# Crocs (CROX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CROX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:45.682Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $124.77 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $207.77 per share, central $265.19 per share, high $309.56 per share. Buy at or below the central value $265.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:45.682Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.8% at the stated quote. About 17.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.76×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.30×

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.25×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 32.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 53.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 58.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 24.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.9%

- FY2017: 5.8%

- FY2018: 33.1%

- FY2019: 31.1%

- FY2020: 40.8%

- FY2021: 89.5%

- FY2022: 25.5%

- FY2023: 36.6%

- FY2024: 38.6%

- FY2025: 4.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 47.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.65×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.8% vs 36.6%

- Per-share earnings: -0.22 to 12.79 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.6%

- Market cap gain: $3.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $13.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.22

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.79

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.08

- Average buyback yield: 6.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 36.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.22

- FY2017: $0.14

- FY2018: $0.74

- FY2019: $1.66

- FY2020: $4.56

- FY2021: $11.39

- FY2022: $8.71

- FY2023: $12.79

- FY2024: $15.88

- FY2025: -$1.50

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -19.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.19×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.34×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.9%

- FY2017: -16.2%

- FY2018: -13.6%

- FY2019: 4.0%

- FY2020: 4.1%

- FY2021: 10.3%

- FY2022: -1.4%

- FY2023: -3.0%

- FY2024: -0.9%

- FY2025: -19.0%

## Holders

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Li Lu](https://gigainvestors.com/HC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Norbert Lou](https://gigainvestors.com/PC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 24% since Nov 2021 · "How Softening North American Clog Demand and Cost Pressures Will Impact Crocs (CROX) Investors" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales -1.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:34.674Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 5.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-07: Crocs stock falls after cautious third-quarter guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crocs-stock-falls-cautious-third-113621186.html))

- 2026-02-12: Crocs rallies after Q4 results surpass estimates, strong 2026 outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crocs-rallies-q4-results-surpass-124304418.html))

- 2026-04-30: Crocs, Inc. Reports Better-Than-Expected First Quarter 2026 Results And Raises Full-Year Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/crocs-inc-reports-better-expected-110000723.html))

- 2026-05-02: CROX Q1 Deep Dive: New Product Momentum and International Growth Shape Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/crox-q1-deep-dive-product-214855800.html))

- 2026-07-30: Crocs Issues Downbeat Third-Quarter Earnings Outlook Following Second-Quarter Beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/crocs-issues-downbeat-third-quarter-180931247.html))

- 2026-08-09: Crocs (CROX) Stock Could Be 34% Undervalued After Weak Q3 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/crocs-crox-stock-could-34-111405328.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334036/000133403626000006/crox-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: $1.0B 

- FY2017: $1.0B 

- FY2018: $1.1B 

- FY2019: $1.2B 

- FY2020: $1.4B 

- FY2021: $2.3B 

- FY2022: $3.6B 

- FY2023: $4.0B 

- FY2024: $4.1B 

- FY2025: $4.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 58.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334036/000133403626000006/crox-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 48.3% 

- FY2017: 50.5% 

- FY2018: 51.5% 

- FY2019: 50.1% 

- FY2020: 54.1% 

- FY2021: 61.4% 

- FY2022: 52.3% 

- FY2023: 55.0% 

- FY2024: 58.8% 

- FY2025: 58.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in footwear & accessories; annual sales are USD 4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334036/000133403626000006/crox-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 4040647000; grossProfit 2357055000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CROX.US: Crocs, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for men, women, and kids under the Crocs and HEYDUDE Brands in the United States and internationally. The company offers various footwear products, including clogs, sandals, loafers, classics, fuzz, platforms, boots, sandals, slides, slippers, sneakers, flip flops, and flats, as well as totes, backpacks, belt bags, socks, bag charms, cases, attachments, cartoon characters products, and touchland and other accessories. It sells its products through wholesalers, retail stores, e-commerce sites, third-party marketplaces, outlet stores, and kiosks/store-in-store locations. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55% to 58.8% during 2023–25; it earns 32.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 55%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 58.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334036/000133403626000006/crox-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 58.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.019440185858295045],[2017,0.058381257318122],[2018,0.33132022173744186],[2019,0.3105161148616847],[2020,0.40782804955860086],[2021,0.8954939766301904],[2022,0.2551737428011535],[2023,0.365530233117757],[2024,0.3863481700926863],[2025,0.040970111155188525]]; median 0.32091816829956327. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 582.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 13117000; owner earnings 30251000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 11979000; owner earnings 67708000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 9373845.41900485; upkeep 27202154.58099515; owner earnings 116507845.41900486. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08045677426522713.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 13859509.483582214; upkeep 28173490.516417786; owner earnings 312306509.4835822. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04437790780121668.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 23940000; upkeep 31976000; owner earnings 725694000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03298911111294843.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 64961000; upkeep 39229000; owner earnings 540159000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12026273745323136.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 58371003.01207485; upkeep 57253996.98792515; owner earnings 789616003.0120748. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07392327763040821.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 69347000; owner earnings 950564000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,12000000],[2017,12000000],[2018,21015000],[2019,2985000],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334036/000133403626000006/crox-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 582320000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CROX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.1029999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 5.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09450816808298318. Price 124.77; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.8688825988042961 → FY2025 -0.9804272432113341. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $7.69 per share

