# Croda International (CRDA.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CRDA.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:57.012Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 3,589.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 883.27 per share, central GBX 991.32 per share, high GBX 1,135.16 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 991.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:57.012Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.7% at the stated quote. About 4.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.23×

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.24×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.23×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 30.9%

- FY2017: 27.6%

- FY2018: 23.4%

- FY2019: 23.4%

- FY2020: 15.2%

- FY2021: 19.9%

- FY2022: 21.4%

- FY2023: 9.2%

- FY2024: 9.1%

- FY2025: 9.7%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.87×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 1.2B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -2.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 30.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.94×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.53×

- FY2024: 0.60×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 27.6% vs 9.2%

- Per-share earnings: 1.48 to 1.13 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Market cap gain: GBP -390M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.3%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.35

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 1.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 1.13

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.29

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 1.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 2.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 27.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 1.48

- FY2017: GBP 1.83

- FY2018: GBP 1.85

- FY2019: GBP 1.74

- FY2020: GBP 1.53

- FY2021: GBP 2.29

- FY2022: GBP 4.66

- FY2023: GBP 1.22

- FY2024: GBP 1.13

- FY2025: GBP 0.43

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.17×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.67×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.59×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.5%

- FY2017: -1.5%

- FY2018: -1.2%

- FY2019: -4.2%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: -0.8%

- FY2022: 9.4%

- FY2023: -4.7%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -6.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 65% since Dec 2021 · sales +4.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.390Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31/reports/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2016: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2017: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2022: GBP 2.1B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2025: GBP 1.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 35.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31/reports/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2016: 35.8% 

- FY2017: 37.7% 

- FY2018: 37.7% 

- FY2019: 32.4% 

- FY2020: 39.6% 

- FY2021: 43.7% 

- FY2022: 41.4% 

- FY2023: 43.1% 

- FY2024: 45.1% 

- FY2025: 35.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are GBP 1.7 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31/reports/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: revenue 1699400000; grossProfit 608700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CRDA.LSE: Croda International Plc engages in the consumer care, life science, and industrial specialty businesses in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Asia, and Latin America. The company offers consumer care products across beauty care, beauty actives, and home care products, as well as fragrances and flavours. It also provides biologics drug delivery, crop protection, and seed coating systems and enhancement technologies to improve germination. In addition, the company offers industrial specialties, including phase change materials; surfactants, such as emulsifiers, dispersants, wetting agents, detergents, and polymerics; and formulated textile and spin finishes. Croda International Plc was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Goole, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.8% to 45.1% during 2023–25; it earns 20.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31/reports/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.3085519098918303],[2017,0.27564236433138206],[2018,0.23363741897864201],[2019,0.23442203289112282],[2020,0.1517665277602103],[2021,0.1988072853837037],[2022,0.21444010727956714],[2023,0.09233535931097712],[2024,0.0912335579082451],[2025,0.09666277376737628]]; median 0.2066236963316354. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 7.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2016: growth capex 54600000; upkeep 49200000; owner earnings 196700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2775800711743772.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2017: growth capex 54703536.16257018; upkeep 101096463.83742982; owner earnings 189203536.16257018. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28912533704215243.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2018: growth capex 6453021.769779816; upkeep 93746978.23022018; owner earnings 200953021.7697798. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03211209123878052.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 111000000; owner earnings 170600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2020: growth capex 7220366.161767587; upkeep 113979633.83823241; owner earnings 153080366.1617676. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04716716024926063.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2021: growth capex 45400000; upkeep 113300000; owner earnings 302700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14998348199537495.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2022: growth capex 31700000; upkeep 120700000; owner earnings 630880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05024727364950545.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 189000000; owner earnings 91200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 181800000; owner earnings 95720000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31/reports/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 117700000; owner earnings 65660000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,230200000],[2017,100000000],[2018,110500000],[2019,266900000],[2020,115900000],[2021,132500000],[2022,144400000],[2023,150700000],[2024,152200000],[2025,154900000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31/reports/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 7300000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CRDA.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.732 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.25194709593736964. Price 3589; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.0599508526612058 → FY2025 0.4596204596204596. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 3,498.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 3,262.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 3,196.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 3,348.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 3,508.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 3,564.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 3,764.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 3,963.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 3,885.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 3,701.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 3,842.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 3,793.