# Costain Group (COST.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/COST.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:44:34.269Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 246.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 178.03 per share, central GBX 193.02 per share, high GBX 212.98 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 193.02 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:44:34.269Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.8% at the stated quote. About 7.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 2.70×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.01×

- FY2020: -0.08×

- FY2021: -0.01×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 28.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -12.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 5.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 25.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 17.0%

- FY2017: 16.2%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 17.9%

- FY2020: -157.8%

- FY2021: -12.4%

- FY2022: 38.4%

- FY2023: 72.8%

- FY2024: 45.0%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.28×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 141M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 110M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.11×

- FY2022: 1.20×

- FY2023: 1.50×

- FY2024: 1.05×

- FY2025: 1.17×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.0% vs 72.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.25 to 0.11 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 10.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: GBP 68M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 69M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 10.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -9.6%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.25

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.11

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.80

- Average buyback yield: 8.2%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 74M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 121M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 72.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.25

- FY2017: GBP 0.31

- FY2018: GBP 0.30

- FY2019: GBP -0.03

- FY2020: GBP -0.28

- FY2021: GBP -0.02

- FY2022: GBP 0.09

- FY2023: GBP 0.08

- FY2024: GBP 0.11

- FY2025: GBP 0.14

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.24×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.38×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.20×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.3%

- FY2017: -2.9%

- FY2018: 14.1%

- FY2019: 5.3%

- FY2020: -6.4%

- FY2021: -6.6%

- FY2022: 2.4%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -2.2%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.4% a year for ten years · sales -16.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.099Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -16.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31/reports/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2017: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2020: GBP 978M 

- FY2021: GBP 1.1B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.3B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.3B 

- FY2025: GBP 1.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 10.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31/reports/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: 4.8% 

- FY2017: 5.2% 

- FY2018: 6.1% 

- FY2019: 4.1% 

- FY2021: 3.4% 

- FY2022: 5.8% 

- FY2023: 7.8% 

- FY2024: 8.3% 

- FY2025: 10.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are GBP 1 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31/reports/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: revenue 1045700000; grossProfit 112700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); COST.LSE: Costain Group PLC provides infrastructure solutions for the transportation, energy, water, and defense sectors in the United Kingdom. The company operates in two segments, Transportation and Natural Resources. It operates in the road, rail, and integrated transport markets, as well as in the water, energy, defense, and nuclear energy markets. The company also provides engineering, construction, maintenance, renewals, advisory, design, and consulting services, as well as solutions. Costain Group PLC was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 7.8% to 10.8% during 2023–25; it earns 28.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 7.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 8.3%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31/reports/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17026928008792822],[2017,0.16152684742158427],[2018,4.487562189054727],[2019,0.1793886462882096],[2020,-1.5780541871921183],[2021,-0.12364085667215816],[2022,0.38381938311026564],[2023,0.7277579060920911],[2024,0.4503087515082688],[2025,1.6325707942054306]]; median 0.2816040146992376. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 10 years; bought back GBP 12 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 7000000; owner earnings 31000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1800000; owner earnings 38400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1000000; owner earnings 38400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 6900000; owner earnings 4500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2200000; owner earnings 640000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 500000; owner earnings 31080000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 100000; owner earnings 33240000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 5500000; owner earnings 32140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31/reports/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1400000; owner earnings 43800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Dividend observations: [[2016,11000000],[2017,11900000],[2018,13700000],[2019,13500000],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,1100000],[2024,3200000],[2025,7300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31/reports/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: cash repurchases 12000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); COST.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.012 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06436130918739325. Price 246.5; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.2588686481303931 → FY2025 0.158703702361714. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 370.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 353.25 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 353.75 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 369.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 389.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 460.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 487.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 484.25 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 461.25 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 470.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 446.75 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 448.25 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 432.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 429.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 467.75 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 459.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 442.50 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 464.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 460.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 458.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 440.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 436.50 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 425.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 417.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 375.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 371.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 315.50 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 390.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 372.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 335.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 321.50 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 315.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 174.20 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 156.60 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 149.60 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 156.20 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 167.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 193.80 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 159.40 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 195.80 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 165.80 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 35.10 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 78.70 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 77.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 71.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 60.30 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 54.10 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 40.90 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 32.65 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 56.60 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 59.20 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 57.50 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 61.50 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 57.70 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 59.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 58.10 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 58.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 55.80 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 59.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 56.80 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 53.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 53.50 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 53.40 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 48.60 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 43.80 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 39.75 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 40.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 39.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 34.20 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 43.90 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 40.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 40.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 35.45 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 40.75 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 39.38 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 46.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 43.95 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 54.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 59.60 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 50.80 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 46.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 49.90 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 57.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 56.80 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 50.80 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 62.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 63.40 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 67.80 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 61.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 75.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 83.20 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 87.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 84.80 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 87.20 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 104.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 98.60 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 104.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 103.50 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 106.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 95.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 108.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 105.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 110.20 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 123.80 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 148.20 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 163.60 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 134.40 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 135.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 153.40 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 153.60 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 159.60 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 177.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 186.60 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 181.40 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 186.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 193.80 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 207.50 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 211.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 230.50 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 260.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 246.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 492.37 per share, central GBX 537.89 per share, high GBX 597.35 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 545.43 per share, central GBX 592.63 per share, high GBX 655.48 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 463.52 per share, central GBX 507.71 per share, high GBX 565.84 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 371.73 per share, central GBX 404.08 per share, high GBX 447.13 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 124.38 per share, central GBX 134.95 per share, high GBX 149.01 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 67.29 per share, central GBX 69.71 per share, high GBX 72.94 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 56.66 per share, central GBX 59.70 per share, high GBX 63.73 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 70.27 per share, central GBX 73.10 per share, high GBX 76.86 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 158.36 per share, central GBX 173.46 per share, high GBX 193.55 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 173.78 per share, central GBX 188.03 per share, high GBX 207.00 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:50:22.059Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31/reports/213800PKIJBZ2EDTKC88-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Costain Group

