# Copa Holdings (CPA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CPA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:40.602Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $133.91 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $173.36 per share, central $219.48 per share, high $251.92 per share. Buy at or below the central value $219.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:40.602Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.5% at the stated quote. About 15.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 2.51×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: -0.58×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.23×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.23×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 16.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.8%

- FY2017: 14.8%

- FY2018: 4.3%

- FY2019: 12.0%

- FY2020: -20.6%

- FY2021: 6.6%

- FY2022: 18.2%

- FY2023: 23.2%

- FY2024: 20.6%

- FY2025: 17.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.74×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 24.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.46×

- FY2025: 0.64×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.8% vs 20.6%

- Per-share earnings: 7.63 to 14.58 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: $1.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $948M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.4%

- Per-share value change: $6.95

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $7.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $14.58

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.20

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $105M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $7.63

- FY2017: $8.55

- FY2018: $2.08

- FY2019: $5.81

- FY2020: -$14.28

- FY2021: $1.03

- FY2022: $8.80

- FY2023: $12.79

- FY2024: $14.58

- FY2025: $16.26

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.67×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.8%

- FY2017: -8.6%

- FY2018: -6.2%

- FY2019: -12.3%

- FY2020: -14.7%

- FY2021: -10.9%

- FY2022: -8.8%

- FY2023: -10.2%

- FY2024: -6.8%

- FY2025: -6.9%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3% a year for ten years · sales +10.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:33.475Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-12: Copa Holdings (CPA) Reports 10% RPM Growth and Increased Load Factor for August 2025 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copa-holdings-cpa-reports-10-181031099.html))

- 2026-03-13: Copa Holdings (CPA) Is Down 11.4% After Margin Squeeze Amid Costly Fleet Expansion Plans ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copa-holdings-cpa-down-11-181001386.html))

- 2026-06-03: Copa Dividend Hike Tests Cash Strength As Oil And Geopolitics Bite ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/copa-dividend-hike-tests-cash-231144780.html))

- 2026-08-06: Copa Holdings Q2 Earnings Miss on Higher Fuel Costs, Revenues Lag ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/copa-holdings-q2-earnings-miss-175500029.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345105/000134510526000019/cpa-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $2.5B 

- FY2018: $2.7B 

- FY2019: $2.7B 

- FY2020: $801M 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $3.0B 

- FY2023: $3.5B 

- FY2024: $3.4B 

- FY2025: $3.6B 

- FY2026: $4.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 35.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345105/000134510526000019/cpa-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 35.1% 

- FY2017: 33.9% 

- FY2018: 29.5% 

- FY2019: 32.0% 

- FY2021: 27.8% 

- FY2022: 30.3% 

- FY2023: 36.9% 

- FY2024: 35.6% 

- FY2025: 35.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in airlines; annual sales are USD 3.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345105/000134510526000019/cpa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 3617822000; grossProfit 1286441000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CPA.US: Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services in North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 125 aircraft. The company was founded in 1947 and is based in Panama City, Panama.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.6% to 36.9% during 2023–25; it earns 13.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345105/000134510526000019/cpa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.10787415798760026],[2017,0.1477513479847351],[2018,0.04316310327890091],[2019,0.12023477980691553],[2020,-0.20599267865093027],[2021,0.06572193225029191],[2022,0.1819090186178292],[2023,0.23153976501427478],[2024,0.2056879607229456],[2025,0.178177807896646]]; median 0.13399306389582533. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 48.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 24.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 150298000; owner earnings 340921000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 152617000; upkeep 167324000; owner earnings 362599000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.42089746524397476.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 89348000; upkeep 276563000; owner earnings 88198000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0130388444182408.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 163290000; owner earnings 365792000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 243788000; upkeep 239946000; owner earnings 43844000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.560350332998814.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 364527000; upkeep 267704000; owner earnings 348054000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0473288627626747.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 523758000; upkeep 306114000; owner earnings 514097000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0187921734614285.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 656340000; owner earnings 282484000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345105/000134510526000019/cpa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 211375289.52566528; upkeep 604350710.4743347; owner earnings 432433289.5256653. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4888043882040677.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Incremental return on capital 0.2467370694556198, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,86116000],[2017,106792000],[2018,147604000],[2019,110438000],[2020,33990000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,134152000],[2024,269139000],[2025,265851999]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345105/000134510526000019/cpa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 8705000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CPA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.398 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.054434767000004214. Price 133.91; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -6.338259517577399 → FY2025 10.471300325100255. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $92.23 per share

