# Crescent Energy (CRGY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CRGY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:43.422Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $12.51 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $2.76 per share, central $3.06 per share, high $3.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value $3.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:43.422Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.4% at the stated quote. About 4.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.89×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.31×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: -0.50×

- FY2021: 0.33×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 55.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 55.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 78.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 22.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 41.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 7.9%

- FY2020: -8.5%

- FY2021: 24.4%

- FY2022: 25.8%

- FY2023: 8.7%

- FY2024: 2.8%

- FY2025: 3.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.29×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $47M

- Net income, five-year total: $163M

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.5 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -1.17×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -1.34×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 1.11 to 0.41 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 50.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 50.1%

- Per-share value growth: -18.3%

- Per-share value change: -$0.71

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.41

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: $10.73

- FY2019: $1.11

- FY2020: -$5.01

- FY2021: -$0.18

- FY2022: $0.58

- FY2023: $0.55

- FY2024: -$0.49

- FY2025: $0.41

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -12.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.12×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 14.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 12.64×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -11.0%

- FY2020: -16.1%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: -15.2%

- FY2023: -12.8%

- FY2024: -14.6%

- FY2025: -12.4%

## Holders

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 31% since May 2022 · "Crescent Energy (CRGY): Valuation in Focus After EPS Outlook Slashed Despite Rising Revenue" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2025) · sales +22.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:34.163Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 20.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-04: Crescent Energy shares jump on Q2 earnings beat, increased free cash flow ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/crescent-energy-shares-jump-on-q2-earnings-beat-increased-free-cash-flow-93CH-4168949))

- 2025-09-11: Crescent Energy (CRGY): Valuation in Focus After EPS Outlook Slashed Despite Rising Revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crescent-energy-crgy-valuation-focus-120212595.html))

- 2025-11-12: Crescent Energy (CRGY) Rallies for 5th Day on Higher Oil, Gas Prices, Upcoming Dividend ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crescent-energy-crgy-rallies-5th-120113531.html))

- 2026-03-04: Why Crescent Energy (CRGY) Is Up 8.8% After Refinancing Costly Debt With Convertible Notes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-crescent-energy-crgy-8-140949284.html))

- 2026-08-24: CRGY Raises 2026 Outlook as Permian Synergies Expand Free Cash Flow ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/crgy-raises-2026-outlook-permian-160400099.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +22.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866175/000186617526000026/crgy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2018: $1.2B 

- FY2019: $1.1B 

- FY2020: $754M 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $3.1B 

- FY2023: $2.4B 

- FY2024: $2.9B 

- FY2025: $3.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 22.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866175/000186617526000026/crgy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2018: 79.5% 

- FY2019: 76.5% 

- FY2020: 73.2% 

- FY2021: 83.5% 

- FY2022: 85.6% 

- FY2023: 54.7% 

- FY2024: 82.0% 

- FY2025: 22.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 3.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866175/000186617526000026/crgy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 3579782000; grossProfit 808453000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.6% to 82% during 2023–25; it earns 7.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 54.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 82%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866175/000186617526000026/crgy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 22.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.07929083234363189],[2020,-0.08543596010562625],[2021,0.24374867889724516],[2022,0.25808297005877395],[2023,0.08737982480764685],[2024,0.028150147621717168],[2025,0.03616691583574938]]; median 0.07929083234363189. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years; bought back USD 38.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 338646000; owner earnings 19248000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 126164000; owner earnings 30012000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 270683000; owner earnings 22728000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 686401000; upkeep 532926000; owner earnings 96674000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 7.100161367068705.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866175/000186617526000026/crgy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 603006000; upkeep 1166902000; owner earnings 132906000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.537086361789536.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2018,172765000],[2019,124837000],[2020,61422000],[2021,35331000],[2022,27509000],[2023,34120000],[2024,65075000],[2025,115121000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866175/000186617526000026/crgy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 38623000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CRGY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 20.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2901336318878506. Price 12.51; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-12: $12.68 per share

- 2022-01: $13.27 per share

- 2022-02: $15.15 per share

- 2022-03: $17.34 per share

- 2022-04: $15.71 per share

- 2022-05: $18.07 per share

- 2022-06: $12.48 per share

- 2022-07: $14.60 per share

- 2022-08: $17.13 per share

- 2022-09: $13.47 per share

- 2022-10: $13.78 per share

- 2022-11: $14.05 per share

- 2022-12: $11.99 per share

- 2023-01: $12.06 per share

- 2023-02: $11.54 per share

- 2023-03: $11.31 per share

- 2023-04: $11.62 per share

- 2023-05: $9.41 per share

- 2023-06: $10.42 per share

- 2023-07: $11.87 per share

- 2023-08: $13.63 per share

- 2023-09: $12.64 per share

- 2023-10: $12.18 per share

- 2023-11: $11.40 per share

- 2023-12: $13.21 per share

- 2024-01: $11.05 per share

- 2024-02: $11.18 per share

- 2024-03: $11.90 per share

- 2024-04: $10.64 per share

- 2024-05: $12.60 per share

- 2024-06: $11.85 per share

- 2024-07: $12.23 per share

- 2024-08: $11.93 per share

- 2024-09: $10.95 per share

- 2024-10: $12.43 per share

- 2024-11: $14.87 per share

- 2024-12: $14.61 per share

- 2025-01: $15.06 per share

- 2025-02: $12.62 per share

- 2025-03: $11.24 per share

- 2025-04: $8.28 per share

- 2025-05: $8.39 per share

- 2025-06: $8.60 per share

- 2025-07: $9.24 per share

- 2025-08: $9.54 per share

- 2025-09: $8.92 per share

- 2025-10: $8.43 per share

- 2025-11: $9.43 per share

- 2025-12: $8.39 per share

- 2026-01: $9.77 per share

- 2026-02: $11.66 per share

- 2026-03: $13.50 per share

- 2026-04: $13.45 per share

- 2026-05: $11.56 per share

- 2026-06: $9.82 per share

- 2026-07: $11.47 per share

- 2026-08: $13.69 per share

- 2026-09: $12.89 per share

- 2026-10: $12.51 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $3.54 per share, central $4.03 per share, high $4.68 per share

- FY2023: low $3.74 per share, central $4.26 per share, high $4.94 per share

- FY2024: low $2.32 per share, central $2.61 per share, high $2.99 per share

- FY2025: low $1.84 per share, central $2.09 per share, high $2.43 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866175/000186617526000026/crgy-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.