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2025: low AUD 4.39 per share, central AUD 5.93 per share, high AUD 6.83 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 7.49 per share, central AUD 10.24 per share, high AUD 11.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:31.330Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.