# Citi Trends (CTRN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CTRN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:49.025Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $49.94 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $11.86 per share, central $12.85 per share, high $14.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value $12.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:49.025Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.2% at the stated quote. About 4.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 2.39×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.01×

- FY2024: -0.03×

- FY2025: -0.05×

- FY2026: -0.01×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -4.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 9.6%

- FY2018: 11.5%

- FY2019: 17.2%

- FY2020: 3.6%

- FY2021: 10.5%

- FY2022: 22.1%

- FY2023: 2.6%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -10.7%

- FY2026: -2.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.16×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $82M

- Net income, five-year total: $71M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.66×

- FY2025: 0.80×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.5% vs -4.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.03 to -1.46 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Market cap gain: $121M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $133M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: -$2.49

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.46

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.65

- Average buyback yield: 7.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $161M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -4.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.91

- FY2018: $1.03

- FY2019: $1.64

- FY2020: $1.41

- FY2021: $2.32

- FY2022: $6.91

- FY2023: $7.17

- FY2024: -$1.46

- FY2025: -$5.19

- FY2026: $0.63

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.35×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 25.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.02×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.9%

- FY2018: -8.5%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -5.7%

- FY2021: -17.6%

- FY2022: -2.5%

- FY2023: 9.8%

- FY2024: -0.5%

- FY2025: -8.5%

- FY2026: -3.3%

## Holders

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 47% since Dec 2021 · sales +6.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:35.422Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-26: Citi Trends Swings To Net Profit In Q2; Boosts FY25 Outlook ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/citi-trends-swings-net-profit-q2-boosts-fy25-outlook))

- 2026-01-12: Citi Trends Details Turnaround at Conference, Targets $45M EBITDA and 650 Stores by 2027 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-trends-details-turnaround-conference-163636987.html))

- 2026-06-02: Citi Trends Shares Gain After Strong Earnings Beat and Reaffirmed Outlook (CTRN) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/citi-trends-shares-gain-strong-135005558.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +6.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318484/000110465926043813/ctrn-20260131x10k.htm; observed 2026-04-15.

- FY2018: $755M 

- FY2019: $770M 

- FY2020: $782M 

- FY2021: $783M 

- FY2022: $992M 

- FY2023: $795M 

- FY2024: $748M 

- FY2025: $753M 

- FY2026: $820M 

- FY2027: $870M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 37.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318484/000110465926043813/ctrn-20260131x10k.htm; observed 2026-04-15.

- FY2017: 38.4% 

- FY2018: 38.3% 

- FY2019: 38.1% 

- FY2020: 38.0% 

- FY2021: 39.8% 

- FY2022: 41.1% 

- FY2023: 39.1% 

- FY2024: 38.1% 

- FY2025: 37.5% 

- FY2026: 37.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in apparel retail; annual sales are USD 820 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318484/000110465926043813/ctrn-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-04-15); FY2026: revenue 819962000; grossProfit 306160000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); CTRN.US: Citi Trends, Inc. operates as a value retailer of apparel, accessories, and home trends. The company offers apparel for juniors, missy, and plus size, including trend right sportswear, outerwear, sleepwear, lingerie, and scrubs for women; basics, fashion, and trends for boys up to size 20 and girls up to size 16, as well as sizes for newborns, infants, and toddlers; children's uniforms, accessories, and sleepwear; and apparel for men and big men, such as trend right sportswear and outerwear. It also provides fashionable handbags, luggage, hats, belts, sunglasses, jewelry, and watches for men and women; and underwear and socks for the entire family, as well as beauty and fragrance offerings for women and men. In addition, the company offers home goods for the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and decorative accessories; eclectic composition of wants and needs comprising books, food, tech products, team sports products, toys, health and beauty products, and seasonal items. Further, it provides casual and dress footwear in sizes for men, women, and children. The company was formerly known as Allied Fashion, Inc. and changed its name to Citi Trends, Inc. in 2001. Citi Trends, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Savannah, Georgia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.3% to 38.1% during 2024–26; it earns 6.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318484/000110465926043813/ctrn-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-04-15); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 37.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.09604737269267402],[2018,0.11473078264914525],[2019,0.17188724420073254],[2020,0.035962187148332984],[2021,0.1045531263530937],[2022,0.22111291631255475],[2023,0.02628421730460807],[2024,-0.0491558026176068],[2025,-0.10713083048919227],[2026,-0.02425144738210774]]; median 0.0660047799205035. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 41% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318484/000110465926043813/ctrn-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-04-15); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.39790423519138407],[2022,0.410986340189291],[2023,0.3911757195812385]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 35.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 6 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2017: growth capex 976694.1638372019; upkeep 22955305.836162798; owner earnings 7465694.163837202. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1308242934150952.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2018: growth capex 2103000; upkeep 18883000; owner earnings 14574000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14429806504734458.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 13256000; owner earnings 27004000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2020: growth capex 1520549.1510640532; upkeep 22654450.848935947; owner earnings 12383549.151064053. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12278783186590739.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 16956000; owner earnings 26281000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2022: growth capex 9314000; upkeep 20393000; owner earnings 62240000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.149646529562982.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 22287000; owner earnings 57200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318484/000110465926043813/ctrn-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-04-15); FY2026: growth capex 1848000; upkeep 18482000; owner earnings 5207000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3549068561551757.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); Dividend observations: [[2017,3513000],[2018,4232000],[2019,4207000],[2020,3765000],[2021,832000],[2022,1000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318484/000110465926043813/ctrn-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-04-15); FY2026: cash repurchases 6315000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 9.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); CTRN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 9.652 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 22.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.31899517412021117. Price 49.94; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.0313148557029315 → FY2026 0.6273425950802943. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $19.86 per share

