# Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CRDO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:43.340Z. Financial observations: FY2020–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $178.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 3.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: -0.43×

- FY2022: -0.21×

- FY2023: -0.12×

- FY2024: -0.19×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- FY2026: 0.33×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -11.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -20.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 64.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 64.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -19.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: 8.8%

- FY2021: -51.4%

- FY2022: -18.9%

- FY2023: -11.5%

- FY2024: -20.3%

- FY2025: 13.6%

- FY2026: 79.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $457M

- Net income, five-year total: $457M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 103.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -18.9% vs 13.6%

- Per-share earnings: -0.19 to 0.29 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.48

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.19

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.29

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: -18.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: $0.02

- FY2021: -$0.19

- FY2022: -$0.25

- FY2023: -$0.11

- FY2024: -$0.18

- FY2025: $0.29

- FY2026: $2.51

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 0.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.47×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 39.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.98×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: 10.7%

- FY2021: 9.6%

- FY2022: 2.3%

- FY2023: 2.0%

- FY2024: -10.2%

- FY2025: -1.6%

- FY2026: 0.3%

## Holders

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 34% since Jun 2026 · "Credo Technology Beats Quarterly Targets But Gross Margins Dip" (finance.yahoo.com, Jun 2026) · sales +205.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:34.138Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-06-03: Credo expects over 85% revenue growth for fiscal 2026 with new hyperscaler ramps ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4454654-credo-expects-over-85-percent-revenue-growth-for-fiscal-2026-with-new-hyperscaler-ramps?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-08-09: Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO) Projects Revenue Surge For Fiscal 2026 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credo-technology-group-holding-crdo-172954366.html))

- 2025-09-30: Credo Technology to acquire Hyperlume to boost high-speed connectivity growth ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4500147-credo-technology-to-acquire-hyperlume-to-boost-high-speed-connectivity-growth?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-23: Credo (CRDO) Is Up 12.6% After DustPhotonics Deal And New AI Connectivity Platform Push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/credo-crdo-12-6-dustphotonics-042850418.html))

- 2026-05-21: AI Factory Partnership With Rebellions Sends Credo's Shares Up 8% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ai-factory-partnership-rebellions-sends-132500530.html))

- 2026-06-02: Credo signals 80%+ fiscal 2027 revenue growth, with $600m+ expected from optical portfolio ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4599516-credo-signals-80-percent-fiscal-2027-revenue-growth-with-600m-expected-from-optical-portfolio?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +205.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1807794/000162828026043303/crdo-20260502.htm; observed 2026-06-15.

- FY2020: $54M 

- FY2021: $59M 

- FY2022: $106M 

- FY2023: $184M 

- FY2024: $193M 

- FY2025: $437M 

- FY2026: $1.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 68%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1807794/000162828026043303/crdo-20260502.htm; observed 2026-06-15.

- FY2020: 85.6% 

- FY2021: 65.2% 

- FY2022: 60.1% 

- FY2023: 57.7% 

- FY2024: 61.9% 

- FY2025: 64.8% 

- FY2026: 68.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 1.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1807794/000162828026043303/crdo-20260502.htm (filed 2026-06-15); FY2026: revenue 1335116000; grossProfit 908349000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 61.9% to 68% during 2024–26; it lost 11.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 61.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 64.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1807794/000162828026043303/crdo-20260502.htm (filed 2026-06-15); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 68%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); 7-year return on capital observations [[2020,0.08797790994052676],[2021,-0.5140897954973309],[2022,-0.1885788175466429],[2023,-0.11543699207971209],[2024,-0.20320693556559705],[2025,0.1357083200736422],[2026,0.7994035877476849]]; median -0.11543699207971209. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 4.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2025: growth capex 14123000; upkeep 21938000; owner earnings 52183000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.27064369622290785.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1807794/000162828026043303/crdo-20260502.htm (filed 2026-06-15); FY2026: growth capex 22659000; upkeep 34637000; owner earnings 472279000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04797799605741521.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); Incremental return on capital 1.0333371200959556, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); Dividend observations: [[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1807794/000162828026043303/crdo-20260502.htm (filed 2026-06-15); FY2026: cash repurchases 19157000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 9.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CRDO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 9.146 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 25.2 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); Closing price 178.5 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2026 annual sales per share 7.092927876237834; price multiple 25.16591217542146. FY2026 cash earnings/share 2.5090260954566705. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2022-01: $12.12 per share

- 2022-02: $16.90 per share

- 2022-03: $15.23 per share

- 2022-04: $11.04 per share

- 2022-05: $10.23 per share

- 2022-06: $11.68 per share

- 2022-07: $16.05 per share

- 2022-08: $13.79 per share

- 2022-09: $11.00 per share

- 2022-10: $13.74 per share

- 2022-11: $13.93 per share

- 2022-12: $13.31 per share

- 2023-01: $17.33 per share

- 2023-02: $10.61 per share

- 2023-03: $9.42 per share

- 2023-04: $8.11 per share

- 2023-05: $13.42 per share

- 2023-06: $17.34 per share

- 2023-07: $16.97 per share

- 2023-08: $16.46 per share

- 2023-09: $15.25 per share

- 2023-10: $14.22 per share

- 2023-11: $17.91 per share

- 2023-12: $19.47 per share

- 2024-01: $20.51 per share

- 2024-02: $21.54 per share

- 2024-03: $21.19 per share

- 2024-04: $17.87 per share

- 2024-05: $26.07 per share

- 2024-06: $31.94 per share

- 2024-07: $27.75 per share

- 2024-08: $34.91 per share

- 2024-09: $30.80 per share

- 2024-10: $37.70 per share

- 2024-11: $48.96 per share

- 2024-12: $67.21 per share

- 2025-01: $70.02 per share

- 2025-02: $55.18 per share

- 2025-03: $40.16 per share

- 2025-04: $43.05 per share

- 2025-05: $60.96 per share

- 2025-06: $92.59 per share

- 2025-07: $111.55 per share

- 2025-08: $123.06 per share

- 2025-09: $145.61 per share

- 2025-10: $187.62 per share

- 2025-11: $177.60 per share

- 2025-12: $143.89 per share

- 2026-01: $125.28 per share

- 2026-02: $112.27 per share

- 2026-03: $93.87 per share

- 2026-04: $174.01 per share

- 2026-05: $236.03 per share

- 2026-06: $271.95 per share

- 2026-07: $206.99 per share

- 2026-08: $226.19 per share

- 2026-09: $194.79 per share

- 2026-10: $198.31 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1807794/000162828026043303/crdo-20260502.htm); period 2026-05-02, filed 2026-06-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.