# Core Natural Resources (CNR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CNR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:34.846Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $89.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $153.08 per share, central $173.11 per share, high $199.78 per share. Buy at or below the central value $173.11 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:34.846Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.7% at the stated quote. About 17.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.40×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.01×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: -0.13×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.35×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: -0.05×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 79.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -5.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 79.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 79.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): -0.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 6

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.4%

- FY2017: 8.6%

- FY2018: 11.3%

- FY2019: 7.4%

- FY2020: -7.6%

- FY2021: 7.2%

- FY2022: 42.1%

- FY2023: 40.5%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: -5.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.47×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 3.69×

- FY2022: 1.12×

- FY2023: 1.11×

- FY2024: 1.16×

- FY2025: -1.20×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.6% vs 40.5%

- Per-share earnings: 2.42 to 9.66 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 13.9%

- Market cap gain: $3.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $862M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 13.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 18.9%

- Per-share value change: $7.24

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.66

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 5.6%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 40.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.58

- FY2017: $2.42

- FY2018: $5.58

- FY2019: $2.92

- FY2020: -$0.37

- FY2021: $0.96

- FY2022: $13.04

- FY2023: $21.09

- FY2024: $9.66

- FY2025: -$2.99

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.28×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.80×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -27.4%

- FY2017: -6.7%

- FY2018: -9.4%

- FY2019: -6.3%

- FY2020: -5.5%

- FY2021: -10.5%

- FY2022: -6.8%

- FY2023: -7.6%

- FY2024: -6.6%

- FY2025: -7.5%

## Holders

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 32% since Nov 2024 · "Core Natural Resources drops after delaying restart of West Virginia coal mine" (seekingalpha.com, Jun 2025) · sales +93.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:32.279Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-30: Core Natural Resources drops after delaying restart of West Virginia coal mine ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4463640-core-natural-resources-drops-after-delaying-restart-of-west-virginia-coal-mine?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-03-24: Core Natural Earnings Outlook Improving Into 2026-2027 on Rising Coal Prices, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/core-natural-earnings-outlook-improving-190648063.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +93.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883902/000088390226000005/cnr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-12.

- FY2016: $1.1B 

- FY2017: $1.3B 

- FY2018: $1.5B 

- FY2019: $1.4B 

- FY2020: $879M 

- FY2021: $1.3B 

- FY2022: $2.3B 

- FY2023: $2.5B 

- FY2024: $2.1B 

- FY2025: $4.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 76.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883902/000088390226000005/cnr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-12.

- FY2016: 80.4% 

- FY2017: 81.4% 

- FY2018: 83.4% 

- FY2019: 83.5% 

- FY2020: 71.5% 

- FY2021: 74.0% 

- FY2022: 82.0% 

- FY2023: 78.6% 

- FY2024: 76.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in thermal coal; annual sales are USD 4.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883902/000088390226000005/cnr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: revenue 4164775000; grossProfit -1109000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

It earns 8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 78.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883902/000088390226000005/cnr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 0%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.013961718451059174],[2017,0.08640489327489989],[2018,0.11262142281709189],[2019,0.07397751198908999],[2020,-0.07635085674098915],[2021,0.07166085308798228],[2022,0.4211070585264528],[2023,0.4052237066960969],[2024,1.0635065110627953],[2025,-0.05765605885493758]]; median 0.08019120263199495. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 10 years; bought back USD 224.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 53600000; owner earnings 166018000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 81413000; owner earnings 158218000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 145749000; owner earnings 208491000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 169739000; owner earnings 113359000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 86004000; owner earnings 115001000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 132752000; owner earnings 125941000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 171506000; owner earnings 522351000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 167791000; owner earnings 729418000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 177988000; owner earnings 331943000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883902/000088390226000005/cnr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 284581000; owner earnings 183270000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,270969000],[2017,581502000],[2018,18234000],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,71486000],[2023,75474000],[2024,15860000],[2025,26264000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883902/000088390226000005/cnr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 224264000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CNR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.537 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.1% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.1258778069736694. Price 89; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.870409781621504 → FY2025 3.573489841282221. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2017-11: $22.00 per share

