# Centene (CNC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CNC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:32.795Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $70.51 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $65.09 per share, central $74.07 per share, high $86.01 per share. Buy at or below the central value $74.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:32.795Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.4% at the stated quote. About 10.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 2.35×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: -0.04×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 12.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 58.5%

- FY2017: 38.9%

- FY2018: 21.1%

- FY2019: 18.1%

- FY2020: 15.3%

- FY2021: 8.7%

- FY2022: 7.0%

- FY2023: 29.3%

- FY2024: 21.2%

- FY2025: -60.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 2.44×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -6.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.42×

- FY2022: 1.46×

- FY2023: 1.18×

- FY2024: 1.18×

- FY2025: 0.92×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 38.9% vs 21.2%

- Per-share earnings: 1.71 to 4.95 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $6.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 14.2%

- Per-share value change: $3.24

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.71

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.21

- Average buyback yield: 2.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $27B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 38.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.71

- FY2017: $2.34

- FY2018: $2.26

- FY2019: $3.14

- FY2020: $3.12

- FY2021: $2.28

- FY2022: $2.07

- FY2023: $4.95

- FY2024: $6.31

- FY2025: -$13.53

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -15.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.77×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.77×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.4%

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -1.1%

- FY2019: -0.4%

- FY2020: -5.4%

- FY2021: -3.6%

- FY2022: -6.6%

- FY2023: -6.3%

- FY2024: 3.8%

- FY2025: -15.1%

## Holders

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 24% since Jul 2022 · "Centene Narrows Medicare Advantage Footprint as Costs Remain Elevated" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales -0.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:31.878Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-02: Centene Withdraws 2025 Earnings Outlook Amid Marketplace Risk Adjustment Revenue Hit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/centene-withdraws-2025-earnings-outlook-103227621.html))

- 2025-08-25: Centene (CNC) Valuation in Focus After Class Action Lawsuits and Pulled 2025 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/centene-cnc-valuation-focus-class-101401905.html))

- 2025-09-11: Centene shares rise after reaffirmed profit forecast, steady Medicare ratings ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/centene-shares-rise-reaffirmed-profit-143104243.html))

- 2025-11-18: Centene (CNC): Assessing Valuation After Upbeat Guidance and Strong Medicare Growth Spur Investor Interest ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/centene-cnc-assessing-valuation-upbeat-231811736.html))

- 2026-03-13: Centene Confronts ACA Membership Slide And Tests AI Driven Cost Controls ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/centene-confronts-aca-membership-slide-191145023.html))

- 2026-04-28: Centene Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Rising Premiums, 2026 View Up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/centene-q1-earnings-beat-estimates-155700676.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -0.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1071739/000107173926000049/cnc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2017: $48B 

- FY2018: $60B 

- FY2019: $75B 

- FY2020: $111B 

- FY2021: $126B 

- FY2022: $145B 

- FY2023: $154B 

- FY2024: $163B 

- FY2025: $195B 

- FY2026: $194B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 12.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1071739/000107173926000049/cnc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: 13.7% 

- FY2017: 12.0% 

- FY2018: 14.0% 

- FY2019: 11.8% 

- FY2020: 13.7% 

- FY2021: 11.3% 

- FY2022: 11.5% 

- FY2023: 20.5% 

- FY2024: 10.3% 

- FY2025: 12.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in healthcare plans; annual sales are USD 194.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1071739/000107173926000049/cnc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 194777000000; grossProfit 23833439000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CNC.US: Centene Corporation operates as a managed care company that provides programs and services to under-insured families, and commercial organizations in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other. The Medicaid segment offers the temporary assistance for needy families; medicaid expansion; aged, blind, or disabled; and children's health insurance programs, as well as long-term services and supports; foster care; and medicare-medicaid plans. This segment also provides healthcare products and services. The Medicare segment offers special needs and medicare supplement, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides health insurance marketplace product for individual and commercial group. The Other segment operates clinical healthcare and pharmacies, as well as offers vision and dental, behavioral health, and centralized services. It provides services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, behavioral health practitioners, and ancillary providers. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.3% to 20.5% during 2023–25; it earns 19.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1071739/000107173926000049/cnc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 12.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5851389878831076],[2017,0.38885477149776954],[2018,0.2106135697333519],[2019,0.1814263530853925],[2020,0.15341553070914382],[2021,0.08747869944113147],[2022,0.07031929738159731],[2023,0.29278102712806203],[2024,0.21186317072228014],[2025,-0.6014306235635055]]; median 0.19601996140937222. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 475 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 28000000; upkeep 278000000; owner earnings 562000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0498220640569395.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 61000000; upkeep 361000000; owner earnings 828000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07367149758454106.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 180000000; upkeep 495000000; owner earnings 900000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 87000000; upkeep 643000000; owner earnings 1321000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06585919757759273.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 869000000; owner earnings 2198000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 910000000; owner earnings 1913000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1004000000; owner earnings 1751000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 799000000; owner earnings 3196000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 644000000; owner earnings 3902000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,66000000],[2018,6077000000],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,35000000],[2022,0],[2023,88000000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1071739/000107173926000049/cnc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 475000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CNC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.391 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Risk-adjustment payment systems make our revenue and results of operations more difficult to estimate" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1071739/000107173926000049/cnc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); Risk-adjustment payment systems make our revenue and results of operations more difficult to estimate

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.00874651758277517. Price 70.51; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.4423155055011132 → FY2025 -12.502129316428588. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $31.24 per share

