# Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CNQ.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:40.176Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: CAD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 73.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 65.82 per share, central CAD 74.78 per share, high CAD 86.71 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 74.78 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:40.176Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.1% at the stated quote. About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.75×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.11×

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: -0.03×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.30×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 14.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.4%

- FY2017: 3.7%

- FY2018: 6.9%

- FY2019: 9.8%

- FY2020: -0.6%

- FY2021: 14.1%

- FY2022: 23.8%

- FY2023: 16.7%

- FY2024: 12.4%

- FY2025: 10.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.20×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CAD 53B

- Net income, five-year total: CAD 44B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.12×

- FY2022: 1.18×

- FY2023: 1.18×

- FY2024: 1.21×

- FY2025: 1.29×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.7% vs 12.4%

- Per-share earnings: -0.09 to 3.74 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Market cap gain: CAD 51B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CAD 11B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: CAD 3.83

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CAD -0.09

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CAD 3.74

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.36

- Average buyback yield: 2.9%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CAD 0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CAD 54B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CAD -0.09

- FY2017: CAD 0.98

- FY2018: CAD 1.08

- FY2019: CAD 2.29

- FY2020: CAD -0.18

- FY2021: CAD 3.25

- FY2022: CAD 4.88

- FY2023: CAD 3.74

- FY2024: CAD 2.85

- FY2025: CAD 5.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.40×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.2%

- FY2017: -6.6%

- FY2018: -10.5%

- FY2019: -4.4%

- FY2020: -6.8%

- FY2021: -8.9%

- FY2022: -11.1%

- FY2023: -5.4%

- FY2024: -8.5%

- FY2025: -4.7%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.7% a year for ten years · "CNQ Raises 2026 Production Outlook While Holding Core Capital Flat" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -6.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.115Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-28: Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) Signs 15-Year Gas Deal with Cheniere Marketing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-natural-resources-tsx-cnq-173338470.html))

- 2025-11-10: Canadian Natural Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Expenses Increase Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-natural-q3-earnings-beat-170600658.html))

- 2026-03-17: Canadian Natural Resources Links Record Output To Bigger Cash Returns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-natural-resources-links-record-031700256.html))

- 2026-08-20: CNQ Raises 2026 Production Outlook While Holding Core Capital Flat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/cnq-raises-2026-production-outlook-164700615.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -6.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: CAD 12B 

- FY2017: CAD 18B 

- FY2018: CAD 22B 

- FY2019: CAD 24B 

- FY2020: CAD 17B 

- FY2021: CAD 33B 

- FY2022: CAD 50B 

- FY2023: CAD 41B 

- FY2024: CAD 42B 

- FY2025: CAD 39B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 23.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2017: 16.1% 

- FY2018: 23.4% 

- FY2019: 26.0% 

- FY2021: 32.2% 

- FY2022: 32.8% 

- FY2023: 28.8% 

- FY2024: 26.3% 

- FY2025: 23.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are CAD 38.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: revenue 38762000000; grossProfit 9021000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23.3% to 28.8% during 2023–25; it earns 10.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 23.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.023976318162403303],[2017,0.036701194300683034],[2018,0.06862324373063677],[2019,0.09784263293265445],[2020,-0.006409882395842829],[2021,0.14149197648433373],[2022,0.23795133998211013],[2023,0.1668866351699789],[2024,0.12361255649014882],[2025,0.1059976739831622]]; median 0.10192015345790834. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CAD 1.4 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3803000000; owner earnings 851000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4574000000; owner earnings 3009000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4175000000; owner earnings 3577000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3535000000; owner earnings 7018600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2555000000; owner earnings 2680200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 4492000000; owner earnings 8579200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5103000000; owner earnings 12879000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 4909000000; owner earnings 9737000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 5383000000; owner earnings 7404000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 6676000000; owner earnings 13908000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,758000000],[2017,1252000000],[2018,1562000000],[2019,1743000000],[2020,1950000000],[2021,2170000000],[2022,4926000000],[2023,3891000000],[2024,4429000000],[2025,4871000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 1449000000 CAD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CNQ.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.168 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 58.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.002489572110357108. Price 73.75; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.06486814407671618 → FY2025 6.629467669190135. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-11: CAD 22.20 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 20.95 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 19.27 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 18.65 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 21.32 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 21.29 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 19.07 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 18.33 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 18.67 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 18.84 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 20.47 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 22.05 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 21.43 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 22.00 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 20.56 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 19.47 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 19.83 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 22.68 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 21.98 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 23.24 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 23.41 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 21.82 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 20.67 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 17.69 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 16.35 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 16.13 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 17.27 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 18.31 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 17.97 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 19.70 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 17.88 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 17.29 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 16.37 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 15.58 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 17.26 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 16.26 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 18.17 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 20.57 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 18.23 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 16.92 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 9.43 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 11.42 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 12.32 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 11.53 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 11.57 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 12.60 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 10.45 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 10.38 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 14.51 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 14.98 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 14.15 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 17.00 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 19.03 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 18.27 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 20.74 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 22.04 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 20.16 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 20.45 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 22.68 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 25.76 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 25.58 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 26.18 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 31.67 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 34.68 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 37.91 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 38.94 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 40.99 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 33.87 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 34.63 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 36.00 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 32.15 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 40.85 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 40.15 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 37.60 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 40.83 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 38.56 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 37.40 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 41.28 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 36.56 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 37.24 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 40.10 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 43.71 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 43.92 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 44.03 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 45.31 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 43.40 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 43.02 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 47.27 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 51.67 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 52.16 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 52.35 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 48.73 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 49.02 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 48.78 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 44.91 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 47.35 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 47.52 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 44.38 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 44.15 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 40.85 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 44.28 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 39.56 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 41.67 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 42.80 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 43.86 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 43.49 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 44.50 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 44.87 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 47.29 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 46.49 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 50.63 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 59.67 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 67.86 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 64.84 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 62.70 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 56.12 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 66.78 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 69.49 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 66.93 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 74.19 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2016: low CAD 7.23 per share, central CAD 8.19 per share, high CAD 9.46 per share

- FY2017: low CAD 10.68 per share, central CAD 12.11 per share, high CAD 14.02 per share

- FY2018: low CAD 16.30 per share, central CAD 18.53 per share, high CAD 21.51 per share

- FY2019: low CAD 22.12 per share, central CAD 30.94 per share, high CAD 36.30 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 12.55 per share, central CAD 14.27 per share, high CAD 16.56 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 30.34 per share, central CAD 42.07 per share, high CAD 49.32 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 63.06 per share, central CAD 71.72 per share, high CAD 83.26 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 52.92 per share, central CAD 60.18 per share, high CAD 69.84 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 50.54 per share, central CAD 57.51 per share, high CAD 66.79 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 52.51 per share, central CAD 59.75 per share, high CAD 69.39 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:25.579Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.