# Campbell's (CPB.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CPB

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:41.358Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $19.84 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $21.91 per share, central $24.84 per share, high $28.74 per share. Buy at or below the central value $24.84 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:41.358Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.9% at the stated quote. About 11.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.21×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 32.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 31.4%

- FY2018: 12.2%

- FY2019: 14.7%

- FY2020: 25.1%

- FY2021: 22.7%

- FY2022: 20.8%

- FY2023: 23.8%

- FY2024: 14.9%

- FY2025: 17.1%

- FY2026: 12.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.05×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.13×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 1.01×

- FY2026: 1.13×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.7% vs 14.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.81 to 1.89 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: -$9.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 0.5%

- Per-share value change: $0.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.81

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.89

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.03

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $7.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $2.89

- FY2018: $0.86

- FY2019: $0.70

- FY2020: $5.36

- FY2021: $3.29

- FY2022: $2.51

- FY2023: $2.85

- FY2024: $1.89

- FY2025: $2.01

- FY2026: $1.33

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.47×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.2%

- FY2018: -7.2%

- FY2019: -9.0%

- FY2020: 1.9%

- FY2021: -0.3%

- FY2022: -3.6%

- FY2023: -2.4%

- FY2024: -4.1%

- FY2025: -3.6%

- FY2026: -4.1%

## Holders

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bruce Berkowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/fairx): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 65% since Dec 2022 · "Campbell's cuts dividend, forecasts weaker fiscal 2027 sales" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:33.583Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-27: Campbell's Q3 beat overshadowed by cautious forecast and GIS fallout ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4463363-campbells-q3-beat-overshadowed-by-cautious-forecast-and-gis-fallout?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-12-09: Campbell’s Stock Fell on Continued Sales Decline. It’s Making a Bigger Bet on Rao’s. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/91e831ec-0bfb-38a9-9271-a8cf618c7b25/campbell%E2%80%99s-stock-fell-on.html))

- 2026-03-11: Campbell’s Cuts Outlook as Snack Sales Fall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/2f1567b8-8494-383b-84b3-f4897c269722/campbell%E2%80%99s-cuts-outlook-as.html))

- 2026-06-08: Campbell’s beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; reaffirms FY26 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4601369-campbells-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-reaffirms-fy26-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-20: Campbell's Faces Sharper FY27 Earnings Pressure Amid Weak Demand, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/campbell-apos-faces-sharper-fy27-162756961.html))

- 2026-09-03: Campbell's cuts dividend, unveils $500M cost plan after profit slide ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/campbells-cuts-dividend-unveils-500m-154000840.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16732/000001673226000026/cpb-20260802.htm; observed 2026-09-24.

- FY2017: $5.8B 

- FY2018: $6.6B 

- FY2019: $8.1B 

- FY2020: $8.7B 

- FY2021: $8.5B 

- FY2022: $8.6B 

- FY2023: $9.4B 

- FY2024: $9.6B 

- FY2025: $10B 

- FY2026: $9.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 28.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16732/000001673226000026/cpb-20260802.htm; observed 2026-09-24.