- 2016-11: $17.36 per share

- 2016-12: $18.84 per share

- 2017-01: $16.05 per share

- 2017-02: $16.67 per share

- 2017-03: $17.00 per share

- 2017-04: $18.79 per share

- 2017-05: $18.25 per share

- 2017-06: $21.22 per share

- 2017-07: $22.15 per share

- 2017-08: $18.13 per share

- 2017-09: $19.87 per share

- 2017-10: $21.76 per share

- 2017-11: $25.79 per share

- 2017-12: $26.46 per share

- 2018-01: $23.51 per share

- 2018-02: $22.16 per share

- 2018-03: $30.91 per share

- 2018-04: $30.63 per share

- 2018-05: $30.01 per share

- 2018-06: $27.44 per share

- 2018-07: $28.41 per share

- 2018-08: $30.94 per share

- 2018-09: $28.77 per share

- 2018-10: $25.33 per share

- 2018-11: $20.50 per share

- 2018-12: $20.39 per share

- 2019-01: $20.49 per share

- 2019-02: $21.64 per share

- 2019-03: $19.31 per share

- 2019-04: $18.51 per share

- 2019-05: $13.68 per share

- 2019-06: $14.62 per share

- 2019-07: $15.35 per share

- 2019-08: $16.81 per share

- 2019-09: $18.30 per share

- 2019-10: $17.85 per share

- 2019-11: $20.53 per share

- 2019-12: $23.12 per share

- 2020-01: $23.29 per share

- 2020-02: $19.77 per share

- 2020-03: $8.90 per share

- 2020-04: $11.36 per share

- 2020-05: $16.24 per share

- 2020-06: $20.22 per share

- 2020-07: $17.22 per share

- 2020-08: $19.33 per share

- 2020-09: $24.98 per share

- 2020-10: $26.11 per share

- 2020-11: $33.89 per share

- 2020-12: $49.68 per share

- 2021-01: $59.00 per share

- 2021-02: $77.89 per share

- 2021-03: $83.78 per share

- 2021-04: $104.60 per share

- 2021-05: $83.34 per share

- 2021-06: $87.00 per share

- 2021-07: $79.75 per share

- 2021-08: $86.14 per share

- 2021-09: $72.96 per share

- 2021-10: $77.36 per share

- 2021-11: $84.80 per share

- 2021-12: $94.75 per share

- 2022-01: $48.72 per share

- 2022-02: $37.31 per share

- 2022-03: $30.63 per share

- 2022-04: $27.97 per share

- 2022-05: $29.88 per share

- 2022-06: $23.65 per share

- 2022-07: $24.58 per share

- 2022-08: $20.20 per share

- 2022-09: $15.51 per share

- 2022-10: $22.61 per share

- 2022-11: $30.22 per share

- 2022-12: $26.48 per share

- 2023-01: $31.48 per share

- 2023-02: $28.04 per share

- 2023-03: $19.02 per share

- 2023-04: $17.26 per share

- 2023-05: $14.62 per share

- 2023-06: $17.66 per share

- 2023-07: $18.85 per share

- 2023-08: $21.63 per share

- 2023-09: $22.22 per share

- 2023-10: $24.10 per share

- 2023-11: $23.88 per share

- 2023-12: $28.28 per share

- 2024-01: $26.93 per share

- 2024-02: $31.00 per share

- 2024-03: $27.13 per share

- 2024-04: $21.44 per share

- 2024-05: $24.43 per share

- 2024-06: $21.26 per share

- 2024-07: $19.61 per share

- 2024-08: $14.30 per share

- 2024-09: $18.37 per share

- 2024-10: $18.89 per share

- 2024-11: $19.95 per share

- 2024-12: $26.25 per share

- 2025-01: $25.90 per share

- 2025-02: $24.63 per share

- 2025-03: $22.14 per share

- 2025-04: $22.33 per share

- 2025-05: $26.48 per share

- 2025-06: $33.39 per share

- 2025-07: $30.52 per share

- 2025-08: $35.63 per share

- 2025-09: $31.03 per share

- 2025-10: $35.82 per share

- 2025-11: $45.29 per share

- 2025-12: $41.56 per share

- 2026-01: $43.15 per share

- 2026-02: $47.38 per share

- 2026-03: $43.32 per share

- 2026-04: $48.71 per share

- 2026-05: $46.01 per share

- 2026-06: $57.84 per share

- 2026-07: $66.67 per share

- 2026-08: $68.07 per share

- 2026-09: $51.56 per share

- 2026-10: $49.94 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $16.64 per share, central $18.24 per share, high $20.38 per share

- FY2018: low $18.50 per share, central $21.41 per share, high $24.18 per share

- FY2019: low $20.69 per share, central $25.75 per share, high $29.43 per share

- FY2020: low $16.82 per share, central $18.76 per share, high $21.35 per share

- FY2021: low $26.41 per share, central $28.62 per share, high $31.56 per share

- FY2022: low $43.67 per share, central $49.23 per share, high $56.64 per share

- FY2023: low $47.77 per share, central $52.89 per share, high $59.70 per share

- FY2024: low $41.24 per share, central $45.84 per share, high $51.96 per share

- FY2025: low $38.75 per share, central $43.33 per share, high $49.43 per share

- FY2026: low $12.84 per share, central $13.79 per share, high $15.05 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318484/000110465926043813/ctrn-20260131x10k.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-04-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.