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 4,184.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 4,273.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 4,424.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 4,484.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 4,622.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 4,568.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 4,461.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 4,662.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 4,802.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 5,140.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 5,100.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 5,202.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 4,820.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 4,876.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 4,685.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 4,821.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 4,811.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 5,038.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 5,181.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 5,070.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 5,120.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 4,688.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 4,702.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 4,860.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 4,816.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 4,980.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 5,120.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 4,984.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 4,554.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 4,272.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 4,882.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 5,190.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 5,256.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 5,730.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 5,900.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 6,250.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 6,034.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 5,956.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 6,596.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 6,286.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 6,168.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 6,348.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 6,764.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 6,988.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 7,368.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 8,420.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 9,148.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 8,544.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 9,458.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 10,115.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 10,120.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 7,972.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 7,484.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 7,880.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 7,804.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 6,910.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 6,472.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 7,482.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 6,726.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 6,446.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 6,760.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 6,794.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 6,604.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 6,886.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 6,562.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 6,498.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 6,980.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 6,100.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 5,626.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 5,890.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 5,522.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 4,915.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 4,378.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 4,484.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 5,050.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 4,805.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 4,766.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 4,902.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 4,610.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 4,540.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 3,948.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 4,042.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 4,107.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 4,217.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 3,705.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 3,450.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 3,385.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 3,344.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 3,304.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 2,923.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 2,951.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 3,068.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 2,924.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 2,612.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 2,508.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,704.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 2,887.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,722.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 2,695.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 2,728.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 3,094.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 2,815.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 2,849.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 3,041.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 3,024.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 3,205.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 3,459.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 3,333.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 3,589.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 1,847.79 per share, central GBX 2,683.01 per share, high GBX 3,148.85 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 1,696.27 per share, central GBX 1,929.57 per share, high GBX 2,240.36 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,921.81 per share, central GBX 2,452.13 per share, high GBX 2,861.62 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 1,978.67 per share, central GBX 2,598.49 per share, high GBX 3,035.04 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,767.47 per share, central GBX 2,066.34 per share, high GBX 2,397.41 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 2,305.35 per share, central GBX 2,782.92 per share, high GBX 3,237.55 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 3,357.12 per share, central GBX 4,805.42 per share, high GBX 5,613.19 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 1,740.24 per share, central GBX 1,966.51 per share, high GBX 2,267.72 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,497.96 per share, central GBX 1,691.26 per share, high GBX 1,948.57 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 861.61 per share, central GBX 967.01 per share, high GBX 1,107.32 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:40.678Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31/reports/2138004WCNBFJEEOXV26-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Croda International