- FY2017: 41.8% 

- FY2018: 35.9% 

- FY2019: 33.2% 

- FY2020: 34.5% 

- FY2021: 33.2% 

- FY2022: 30.7% 

- FY2023: 31.2% 

- FY2024: 30.8% 

- FY2025: 30.4% 

- FY2026: 28.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are USD 9.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2026: revenue 9744000000; grossProfit 2742000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CPB.US: The Campbell's Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and marketing of food and beverage products in the United States and internationally. It operates through Meals & Beverages, and Snacks segments. The Meals & Beverages segment engages in the retail and foodservice businesses in the United States and Canada. This segment provides Campbell's condensed and ready-to-serve soups; Swanson broth and stocks; pacific foods broth, soups and non-dairy beverages; Prego pasta sauces; Pace mexican sauces; Spaghettios pasta; Campbell's gravies, beans and dinner sauces; Swanson canned poultry; V8 Juices And Beverages; Campbell's Tomato Juice; Rao's Pasta sauces, dry pasta, frozen entrées, frozen pizza and soups; Michael Angelo's Frozen Entrées And Pasta Sauces; and Noosa Yogurts. The Snacks Segment Retails Pepperidge Farm Cookies, Crackers, Fresh Bakery and Frozen Products, including Goldfish Crackers, Snyder's of Hanover Pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod potato chips, Kettle brand potato chips, late july snacks, Snack factory pretzel crisps, and other snacking products. This segment is also involved in the snacking, and meals and beverage retail business in Latin America. It sells its products through retail food chains, mass discounters, mass merchandisers, club stores, convenience stores, dollar stores, e-commerce and other retail, commercial and non-commercial establishments, and independent contractor distributors. The company was formerly known as Campbell Soup Company and changed its name to The Campbell's Company in November 2024. The Campbell's Company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Camden, New Jersey.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.1% to 30.8% during 2024–26; it earns 18.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 28.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.31402204562932584],[2018,0.12169729585775282],[2019,0.14731806836679326],[2020,0.25083086611120603],[2021,0.22727789203376927],[2022,0.2077182415192203],[2023,0.2377221169148429],[2024,0.14929041405560242],[2025,0.17079765376708278],[2026,0.12372673266190681]]; median 0.18925794764315154. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 26 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 338000000; owner earnings 867000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2018: growth capex 13000000; upkeep 394000000; owner earnings 261000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04980842911877394.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 384000000; owner earnings 273000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 299000000; owner earnings 1657000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 275000000; owner earnings 1044000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 242000000; owner earnings 852000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 370000000; owner earnings 875000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2024: growth capex 79485547.45149404; upkeep 437514452.54850596; owner earnings 540485547.451494. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14706322458812368.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 426000000; owner earnings 610000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 361000000; owner earnings 455000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,420000000],[2018,426000000],[2019,423000000],[2020,426000000],[2021,439000000],[2022,451000000],[2023,447000000],[2024,445000000],[2025,459000000],[2026,470000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); FY2026: cash repurchases 26000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 40.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CPB.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 40.161 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.04113536095848119. Price 19.84; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.7041800643086817 → FY2026 1.4967105263157894. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $54.34 per share