COST · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 246.50
Buy up to: GBX 193.02
Expected / yr: 7.8% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Sales fell in 6 years (limit 5), and 3 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and margins varied 269.8% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 2.5%
Worst year: -8.3%
Latest · 2025: 4.6%

The second-worst year -12.4% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 28.2%
Worst year: -157.8%
Latest · 2025: >100%

Each $1 of profit left $1.28 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.28×
Annual median: 1.17×
Latest · 2025: 1.17×

Per-share value fell from 0.25 to 0.11, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.10
Worst year: GBP -0.28
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.14

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -2.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -2.7%
Worst year: 14.1%
Latest · 2025: -2.5%

Profit record · fail 3 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 1.3%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.13 GBP. 3 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 370.00 · Value 537.89 · Buy at or below 537.89; 2016-11 · Price GBX 353.25 · Value 537.89 · Buy at or below 537.89; 2016-12 · Price GBX 353.75 · Value 537.89 · Buy at or below 537.89; 2017-01 · Price GBX 369.00 · Value 537.89 · Buy at or below 537.89; 2017-02 · Price GBX 389.00 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-03 · Price GBX 460.00 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-04 · Price GBX 487.00 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-05 · Price GBX 484.25 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-06 · Price GBX 461.25 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-07 · Price GBX 470.00 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-08 · Price GBX 446.75 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-09 · Price GBX 448.25 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-10 · Price GBX 432.00 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-11 · Price GBX 429.00 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2017-12 · Price GBX 467.75 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2018-01 · Price GBX 459.00 · Value 592.63 · Buy at or below 592.63; 2018-02 · Price GBX 442.50 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-03 · Price GBX 464.50 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-04 · Price GBX 460.00 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-05 · Price GBX 458.50 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-06 · Price GBX 440.00 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-07 · Price GBX 436.50 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-08 · Price GBX 425.00 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-09 · Price GBX 417.00 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-10 · Price GBX 375.50 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-11 · Price GBX 371.00 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2018-12 · Price GBX 315.50 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2019-01 · Price GBX 390.00 · Value 507.71 · Buy at or below 507.71; 2019-02 · Price GBX 372.00 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-03 · Price GBX 335.00 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-04 · Price GBX 321.50 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-05 · Price GBX 315.00 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-06 · Price GBX 174.20 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-07 · Price GBX 156.60 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-08 · Price GBX 149.60 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-09 · Price GBX 156.20 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-10 · Price GBX 167.00 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-11 · Price GBX 193.80 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2019-12 · Price GBX 159.40 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2020-01 · Price GBX 195.80 · Value 404.08 · Buy at or below 404.08; 2020-02 · Price GBX 165.80 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-03 · Price GBX 35.10 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-04 · Price GBX 78.70 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-05 · Price GBX 77.00 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-06 · Price GBX 71.00 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-07 · Price GBX 60.30 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-08 · Price GBX 54.10 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-09 · Price GBX 40.90 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-10 · Price GBX 32.65 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-11 · Price GBX 56.60 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2020-12 · Price GBX 59.20 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2021-01 · Price GBX 57.50 · Value 134.95 · Buy at or below 134.95; 2021-02 · Price GBX 61.50 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-03 · Price GBX 57.70 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-04 · Price GBX 59.00 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-05 · Price GBX 58.10 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-06 · Price GBX 58.00 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-07 · Price GBX 55.80 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-08 · Price GBX 59.00 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-09 · Price GBX 56.80 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-10 · Price GBX 53.50 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-11 · Price GBX 53.50 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2021-12 · Price GBX 53.40 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2022-01 · Price GBX 48.60 · Value 69.71 · Buy at or below 69.71; 2022-02 · Price GBX 43.80 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-03 · Price GBX 39.75 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-04 · Price GBX 40.00 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-05 · Price GBX 39.00 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-06 · Price GBX 34.20 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-07 · Price GBX 43.90 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-08 · Price GBX 40.00 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-09 · Price GBX 40.00 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-10 · Price GBX 35.45 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-11 · Price GBX 40.75 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2022-12 · Price GBX 39.38 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2023-01 · Price GBX 46.00 · Value 59.70 · Buy at or below 59.70; 2023-02 · Price GBX 43.95 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-03 · Price GBX 54.50 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-04 · Price GBX 59.60 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-05 · Price GBX 50.80 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-06 · Price GBX 46.00 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-07 · Price GBX 49.90 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-08 · Price GBX 57.00 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-09 · Price GBX 56.80 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-10 · Price GBX 50.80 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-11 · Price GBX 62.00 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2023-12 · Price GBX 63.40 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2024-01 · Price GBX 67.80 · Value 73.10 · Buy at or below 73.10; 2024-02 · Price GBX 61.00 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-03 · Price GBX 75.00 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-04 · Price GBX 83.20 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-05 · Price GBX 87.00 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-06 · Price GBX 84.80 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-07 · Price GBX 87.20 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-08 · Price GBX 104.00 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-09 · Price GBX 98.60 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-10 · Price GBX 104.50 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-11 · Price GBX 103.50 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2024-12 · Price GBX 106.00 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2025-01 · Price GBX 95.00 · Value 173.46 · Buy at or below 173.46; 2025-02 · Price GBX 108.00 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-03 · Price GBX 105.50 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-04 · Price GBX 110.20 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-05 · Price GBX 123.80 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-06 · Price GBX 148.20 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-07 · Price GBX 163.60 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-08 · Price GBX 134.40 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-09 · Price GBX 135.00 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-10 · Price GBX 153.40 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-11 · Price GBX 153.60 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2025-12 · Price GBX 159.60 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2026-01 · Price GBX 177.00 · Value 188.03 · Buy at or below 188.03; 2026-02 · Price GBX 186.60 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-03 · Price GBX 181.40 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-04 · Price GBX 186.60 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-05 · Price GBX 193.80 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-06 · Price GBX 207.50 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-07 · Price GBX 211.00 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-08 · Price GBX 230.50 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-09 · Price GBX 260.00 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-10 · Price GBX 246.50 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02; 2026-10 · Price GBX 246.50 · Value 193.02 · Buy at or below 193.02

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 178.03 – GBX 212.98
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 193.02
Discount to value	1 − 246.50 / 193.02 = -27.7%
Return / year	About 7.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 9.95/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 69.30/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 1.0B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 44M

Owner earnings

Operating margin4.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP 190M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares276M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·