- 2016-11: $28.82 per share

- 2016-12: $28.26 per share

- 2017-01: $31.64 per share

- 2017-02: $35.25 per share

- 2017-03: $35.63 per share

- 2017-04: $37.20 per share

- 2017-05: $36.32 per share

- 2017-06: $39.94 per share

- 2017-07: $39.71 per share

- 2017-08: $44.43 per share

- 2017-09: $48.39 per share

- 2017-10: $46.84 per share

- 2017-11: $51.05 per share

- 2017-12: $50.44 per share

- 2018-01: $53.62 per share

- 2018-02: $50.71 per share

- 2018-03: $53.44 per share

- 2018-04: $54.29 per share

- 2018-05: $58.58 per share

- 2018-06: $61.61 per share

- 2018-07: $65.17 per share

- 2018-08: $73.24 per share

- 2018-09: $72.39 per share

- 2018-10: $65.16 per share

- 2018-11: $71.13 per share

- 2018-12: $57.65 per share

- 2019-01: $65.29 per share

- 2019-02: $60.89 per share

- 2019-03: $53.10 per share

- 2019-04: $51.56 per share

- 2019-05: $57.75 per share

- 2019-06: $52.44 per share

- 2019-07: $52.09 per share

- 2019-08: $46.62 per share

- 2019-09: $43.26 per share

- 2019-10: $53.08 per share

- 2019-11: $60.47 per share

- 2019-12: $62.87 per share

- 2020-01: $62.81 per share

- 2020-02: $53.02 per share

- 2020-03: $59.41 per share

- 2020-04: $66.58 per share

- 2020-05: $66.25 per share

- 2020-06: $63.55 per share

- 2020-07: $65.25 per share

- 2020-08: $61.32 per share

- 2020-09: $58.33 per share

- 2020-10: $59.10 per share

- 2020-11: $61.65 per share

- 2020-12: $60.03 per share

- 2021-01: $60.30 per share

- 2021-02: $58.54 per share

- 2021-03: $63.91 per share

- 2021-04: $61.74 per share

- 2021-05: $73.60 per share

- 2021-06: $72.93 per share

- 2021-07: $68.61 per share

- 2021-08: $62.98 per share

- 2021-09: $62.31 per share

- 2021-10: $71.24 per share

- 2021-11: $71.41 per share

- 2021-12: $82.40 per share

- 2022-01: $77.76 per share

- 2022-02: $82.62 per share

- 2022-03: $84.19 per share

- 2022-04: $80.55 per share

- 2022-05: $81.44 per share

- 2022-06: $84.61 per share

- 2022-07: $92.97 per share

- 2022-08: $89.74 per share

- 2022-09: $77.81 per share

- 2022-10: $85.13 per share

- 2022-11: $87.05 per share

- 2022-12: $82.01 per share

- 2023-01: $76.24 per share

- 2023-02: $68.40 per share

- 2023-03: $63.21 per share

- 2023-04: $68.93 per share

- 2023-05: $62.41 per share

- 2023-06: $67.45 per share

- 2023-07: $68.09 per share

- 2023-08: $61.65 per share

- 2023-09: $68.88 per share

- 2023-10: $68.98 per share

- 2023-11: $73.68 per share

- 2023-12: $74.21 per share

- 2024-01: $75.31 per share

- 2024-02: $78.43 per share

- 2024-03: $78.48 per share

- 2024-04: $73.06 per share

- 2024-05: $71.59 per share

- 2024-06: $66.30 per share

- 2024-07: $76.92 per share

- 2024-08: $78.83 per share

- 2024-09: $75.28 per share

- 2024-10: $62.26 per share

- 2024-11: $60.00 per share

- 2024-12: $60.58 per share

- 2025-01: $64.03 per share

- 2025-02: $58.16 per share

- 2025-03: $60.71 per share

- 2025-04: $59.85 per share

- 2025-05: $56.44 per share

- 2025-06: $54.28 per share

- 2025-07: $26.07 per share

- 2025-08: $29.04 per share

- 2025-09: $35.68 per share

- 2025-10: $35.37 per share

- 2025-11: $39.34 per share

- 2025-12: $41.15 per share

- 2026-01: $43.32 per share

- 2026-02: $44.88 per share

- 2026-03: $32.74 per share

- 2026-04: $53.69 per share

- 2026-05: $59.60 per share

- 2026-06: $64.19 per share

- 2026-07: $62.22 per share

- 2026-08: $64.34 per share

- 2026-09: $62.12 per share

- 2026-10: $70.51 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $20.57 per share, central $23.41 per share, high $27.18 per share

- FY2017: low $23.34 per share, central $26.56 per share, high $30.84 per share

- FY2018: low $31.99 per share, central $45.70 per share, high $53.68 per share

- FY2019: low $37.65 per share, central $53.78 per share, high $63.17 per share

- FY2020: low $44.64 per share, central $63.77 per share, high $74.91 per share

- FY2021: low $49.64 per share, central $70.91 per share, high $83.29 per share

- FY2022: low $51.27 per share, central $73.24 per share, high $86.03 per share

- FY2023: low $54.59 per share, central $62.12 per share, high $72.14 per share

- FY2024: low $83.73 per share, central $119.61 per share, high $140.51 per share

- FY2025: low $65.56 per share, central $74.60 per share, high $86.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:12.775Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1071739/000107173926000049/cnc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.