- 2016-11: $56.89 per share

- 2016-12: $60.47 per share

- 2017-01: $62.23 per share

- 2017-02: $59.35 per share

- 2017-03: $57.24 per share

- 2017-04: $57.54 per share

- 2017-05: $57.65 per share

- 2017-06: $52.15 per share

- 2017-07: $52.83 per share

- 2017-08: $46.20 per share

- 2017-09: $46.82 per share

- 2017-10: $47.37 per share

- 2017-11: $49.30 per share

- 2017-12: $48.11 per share

- 2018-01: $46.55 per share

- 2018-02: $43.05 per share

- 2018-03: $43.31 per share

- 2018-04: $40.78 per share

- 2018-05: $33.64 per share

- 2018-06: $40.54 per share

- 2018-07: $40.90 per share

- 2018-08: $39.45 per share

- 2018-09: $36.63 per share

- 2018-10: $37.41 per share

- 2018-11: $39.20 per share

- 2018-12: $32.99 per share

- 2019-01: $35.43 per share

- 2019-02: $36.02 per share

- 2019-03: $38.13 per share

- 2019-04: $38.69 per share

- 2019-05: $36.31 per share

- 2019-06: $40.07 per share

- 2019-07: $41.34 per share

- 2019-08: $45.00 per share

- 2019-09: $46.92 per share

- 2019-10: $46.31 per share

- 2019-11: $46.57 per share

- 2019-12: $49.42 per share

- 2020-01: $48.39 per share

- 2020-02: $45.12 per share

- 2020-03: $46.16 per share

- 2020-04: $49.98 per share

- 2020-05: $50.98 per share

- 2020-06: $49.63 per share

- 2020-07: $49.57 per share

- 2020-08: $52.61 per share

- 2020-09: $48.37 per share

- 2020-10: $46.67 per share

- 2020-11: $50.02 per share

- 2020-12: $48.35 per share

- 2021-01: $48.11 per share

- 2021-02: $45.48 per share

- 2021-03: $50.27 per share

- 2021-04: $47.75 per share

- 2021-05: $48.67 per share

- 2021-06: $45.59 per share

- 2021-07: $43.72 per share

- 2021-08: $41.73 per share

- 2021-09: $41.81 per share

- 2021-10: $39.95 per share

- 2021-11: $40.33 per share

- 2021-12: $43.46 per share

- 2022-01: $44.12 per share

- 2022-02: $44.97 per share

- 2022-03: $44.57 per share

- 2022-04: $47.22 per share

- 2022-05: $47.91 per share

- 2022-06: $48.05 per share

- 2022-07: $49.35 per share

- 2022-08: $50.38 per share

- 2022-09: $47.12 per share

- 2022-10: $52.91 per share

- 2022-11: $53.67 per share

- 2022-12: $56.75 per share

- 2023-01: $51.93 per share

- 2023-02: $52.52 per share

- 2023-03: $54.98 per share

- 2023-04: $54.30 per share

- 2023-05: $50.55 per share

- 2023-06: $45.71 per share

- 2023-07: $45.82 per share

- 2023-08: $41.70 per share

- 2023-09: $41.08 per share

- 2023-10: $40.41 per share

- 2023-11: $40.18 per share

- 2023-12: $43.23 per share

- 2024-01: $44.63 per share

- 2024-02: $42.64 per share

- 2024-03: $44.45 per share

- 2024-04: $45.71 per share

- 2024-05: $44.38 per share

- 2024-06: $45.19 per share

- 2024-07: $46.86 per share

- 2024-08: $49.72 per share

- 2024-09: $48.92 per share

- 2024-10: $46.65 per share

- 2024-11: $46.20 per share

- 2024-12: $41.88 per share

- 2025-01: $38.77 per share

- 2025-02: $40.06 per share

- 2025-03: $39.92 per share

- 2025-04: $36.46 per share

- 2025-05: $34.04 per share

- 2025-06: $30.65 per share

- 2025-07: $31.92 per share

- 2025-08: $31.93 per share

- 2025-09: $31.58 per share

- 2025-10: $30.13 per share

- 2025-11: $30.48 per share

- 2025-12: $27.87 per share

- 2026-01: $27.98 per share

- 2026-02: $26.95 per share

- 2026-03: $22.27 per share

- 2026-04: $20.79 per share

- 2026-05: $21.11 per share

- 2026-06: $22.27 per share

- 2026-07: $21.98 per share

- 2026-08: $23.68 per share

- 2026-09: $19.83 per share

- 2026-10: $19.84 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $15.80 per share, central $17.89 per share, high $20.67 per share

- FY2018: low $17.45 per share, central $19.85 per share, high $23.06 per share

- FY2019: low $19.53 per share, central $22.23 per share, high $25.81 per share

- FY2020: low $23.06 per share, central $25.93 per share, high $29.74 per share

- FY2021: low $37.41 per share, central $42.57 per share, high $49.44 per share

- FY2022: low $30.84 per share, central $35.09 per share, high $40.75 per share

- FY2023: low $33.82 per share, central $38.48 per share, high $44.69 per share

- FY2024: low $34.94 per share, central $39.75 per share, high $46.16 per share

- FY2025: low $34.93 per share, central $39.75 per share, high $46.16 per share

- FY2026: low $21.50 per share, central $24.37 per share, high $28.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16732/000001673226000026/cpb-20260802.htm); period 2026-08-02, filed 2026-09-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.