# Capital One Financial (COF.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/COF

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:36.279Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $198.86 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $272.31 per share, central $309.86 per share, high $359.84 per share. Buy at or below the central value $309.86 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:36.279Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.1% at the stated quote. About 14.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.22×

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.26×

- FY2019: 0.24×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.52×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 12.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 73.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 61.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.4%

- FY2017: 7.0%

- FY2018: 13.3%

- FY2019: 42.2%

- FY2020: 2.5%

- FY2021: 11.0%

- FY2022: 6.9%

- FY2023: 4.5%

- FY2024: 10.7%

- FY2025: 2.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.41×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $45B

- Net income, five-year total: $32B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 15.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -36.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.22×

- FY2022: 1.31×

- FY2023: 1.46×

- FY2024: 1.43×

- FY2025: 2.50×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.0% vs 4.5%

- Per-share earnings: 7.36 to 12.38 (three-year endpoint medians)

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.4%

- Market cap gain: $110B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $35B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.7%

- Per-share value change: $5.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $7.36

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.38

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.76

- Average buyback yield: 6.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $30B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $52B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $7.36

- FY2017: $4.06

- FY2018: $12.45

- FY2019: $11.80

- FY2020: $5.91

- FY2021: $27.89

- FY2022: $18.72

- FY2023: $12.75

- FY2024: $12.38

- FY2025: $4.53

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 11.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.40×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.3%

- FY2017: -3.3%

- FY2018: -1.9%

- FY2019: -2.8%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: 0.0%

- FY2022: -1.4%

- FY2023: -3.3%

- FY2024: -2.7%

- FY2025: -3.8%

## Holders

- [Gavin Abrams](https://gigainvestors.com/ABI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Leon Cooperman](https://gigainvestors.com/oa): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Daniel Loeb](https://gigainvestors.com/tp): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.7% a year for ten years · sales +36.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:32.554Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-25: Relatively High Rates, Buyouts Aid Capital One Amid Weak Asset Quality ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/relatively-high-rates-buyouts-aid-143500330.html))

- 2025-08-27: FDIC: Capital One-Discover deal dents Q2 bank profit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fdic-capital-one-discover-deal-122541385.html))

- 2025-10-22: COF's Q3 Earnings Top on Discover Deal, New Buyback Plan Boosts Stock ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cofs-q3-earnings-top-discover-131400944.html))

- 2026-01-22: Capital One announces acquisition of Brex, misses on Q4 earnings; stock falls ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/capital-one-announces-acquisition-brex-215334939.html))

- 2026-04-21: Capital One Boosts Provision for Bad Loans, Misses Estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/capital-one-boosts-provision-bad-220113535.html))

- 2026-07-22: Capital One's Q2 Earnings Beat on Higher Revenues, Lower Provisions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/capital-ones-q2-earnings-beat-131700583.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +36.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $26B 

- FY2017: $27B 

- FY2018: $28B 

- FY2019: $29B 

- FY2020: $29B 

- FY2021: $30B 

- FY2022: $34B 

- FY2023: $37B 

- FY2024: $39B 

- FY2025: $53B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 61.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 74.7% 

- FY2017: 72.3% 

- FY2018: 77.4% 

- FY2019: 78.2% 

- FY2020: 64.0% 

- FY2022: 82.9% 

- FY2023: 71.7% 

- FY2024: 70.0% 

- FY2025: 61.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in credit services; annual sales are USD 53.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm#000092762826000024 (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 53434000000; grossProfit 32779000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); COF.US: Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, time deposits, and sweep accounts. Its loan products include credit card and personal loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; bank lending; and provides advisory, capital markets, net interchange, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 61.3% to 71.7% during 2023–25; it earns 7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 71.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 70%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 61.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06397529230090448],[2017,0.07024952770780857],[2018,0.13273556431891784],[2019,0.4216904199375048],[2020,0.025329082298541968],[2021,0.1103061587753649],[2022,0.06887065230613754],[2023,0.04527305572282181],[2024,0.10741763215061549],[2025,0.028064893345340666]]; median 0.06956009000697305. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 4.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 779000000; owner earnings 5400000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1018000000; owner earnings 3404000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 874000000; owner earnings 7537000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 887000000; owner earnings 7998000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 710000000; owner earnings 5505000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 698000000; owner earnings 15173000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 934000000; owner earnings 9636000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 961000000; owner earnings 7152000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1204000000; owner earnings 6783000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1578000000; owner earnings 6135000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,1026000000],[2017,1045000000],[2018,1038000000],[2019,1035000000],[2020,740000000],[2021,1422000000],[2022,1178000000],[2023,1159000000],[2024,1160000000],[2025,1768000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 4599000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); COF.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.2269999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We may experience increases in delinquencies and credit losses" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); We may experience increases in delinquencies and credit losses

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07854618173973421. Price 198.86; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 10.251824817518248 → FY2025 11.33382597450582. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $74.04 per share

