# CSX (CSX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CSX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:47.937Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $48.69 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $18.39 per share, central $20.85 per share, high $24.12 per share. Buy at or below the central value $20.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:47.937Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.9% at the stated quote. About 5.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.08×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.33×

- FY2018: 0.38×

- FY2019: 0.40×

- FY2020: 0.41×

- FY2021: 0.41×

- FY2022: 0.40×

- FY2023: 0.37×

- FY2024: 0.37×

- FY2025: 0.32×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.34×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- Recent gross margin fell 5.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 15.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.7%

- FY2017: 14.4%

- FY2018: 13.6%

- FY2019: 13.8%

- FY2020: 12.2%

- FY2021: 14.2%

- FY2022: 15.9%

- FY2023: 14.2%

- FY2024: 13.5%

- FY2025: 10.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.83×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $15B

- Net income, five-year total: $18B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 16.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.83×

- FY2024: 0.76×

- FY2025: 0.44×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.6% vs 13.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.67 to 1.79 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.1%

- Market cap gain: $33B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$693M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 13.0%

- Per-share value change: $1.11

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.67

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.79

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.83

- Average buyback yield: 4.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $506M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $35B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.60

- FY2017: $1.99

- FY2018: $1.28

- FY2019: $1.39

- FY2020: $1.20

- FY2021: $1.68

- FY2022: $1.92

- FY2023: $1.82

- FY2024: $1.79

- FY2025: $1.54

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.60×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.7%

- FY2017: 5.6%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -4.0%

- FY2020: -3.8%

- FY2021: -3.3%

- FY2022: -3.6%

- FY2023: -4.4%

- FY2024: -4.2%

- FY2025: -3.9%

## Holders

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.8% a year for ten years · "Higher Freight Volumes Boost CSX Shares Over 42% in a Year" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:35.158Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-22: CSX Corporation. (CSX) Sees Growth as 600+ New Projects Ride Domestic Manufacturing Wave ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/csx-corporation-csx-sees-growth-224425558.html))

- 2025-07-25: CSX Q2 Deep Dive: Service Recovery and Network Upgrades Drive Sequential Improvement ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/csx-q2-deep-dive-recovery-132827458.html))

- 2025-09-26: CSX Reopens Expanded Howard Street Tunnel Ahead of Schedule, Strengthening East Coast Freight Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/csx-reopens-expanded-howard-street-150000017.html))

- 2026-02-24: CSX CEO: Flat industrial results holding back railroad freight growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/csx-ceo-flat-industrial-results-180800177.html))

- 2026-04-23: CSX sees stronger first-quarter earnings as costs fall, volume rises ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/csx-sees-stronger-first-quarter-033354188.html))

- 2026-07-23: CSX boosts outlook on higher volume and revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/csx-boosts-outlook-higher-volume-090000623.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $11B 

- FY2018: $12B 

- FY2019: $12B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $15B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $15B 

- FY2025: $14B 

- FY2026: $15B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 33.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 30.5% 

- FY2017: 33.9% 

- FY2018: 38.7% 

- FY2019: 40.6% 

- FY2020: 42.0% 

- FY2021: 42.2% 

- FY2022: 38.5% 

- FY2023: 38.2% 

- FY2024: 37.9% 

- FY2025: 33.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in railroads; annual sales are USD 14.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 14092000000; grossProfit 4685000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CSX.US: CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It also transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, minerals, automotive, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. In addition, the company provides intermodal services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 20,000 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns 3400 locomotives. It serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.2% to 38.2% during 2023–25; it earns 13.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 38.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09715577063550036],[2017,0.14388820638820637],[2018,0.13611034390231666],[2019,0.13779182652270672],[2020,0.12209462882643056],[2021,0.14196621121641845],[2022,0.15937754753672212],[2023,0.14200357276476108],[2024,0.13514794783106104],[2025,0.10912303651569147]]; median 0.1369510852125117. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"These decreases were partially offset by pricing gains in merchandise and higher intermodal volume." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); These decreases were partially offset by pricing gains in merchandise and higher intermodal volume.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.4 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2398000000; owner earnings 616000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 725000000; upkeep 1315000000; owner earnings 5470000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13254113345521024.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 414000000; upkeep 1331000000; owner earnings 3308000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12515114873035066.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1657000000; owner earnings 3023000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1626000000; owner earnings 2522000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 371000000; upkeep 1420000000; owner earnings 3781000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09812218989685269.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 631000000; upkeep 1502000000; owner earnings 4114000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1533787068546427.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2257000000; owner earnings 3047000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2529000000; owner earnings 2627000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2902000000; owner earnings 1263000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,680000000],[2017,708000000],[2018,751000000],[2019,763000000],[2020,797000000],[2021,839000000],[2022,852000000],[2023,882000000],[2024,930000000],[2025,972000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 1396000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CSX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.22200000000000003 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Global economic conditions could negatively affect demand for commodities and other freight." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Global economic conditions could negatively affect demand for commodities and other freight.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.15703650594104024. Price 48.69; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.21000342583076395 → FY2025 0.6743192738921516. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $10.17 per share