- 2017-12: $39.51 per share

- 2018-01: $32.43 per share

- 2018-02: $31.69 per share

- 2018-03: $28.97 per share

- 2018-04: $31.45 per share

- 2018-05: $44.06 per share

- 2018-06: $38.35 per share

- 2018-07: $41.63 per share

- 2018-08: $42.90 per share

- 2018-09: $40.81 per share

- 2018-10: $39.84 per share

- 2018-11: $34.36 per share

- 2018-12: $31.71 per share

- 2019-01: $35.53 per share

- 2019-02: $37.95 per share

- 2019-03: $34.22 per share

- 2019-04: $33.90 per share

- 2019-05: $26.22 per share

- 2019-06: $26.61 per share

- 2019-07: $21.49 per share

- 2019-08: $16.76 per share

- 2019-09: $15.63 per share

- 2019-10: $13.23 per share

- 2019-11: $12.76 per share

- 2019-12: $14.51 per share

- 2020-01: $8.13 per share

- 2020-02: $5.69 per share

- 2020-03: $3.69 per share

- 2020-04: $7.59 per share

- 2020-05: $6.81 per share

- 2020-06: $5.07 per share

- 2020-07: $5.88 per share

- 2020-08: $5.17 per share

- 2020-09: $4.43 per share

- 2020-10: $3.79 per share

- 2020-11: $5.29 per share

- 2020-12: $7.21 per share

- 2021-01: $8.12 per share

- 2021-02: $10.81 per share

- 2021-03: $9.72 per share

- 2021-04: $8.78 per share

- 2021-05: $15.34 per share

- 2021-06: $18.47 per share

- 2021-07: $21.01 per share

- 2021-08: $22.83 per share

- 2021-09: $26.02 per share

- 2021-10: $27.51 per share

- 2021-11: $21.95 per share

- 2021-12: $22.71 per share

- 2022-01: $21.74 per share

- 2022-02: $30.74 per share

- 2022-03: $37.63 per share

- 2022-04: $47.55 per share

- 2022-05: $51.56 per share

- 2022-06: $49.38 per share

- 2022-07: $61.32 per share

- 2022-08: $71.78 per share

- 2022-09: $64.32 per share

- 2022-10: $63.02 per share

- 2022-11: $77.45 per share

- 2022-12: $65.00 per share

- 2023-01: $57.83 per share

- 2023-02: $54.73 per share

- 2023-03: $58.27 per share

- 2023-04: $59.34 per share

- 2023-05: $53.96 per share

- 2023-06: $67.81 per share

- 2023-07: $74.52 per share

- 2023-08: $86.04 per share

- 2023-09: $104.91 per share

- 2023-10: $91.89 per share

- 2023-11: $106.67 per share

- 2023-12: $100.53 per share

- 2024-01: $94.60 per share

- 2024-02: $85.82 per share

- 2024-03: $83.76 per share

- 2024-04: $82.76 per share

- 2024-05: $103.67 per share

- 2024-06: $102.03 per share

- 2024-07: $99.81 per share

- 2024-08: $102.28 per share

- 2024-09: $104.65 per share

- 2024-10: $110.92 per share

- 2024-11: $130.70 per share

- 2024-12: $106.68 per share

- 2025-01: $90.34 per share

- 2025-02: $74.25 per share

- 2025-03: $77.10 per share

- 2025-04: $72.21 per share

- 2025-05: $69.30 per share

- 2025-06: $69.74 per share

- 2025-07: $73.81 per share

- 2025-08: $74.26 per share

- 2025-09: $83.48 per share

- 2025-10: $79.00 per share

- 2025-11: $80.00 per share

- 2025-12: $88.51 per share

- 2026-01: $95.38 per share

- 2026-02: $82.08 per share

- 2026-03: $104.73 per share

- 2026-04: $89.74 per share

- 2026-05: $88.44 per share

- 2026-06: $80.02 per share

- 2026-07: $79.84 per share

- 2026-08: $102.30 per share

- 2026-09: $85.84 per share

- 2026-10: $89.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $24.37 per share, central $27.63 per share, high $31.98 per share

- FY2017: low $74.31 per share, central $83.93 per share, high $96.73 per share

- FY2018: low $90.57 per share, central $102.02 per share, high $117.27 per share

- FY2019: low $83.69 per share, central $94.95 per share, high $109.94 per share

- FY2020: low $48.32 per share, central $54.81 per share, high $63.45 per share

- FY2021: low $49.93 per share, central $56.33 per share, high $64.85 per share

- FY2022: low $97.35 per share, central $109.90 per share, high $126.60 per share

- FY2023: low $122.62 per share, central $138.50 per share, high $159.65 per share

- FY2024: low $136.51 per share, central $153.39 per share, high $175.86 per share

- FY2025: low $143.93 per share, central $162.83 per share, high $188.00 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:14.750Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883902/000088390226000005/cnr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.