- 2016-11: $7.00 per share

- 2016-12: $6.86 per share

- 2017-01: $7.30 per share

- 2017-02: $6.65 per share

- 2017-03: $7.07 per share

- 2017-04: $6.23 per share

- 2017-05: $6.83 per share

- 2017-06: $7.71 per share

- 2017-07: $7.94 per share

- 2017-08: $8.93 per share

- 2017-09: $9.70 per share

- 2017-10: $10.20 per share

- 2017-11: $10.93 per share

- 2017-12: $12.64 per share

- 2018-01: $13.51 per share

- 2018-02: $12.24 per share

- 2018-03: $16.25 per share

- 2018-04: $15.80 per share

- 2018-05: $17.84 per share

- 2018-06: $17.61 per share

- 2018-07: $18.11 per share

- 2018-08: $20.66 per share

- 2018-09: $21.29 per share

- 2018-10: $20.54 per share

- 2018-11: $27.80 per share

- 2018-12: $25.98 per share

- 2019-01: $28.72 per share

- 2019-02: $25.68 per share

- 2019-03: $25.75 per share

- 2019-04: $27.85 per share

- 2019-05: $19.32 per share

- 2019-06: $19.75 per share

- 2019-07: $22.85 per share

- 2019-08: $22.30 per share

- 2019-09: $27.76 per share

- 2019-10: $34.99 per share

- 2019-11: $34.90 per share

- 2019-12: $41.89 per share

- 2020-01: $37.91 per share

- 2020-02: $26.17 per share

- 2020-03: $16.99 per share

- 2020-04: $24.25 per share

- 2020-05: $28.65 per share

- 2020-06: $36.82 per share

- 2020-07: $35.94 per share

- 2020-08: $39.91 per share

- 2020-09: $42.73 per share

- 2020-10: $52.33 per share

- 2020-11: $58.89 per share

- 2020-12: $62.66 per share

- 2021-01: $70.02 per share

- 2021-02: $76.72 per share

- 2021-03: $80.45 per share

- 2021-04: $100.12 per share

- 2021-05: $101.24 per share

- 2021-06: $116.52 per share

- 2021-07: $135.81 per share

- 2021-08: $142.82 per share

- 2021-09: $143.48 per share

- 2021-10: $161.45 per share

- 2021-11: $164.02 per share

- 2021-12: $128.22 per share

- 2022-01: $102.62 per share

- 2022-02: $83.73 per share

- 2022-03: $76.40 per share

- 2022-04: $66.43 per share

- 2022-05: $55.76 per share

- 2022-06: $48.67 per share

- 2022-07: $71.64 per share

- 2022-08: $73.70 per share

- 2022-09: $68.66 per share

- 2022-10: $70.75 per share

- 2022-11: $101.00 per share

- 2022-12: $108.43 per share

- 2023-01: $121.77 per share

- 2023-02: $121.71 per share

- 2023-03: $126.44 per share

- 2023-04: $123.67 per share

- 2023-05: $112.28 per share

- 2023-06: $112.44 per share

- 2023-07: $108.35 per share

- 2023-08: $97.34 per share

- 2023-09: $88.23 per share

- 2023-10: $89.32 per share

- 2023-11: $105.61 per share

- 2023-12: $93.41 per share

- 2024-01: $101.48 per share

- 2024-02: $122.25 per share

- 2024-03: $143.80 per share

- 2024-04: $124.37 per share

- 2024-05: $155.64 per share

- 2024-06: $145.94 per share

- 2024-07: $134.37 per share

- 2024-08: $146.17 per share

- 2024-09: $144.81 per share

- 2024-10: $107.82 per share

- 2024-11: $105.60 per share

- 2024-12: $109.53 per share

- 2025-01: $102.07 per share

- 2025-02: $99.57 per share

- 2025-03: $106.20 per share

- 2025-04: $96.42 per share

- 2025-05: $102.00 per share

- 2025-06: $101.28 per share

- 2025-07: $99.73 per share

- 2025-08: $87.20 per share

- 2025-09: $83.55 per share

- 2025-10: $81.69 per share

- 2025-11: $84.98 per share

- 2025-12: $85.52 per share

- 2026-01: $83.92 per share

- 2026-02: $90.71 per share

- 2026-03: $83.02 per share

- 2026-04: $101.98 per share

- 2026-05: $118.67 per share

- 2026-06: $120.64 per share

- 2026-07: $128.01 per share

- 2026-08: $120.38 per share

- 2026-09: $117.31 per share

- 2026-10: $124.77 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $8.01 per share, central $10.85 per share, high $12.54 per share

- FY2020: low $18.67 per share, central $25.95 per share, high $30.20 per share

- FY2021: low $49.35 per share, central $69.38 per share, high $81.04 per share

- FY2022: low $115.06 per share, central $156.06 per share, high $182.58 per share

- FY2023: low $168.61 per share, central $232.14 per share, high $272.05 per share

- FY2024: low $207.92 per share, central $290.90 per share, high $341.14 per share

- FY2025: low $182.39 per share, central $233.01 per share, high $272.11 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:26.121Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334036/000133403626000006/crox-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.