- 2016-11: $11.94 per share

- 2016-12: $11.98 per share

- 2017-01: $15.46 per share

- 2017-02: $16.19 per share

- 2017-03: $15.52 per share

- 2017-04: $16.95 per share

- 2017-05: $18.06 per share

- 2017-06: $18.19 per share

- 2017-07: $16.45 per share

- 2017-08: $16.73 per share

- 2017-09: $18.09 per share

- 2017-10: $16.81 per share

- 2017-11: $18.58 per share

- 2017-12: $18.34 per share

- 2018-01: $18.92 per share

- 2018-02: $17.91 per share

- 2018-03: $18.57 per share

- 2018-04: $19.80 per share

- 2018-05: $21.55 per share

- 2018-06: $21.26 per share

- 2018-07: $23.56 per share

- 2018-08: $24.72 per share

- 2018-09: $24.68 per share

- 2018-10: $22.95 per share

- 2018-11: $24.21 per share

- 2018-12: $20.71 per share

- 2019-01: $21.90 per share

- 2019-02: $24.22 per share

- 2019-03: $24.94 per share

- 2019-04: $26.54 per share

- 2019-05: $24.82 per share

- 2019-06: $25.79 per share

- 2019-07: $23.47 per share

- 2019-08: $22.34 per share

- 2019-09: $23.09 per share

- 2019-10: $23.42 per share

- 2019-11: $23.85 per share

- 2019-12: $24.12 per share

- 2020-01: $25.45 per share

- 2020-02: $23.48 per share

- 2020-03: $19.10 per share

- 2020-04: $22.08 per share

- 2020-05: $23.86 per share

- 2020-06: $23.25 per share

- 2020-07: $23.78 per share

- 2020-08: $25.49 per share

- 2020-09: $25.89 per share

- 2020-10: $26.31 per share

- 2020-11: $30.02 per share

- 2020-12: $30.25 per share

- 2021-01: $28.59 per share

- 2021-02: $30.52 per share

- 2021-03: $32.14 per share

- 2021-04: $33.58 per share

- 2021-05: $33.37 per share

- 2021-06: $32.08 per share

- 2021-07: $32.32 per share

- 2021-08: $32.53 per share

- 2021-09: $29.74 per share

- 2021-10: $36.17 per share

- 2021-11: $34.66 per share

- 2021-12: $37.60 per share

- 2022-01: $34.22 per share

- 2022-02: $33.91 per share

- 2022-03: $37.45 per share

- 2022-04: $34.34 per share

- 2022-05: $31.79 per share

- 2022-06: $29.06 per share

- 2022-07: $32.33 per share

- 2022-08: $31.65 per share

- 2022-09: $26.64 per share

- 2022-10: $29.06 per share

- 2022-11: $32.69 per share

- 2022-12: $30.98 per share

- 2023-01: $30.92 per share

- 2023-02: $30.49 per share

- 2023-03: $29.94 per share

- 2023-04: $30.64 per share

- 2023-05: $30.67 per share

- 2023-06: $34.10 per share

- 2023-07: $33.32 per share

- 2023-08: $30.20 per share

- 2023-09: $30.75 per share

- 2023-10: $29.85 per share

- 2023-11: $32.30 per share

- 2023-12: $34.67 per share

- 2024-01: $35.70 per share

- 2024-02: $37.94 per share

- 2024-03: $37.07 per share

- 2024-04: $33.22 per share

- 2024-05: $33.75 per share

- 2024-06: $33.45 per share

- 2024-07: $35.10 per share

- 2024-08: $34.27 per share

- 2024-09: $34.53 per share

- 2024-10: $33.64 per share

- 2024-11: $36.55 per share

- 2024-12: $32.27 per share

- 2025-01: $32.87 per share

- 2025-02: $32.01 per share

- 2025-03: $29.43 per share

- 2025-04: $28.07 per share

- 2025-05: $31.59 per share

- 2025-06: $32.63 per share

- 2025-07: $35.54 per share

- 2025-08: $32.51 per share

- 2025-09: $35.51 per share

- 2025-10: $36.02 per share

- 2025-11: $35.36 per share

- 2025-12: $36.25 per share

- 2026-01: $37.76 per share

- 2026-02: $42.69 per share

- 2026-03: $41.05 per share

- 2026-04: $45.43 per share

- 2026-05: $45.26 per share

- 2026-06: $47.53 per share

- 2026-07: $50.40 per share

- 2026-08: $50.51 per share

- 2026-09: $46.51 per share

- 2026-10: $47.76 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $2.65 per share, central $2.97 per share, high $3.41 per share

- FY2017: low $4.88 per share, central $5.54 per share, high $6.42 per share

- FY2018: low $9.16 per share, central $11.64 per share, high $13.55 per share

- FY2019: low $17.39 per share, central $23.83 per share, high $27.83 per share

- FY2020: low $13.98 per share, central $15.73 per share, high $18.06 per share

- FY2021: low $19.17 per share, central $24.18 per share, high $28.09 per share

- FY2022: low $24.89 per share, central $33.23 per share, high $38.78 per share

- FY2023: low $24.11 per share, central $32.09 per share, high $37.49 per share

- FY2024: low $22.65 per share, central $29.54 per share, high $34.49 per share

- FY2025: low $17.31 per share, central $19.66 per share, high $22.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:28.330Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000006/csx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.