CRDA · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 3,589.00
Buy up to: GBX 991.32
Expected / yr: 4.7% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 20.1% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 22.8%
Worst year: 14.0%
Latest · 2025: 14.3%

The second-worst year 9.2% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 20.7%
Worst year: 9.1%
Latest · 2025: 9.7%

New investment earned -2.1% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.87×
Annual median: 0.94×
Latest · 2025: 1.06×

Per-share value fell from 1.48 to 1.13, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 1% over ten years and 1.6% over five (either must be at most 1% a year), and acquisitions used 74.8% of profits (limit 50%) while returns fell to 9.2% (minimum 15% and two-thirds of their starting level).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 1.63
Worst year: GBP 0.43
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.43

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -6.7% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.5%
Worst year: 9.4%
Latest · 2025: -6.7%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 20.6%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.6 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 3498.00 · Value 2683.01 · Buy at or below 2683.01; 2016-11 · Price GBX 3262.00 · Value 2683.01 · Buy at or below 2683.01; 2016-12 · Price GBX 3196.00 · Value 2683.01 · Buy at or below 2683.01; 2017-01 · Price GBX 3348.00 · Value 2683.01 · Buy at or below 2683.01; 2017-02 · Price GBX 3508.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-03 · Price GBX 3564.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-04 · Price GBX 3764.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-05 · Price GBX 3963.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-06 · Price GBX 3885.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-07 · Price GBX 3701.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-08 · Price GBX 3842.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-09 · Price GBX 3793.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-10 · Price GBX 4184.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-11 · Price GBX 4273.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2017-12 · Price GBX 4424.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2018-01 · Price GBX 4484.00 · Value 1929.57 · Buy at or below 1929.57; 2018-02 · Price GBX 4622.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-03 · Price GBX 4568.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-04 · Price GBX 4461.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-05 · Price GBX 4662.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-06 · Price GBX 4802.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-07 · Price GBX 5140.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-08 · Price GBX 5100.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-09 · Price GBX 5202.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-10 · Price GBX 4820.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-11 · Price GBX 4876.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2018-12 · Price GBX 4685.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2019-01 · Price GBX 4821.00 · Value 2452.13 · Buy at or below 2452.13; 2019-02 · Price GBX 4811.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-03 · Price GBX 5038.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-04 · Price GBX 5181.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-05 · Price GBX 5070.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-06 · Price GBX 5120.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-07 · Price GBX 4688.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-08 · Price GBX 4702.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-09 · Price GBX 4860.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-10 · Price GBX 4816.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-11 · Price GBX 4980.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2019-12 · Price GBX 5120.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2020-01 · Price GBX 4984.00 · Value 2598.49 · Buy at or below 2598.49; 2020-02 · Price GBX 4554.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-03 · Price GBX 4272.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-04 · Price GBX 4882.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-05 · Price GBX 5190.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-06 · Price GBX 5256.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-07 · Price GBX 5730.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-08 · Price GBX 5900.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-09 · Price GBX 6250.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-10 · Price GBX 6034.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-11 · Price GBX 5956.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2020-12 · Price GBX 6596.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2021-01 · Price GBX 6286.00 · Value 2066.34 · Buy at or below 2066.34; 2021-02 · Price GBX 6168.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-03 · Price GBX 6348.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-04 · Price GBX 6764.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-05 · Price GBX 6988.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-06 · Price GBX 7368.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-07 · Price GBX 8420.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-08 · Price GBX 9148.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-09 · Price GBX 8544.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-10 · Price GBX 9458.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-11 · Price GBX 10115.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2021-12 · Price GBX 10120.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2022-01 · Price GBX 7972.00 · Value 2782.92 · Buy at or below 2782.92; 2022-02 · Price GBX 7484.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-03 · Price GBX 7880.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-04 · Price GBX 7804.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-05 · Price GBX 6910.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-06 · Price GBX 6472.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-07 · Price GBX 7482.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-08 · Price GBX 6726.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-09 · Price GBX 6446.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-10 · Price GBX 6760.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-11 · Price GBX 6794.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2022-12 · Price GBX 6604.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2023-01 · Price GBX 6886.00 · Value 4805.42 · Buy at or below 4805.42; 2023-02 · Price GBX 6562.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-03 · Price GBX 6498.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-04 · Price GBX 6980.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-05 · Price GBX 6100.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-06 · Price GBX 5626.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-07 · Price GBX 5890.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-08 · Price GBX 5522.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-09 · Price GBX 4915.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-10 · Price GBX 4378.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-11 · Price GBX 4484.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2023-12 · Price GBX 5050.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2024-01 · Price GBX 4805.00 · Value 1966.51 · Buy at or below 1966.51; 2024-02 · Price GBX 4766.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-03 · Price GBX 4902.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-04 · Price GBX 4610.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-05 · Price GBX 4540.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-06 · Price GBX 3948.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-07 · Price GBX 4042.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-08 · Price GBX 4107.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-09 · Price GBX 4217.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-10 · Price GBX 3705.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-11 · Price GBX 3450.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2024-12 · Price GBX 3385.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2025-01 · Price GBX 3344.00 · Value 1691.26 · Buy at or below 1691.26; 2025-02 · Price GBX 3304.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-03 · Price GBX 2923.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-04 · Price GBX 2951.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-05 · Price GBX 3068.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-06 · Price GBX 2924.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-07 · Price GBX 2612.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-08 · Price GBX 2508.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-09 · Price GBX 2704.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-10 · Price GBX 2887.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-11 · Price GBX 2722.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2025-12 · Price GBX 2695.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2026-01 · Price GBX 2728.00 · Value 967.01 · Buy at or below 967.01; 2026-02 · Price GBX 3094.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-03 · Price GBX 2815.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-04 · Price GBX 2849.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-05 · Price GBX 3041.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-06 · Price GBX 3024.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-07 · Price GBX 3205.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-08 · Price GBX 3459.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-09 · Price GBX 3333.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-10 · Price GBX 3589.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32; 2026-10 · Price GBX 3589.00 · Value 991.32 · Buy at or below 991.32

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 883.27 – GBX 1,135.16
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 991.32
Discount to value	1 − 3589.00 / 991.32 = -262.0%
Return / year	About 4.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 71.70/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 99.61/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 1.7B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 66M

Owner earnings

Operating margin14.3%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -524M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares143M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·