- 2016-11: $88.87 per share

- 2016-12: $90.83 per share

- 2017-01: $97.49 per share

- 2017-02: $106.49 per share

- 2017-03: $112.25 per share

- 2017-04: $116.42 per share

- 2017-05: $113.04 per share

- 2017-06: $117.00 per share

- 2017-07: $125.46 per share

- 2017-08: $124.07 per share

- 2017-09: $124.53 per share

- 2017-10: $123.19 per share

- 2017-11: $134.19 per share

- 2017-12: $134.06 per share

- 2018-01: $138.33 per share

- 2018-02: $135.97 per share

- 2018-03: $128.63 per share

- 2018-04: $117.17 per share

- 2018-05: $110.80 per share

- 2018-06: $94.62 per share

- 2018-07: $97.34 per share

- 2018-08: $79.94 per share

- 2018-09: $79.84 per share

- 2018-10: $72.43 per share

- 2018-11: $85.03 per share

- 2018-12: $78.71 per share

- 2019-01: $94.85 per share

- 2019-02: $88.17 per share

- 2019-03: $80.61 per share

- 2019-04: $83.26 per share

- 2019-05: $89.61 per share

- 2019-06: $97.57 per share

- 2019-07: $101.10 per share

- 2019-08: $103.18 per share

- 2019-09: $98.75 per share

- 2019-10: $101.74 per share

- 2019-11: $104.26 per share

- 2019-12: $108.08 per share

- 2020-01: $97.96 per share

- 2020-02: $83.14 per share

- 2020-03: $45.29 per share

- 2020-04: $44.21 per share

- 2020-05: $43.86 per share

- 2020-06: $50.56 per share

- 2020-07: $41.44 per share

- 2020-08: $53.25 per share

- 2020-09: $50.34 per share

- 2020-10: $49.28 per share

- 2020-11: $79.70 per share

- 2020-12: $77.23 per share

- 2021-01: $77.37 per share

- 2021-02: $91.67 per share

- 2021-03: $80.79 per share

- 2021-04: $86.50 per share

- 2021-05: $82.26 per share

- 2021-06: $75.33 per share

- 2021-07: $70.91 per share

- 2021-08: $75.25 per share

- 2021-09: $81.38 per share

- 2021-10: $73.96 per share

- 2021-11: $69.92 per share

- 2021-12: $82.66 per share

- 2022-01: $83.58 per share

- 2022-02: $84.84 per share

- 2022-03: $83.64 per share

- 2022-04: $75.37 per share

- 2022-05: $70.70 per share

- 2022-06: $63.37 per share

- 2022-07: $67.22 per share

- 2022-08: $71.20 per share

- 2022-09: $67.01 per share

- 2022-10: $75.23 per share

- 2022-11: $87.63 per share

- 2022-12: $83.17 per share

- 2023-01: $92.08 per share

- 2023-02: $92.35 per share

- 2023-03: $92.35 per share

- 2023-04: $90.32 per share

- 2023-05: $105.06 per share

- 2023-06: $110.58 per share

- 2023-07: $118.02 per share

- 2023-08: $101.70 per share

- 2023-09: $89.12 per share

- 2023-10: $81.65 per share

- 2023-11: $92.64 per share

- 2023-12: $106.31 per share

- 2024-01: $96.06 per share

- 2024-02: $97.47 per share

- 2024-03: $104.16 per share

- 2024-04: $95.50 per share

- 2024-05: $97.23 per share

- 2024-06: $95.18 per share

- 2024-07: $88.75 per share

- 2024-08: $90.40 per share

- 2024-09: $93.84 per share

- 2024-10: $97.30 per share

- 2024-11: $93.37 per share

- 2024-12: $87.88 per share

- 2025-01: $93.22 per share

- 2025-02: $92.88 per share

- 2025-03: $92.46 per share

- 2025-04: $91.76 per share

- 2025-05: $107.78 per share

- 2025-06: $109.97 per share

- 2025-07: $110.66 per share

- 2025-08: $117.34 per share

- 2025-09: $118.82 per share

- 2025-10: $125.21 per share

- 2025-11: $121.80 per share

- 2025-12: $120.61 per share

- 2026-01: $136.40 per share

- 2026-02: $138.61 per share

- 2026-03: $113.61 per share

- 2026-04: $115.68 per share

- 2026-05: $142.89 per share

- 2026-06: $155.57 per share

- 2026-07: $141.22 per share

- 2026-08: $126.45 per share

- 2026-09: $131.85 per share

- 2026-10: $133.91 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $101.24 per share, central $112.69 per share, high $127.94 per share

- FY2017: low $114.47 per share, central $127.34 per share, high $144.49 per share

- FY2018: low $38.38 per share, central $41.51 per share, high $45.68 per share

- FY2019: low $112.95 per share, central $126.04 per share, high $143.35 per share

- FY2020: low $48.38 per share, central $52.22 per share, high $57.33 per share

- FY2021: low $35.99 per share, central $37.75 per share, high $40.10 per share

- FY2022: low $50.49 per share, central $56.13 per share, high $61.73 per share

- FY2023: low $140.40 per share, central $168.54 per share, high $193.09 per share

- FY2024: low $107.44 per share, central $126.70 per share, high $143.29 per share

- FY2025: low $160.11 per share, central $201.47 per share, high $230.56 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1345105/000134510526000019/cpa-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.