# Coinbase Global (COIN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/COIN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:36.999Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $183.81 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $91.40 per share, central $99.33 per share, high $109.89 per share. Buy at or below the central value $99.33 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:36.999Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.0% at the stated quote. About 6.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 8.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -0.07×

- FY2020: 0.32×

- FY2021: 0.39×

- FY2022: -0.84×

- FY2023: -0.04×

- FY2024: 0.35×

- FY2025: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 9.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -4.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 9.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 83.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 74.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -4.5%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: -81.6%

- FY2023: -3.4%

- FY2024: 47.9%

- FY2025: 18.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.67×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -55.8 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.86×

- FY2022: 1.20×

- FY2023: 0.83×

- FY2024: 0.64×

- FY2025: 1.26×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 150.5% vs 18.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.67 to 4.39 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 8.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 8.3%

- Per-share value growth: 27.3%

- Per-share value change: $2.71

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.67

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.39

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.80

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -$0.50

- FY2020: $1.67

- FY2021: $16.48

- FY2022: -$11.81

- FY2023: $0.37

- FY2024: $9.43

- FY2025: $4.39

### accounting: fail

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.72×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 34.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.93×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.38×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 2.1%

- FY2020: -45.8%

- FY2021: -1.9%

- FY2022: -1.2%

- FY2023: -5.6%

- FY2024: 0.1%

- FY2025: -3.9%

## Holders

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 51% since Jul 2025 · "Crypto exchange Coinbase logs third straight quarterly loss on trading slowdown" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +9.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:32.803Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: Coinbase waives fees on PayPal’s stablecoin in crypto payments push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-waives-fees-paypal-stablecoin-110250857.html))

- 2025-06-22: Coinbase Global (COIN) Jumps 27% W/W on Stablecoin Bill Passage, Stock Trading Adoption Plan ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-global-coin-jumps-27-185937940.html))

- 2025-08-01: Coinbase stock takes a hit as lower crypto volatility slows trading activity ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-stock-takes-a-hit-as-lower-crypto-volatility-slows-trading-activity-163109109.html))

- 2025-11-28: Argus Just Slashed Its Earnings Estimates for Coinbase. Should You Dump COIN Stock Here? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argus-just-slashed-earnings-estimates-140002630.html))

- 2026-01-16: COIN Stock Price Drops 6.4% after Coinbase Withdraws Support for Crypto Bill ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coin-stock-price-drops-6-091316536.html))

- 2026-08-24: Coinbase Global (COIN) Adds 290 Plus Leveraged Markets To Base App ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/coinbase-global-coin-adds-290-231321248.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000015/coin-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2019: $534M 

- FY2020: $1.3B 

- FY2021: $7.8B 

- FY2022: $3.2B 

- FY2023: $3.1B 

- FY2024: $6.6B 

- FY2025: $7.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000015/coin-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2019: 84.6% 

- FY2020: 89.4% 

- FY2021: 83.8% 

- FY2022: 80.3% 

- FY2023: 86.5% 

- FY2024: 74.7% 

- FY2025: 74.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in financial data & stock exchanges; annual sales are USD 7.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000015/coin-20251231.htm#000167978826000015 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 7181325000; grossProfit 5360105000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 74.6% to 86.5% during 2023–25; it earns 18.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 86.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 74.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000015/coin-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,-0.04488019662003529],[2020,2.0827055629021163],[2021,1.5054245920056997],[2022,-0.8160698599890257],[2023,-0.03424879274228446],[2024,0.4793279553449602],[2025,0.1843225120718878]]; median 0.1843225120718878. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 7 years; bought back USD 790.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 18802000; owner earnings 1172045000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 82873000; owner earnings 3134614000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 63202000; owner earnings 79081000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 1644006000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000015/coin-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 1586943000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2019,27630000],[2020,6197000],[2021,3353762001],[2022,279522000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000015/coin-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 790195000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); COIN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.324 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our net revenue may be concentrated in a limited number of areas." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000015/coin-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Our net revenue may be concentrated in a limited number of areas.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.15034952123825274. Price 183.81; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-04: $297.64 per share

- 2021-05: $236.54 per share

- 2021-06: $253.30 per share

- 2021-07: $236.58 per share

- 2021-08: $259.00 per share

- 2021-09: $227.48 per share

- 2021-10: $319.42 per share

- 2021-11: $315.00 per share

- 2021-12: $252.37 per share

- 2022-01: $190.15 per share

- 2022-02: $190.77 per share

- 2022-03: $189.86 per share

- 2022-04: $112.71 per share

- 2022-05: $78.10 per share

- 2022-06: $47.02 per share

- 2022-07: $62.96 per share

- 2022-08: $66.80 per share

- 2022-09: $64.49 per share

- 2022-10: $66.25 per share

- 2022-11: $45.73 per share

- 2022-12: $35.39 per share

- 2023-01: $58.48 per share

- 2023-02: $64.83 per share

- 2023-03: $67.57 per share

- 2023-04: $53.79 per share

- 2023-05: $62.20 per share

- 2023-06: $71.55 per share

- 2023-07: $98.61 per share

- 2023-08: $79.60 per share

- 2023-09: $75.08 per share

- 2023-10: $77.12 per share

- 2023-11: $124.72 per share

- 2023-12: $173.92 per share

- 2024-01: $128.20 per share

- 2024-02: $203.56 per share

- 2024-03: $265.12 per share

- 2024-04: $203.93 per share

- 2024-05: $225.92 per share

- 2024-06: $222.23 per share

- 2024-07: $224.36 per share

- 2024-08: $183.36 per share

- 2024-09: $178.17 per share

- 2024-10: $179.25 per share

- 2024-11: $296.20 per share

- 2024-12: $248.30 per share

- 2025-01: $291.33 per share

- 2025-02: $215.62 per share

- 2025-03: $172.23 per share

- 2025-04: $202.89 per share

- 2025-05: $246.62 per share

- 2025-06: $350.49 per share

- 2025-07: $377.76 per share

- 2025-08: $304.54 per share

- 2025-09: $337.49 per share

- 2025-10: $343.78 per share

- 2025-11: $272.82 per share

- 2025-12: $226.14 per share

- 2026-01: $194.74 per share

- 2026-02: $175.85 per share

- 2026-03: $174.61 per share

- 2026-04: $187.77 per share

- 2026-05: $189.03 per share

- 2026-06: $146.19 per share

- 2026-07: $146.26 per share

- 2026-08: $188.12 per share

- 2026-09: $186.41 per share

- 2026-10: $181.79 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $24.87 per share, central $25.34 per share, high $25.97 per share

- FY2024: low $100.18 per share, central $109.24 per share, high $121.31 per share

- FY2025: low $101.38 per share, central $109.70 per share, high $120.79 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000015/coin-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.