- 2016-11: $84.04 per share

- 2016-12: $87.24 per share

- 2017-01: $87.39 per share

- 2017-02: $93.86 per share

- 2017-03: $86.66 per share

- 2017-04: $80.38 per share

- 2017-05: $76.92 per share

- 2017-06: $82.62 per share

- 2017-07: $86.18 per share

- 2017-08: $79.61 per share

- 2017-09: $84.66 per share

- 2017-10: $92.18 per share

- 2017-11: $92.00 per share

- 2017-12: $99.58 per share

- 2018-01: $103.96 per share

- 2018-02: $97.93 per share

- 2018-03: $95.82 per share

- 2018-04: $90.62 per share

- 2018-05: $94.00 per share

- 2018-06: $91.90 per share

- 2018-07: $94.32 per share

- 2018-08: $99.09 per share

- 2018-09: $94.93 per share

- 2018-10: $89.30 per share

- 2018-11: $89.68 per share

- 2018-12: $75.59 per share

- 2019-01: $80.59 per share

- 2019-02: $83.58 per share

- 2019-03: $81.69 per share

- 2019-04: $92.83 per share

- 2019-05: $85.87 per share

- 2019-06: $90.74 per share

- 2019-07: $92.42 per share

- 2019-08: $86.62 per share

- 2019-09: $90.98 per share

- 2019-10: $93.25 per share

- 2019-11: $100.01 per share

- 2019-12: $102.91 per share

- 2020-01: $99.80 per share

- 2020-02: $88.26 per share

- 2020-03: $50.42 per share

- 2020-04: $64.76 per share

- 2020-05: $68.04 per share

- 2020-06: $62.59 per share

- 2020-07: $63.80 per share

- 2020-08: $69.03 per share

- 2020-09: $71.86 per share

- 2020-10: $73.08 per share

- 2020-11: $85.64 per share

- 2020-12: $98.85 per share

- 2021-01: $104.26 per share

- 2021-02: $120.19 per share

- 2021-03: $127.23 per share

- 2021-04: $149.08 per share

- 2021-05: $160.78 per share

- 2021-06: $154.69 per share

- 2021-07: $161.70 per share

- 2021-08: $165.97 per share

- 2021-09: $161.97 per share

- 2021-10: $151.03 per share

- 2021-11: $140.53 per share

- 2021-12: $145.09 per share

- 2022-01: $146.73 per share

- 2022-02: $153.27 per share

- 2022-03: $131.29 per share

- 2022-04: $124.62 per share

- 2022-05: $127.86 per share

- 2022-06: $104.19 per share

- 2022-07: $109.83 per share

- 2022-08: $105.82 per share

- 2022-09: $92.17 per share

- 2022-10: $106.02 per share

- 2022-11: $103.24 per share

- 2022-12: $92.96 per share

- 2023-01: $119.00 per share

- 2023-02: $109.08 per share

- 2023-03: $96.16 per share

- 2023-04: $97.30 per share

- 2023-05: $104.21 per share

- 2023-06: $109.37 per share

- 2023-07: $117.02 per share

- 2023-08: $102.39 per share

- 2023-09: $97.05 per share

- 2023-10: $101.29 per share

- 2023-11: $111.66 per share

- 2023-12: $131.12 per share

- 2024-01: $135.32 per share

- 2024-02: $137.61 per share

- 2024-03: $148.89 per share

- 2024-04: $143.43 per share

- 2024-05: $137.63 per share

- 2024-06: $138.45 per share

- 2024-07: $151.40 per share

- 2024-08: $146.93 per share

- 2024-09: $149.73 per share

- 2024-10: $162.79 per share

- 2024-11: $192.01 per share

- 2024-12: $178.32 per share

- 2025-01: $203.71 per share

- 2025-02: $200.55 per share

- 2025-03: $179.30 per share

- 2025-04: $180.26 per share

- 2025-05: $189.15 per share

- 2025-06: $212.76 per share

- 2025-07: $215.00 per share

- 2025-08: $227.22 per share

- 2025-09: $212.58 per share

- 2025-10: $219.99 per share

- 2025-11: $219.07 per share

- 2025-12: $242.36 per share

- 2026-01: $218.93 per share

- 2026-02: $195.64 per share

- 2026-03: $182.43 per share

- 2026-04: $191.30 per share

- 2026-05: $187.93 per share

- 2026-06: $200.62 per share

- 2026-07: $209.01 per share

- 2026-08: $214.51 per share

- 2026-09: $193.07 per share

- 2026-10: $198.07 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $131.19 per share, central $149.28 per share, high $173.36 per share

- FY2017: low $146.20 per share, central $166.36 per share, high $193.20 per share

- FY2018: low $152.42 per share, central $173.44 per share, high $201.42 per share

- FY2019: low $194.63 per share, central $272.46 per share, high $319.76 per share

- FY2020: low $143.86 per share, central $163.70 per share, high $190.10 per share

- FY2021: low $201.04 per share, central $228.76 per share, high $265.66 per share

- FY2022: low $266.32 per share, central $303.04 per share, high $351.92 per share

- FY2023: low $293.36 per share, central $333.80 per share, high $387.65 per share

- FY2024: low $216.67 per share, central $246.54 per share, high $286.31 per share

- FY2025: low $209.77 per share, central $238.69 per share, high $277.19 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.