# Corteva (CTVA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CTVA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:49.483Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $12.88 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $31.62 per share, central $35.56 per share, high $40.81 per share. Buy at or below the central value $35.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:49.483Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 27.3% at the stated quote. About 27.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.76×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.01×

- FY2018: -0.03×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.15×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 40.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: 0.2%

- FY2018: -1.8%

- FY2019: 3.7%

- FY2020: 7.1%

- FY2021: 8.6%

- FY2022: 12.3%

- FY2023: 5.7%

- FY2024: 11.0%

- FY2025: 15.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.56×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $8.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 60.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 44.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.38×

- FY2022: 1.54×

- FY2023: 1.84×

- FY2024: 1.69×

- FY2025: 1.56×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.2% vs 11.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.67 to 1.30 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Per-share value growth: 9.9%

- Per-share value change: $0.63

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.67

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.30

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.71

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.67

- FY2017: $3.39

- FY2018: -$6.76

- FY2019: -$1.28

- FY2020: $0.91

- FY2021: $2.37

- FY2022: $1.58

- FY2023: $1.03

- FY2024: $1.30

- FY2025: $1.61

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -5.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.09×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.11×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.78×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 2.0%

- FY2018: -12.9%

- FY2019: -4.8%

- FY2020: -3.2%

- FY2021: -2.3%

- FY2022: 0.6%

- FY2023: -2.4%

- FY2024: -3.0%

- FY2025: -5.4%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 85% since Jun 2026 · "Corteva Delivers Strong 1H 2026, Raises FY 2026 Outlook, On-Track for October 1 Separation" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +2.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:35.537Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 14.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-07: Corteva beats first-quarter profit estimates on higher seed pricing ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/corteva-beats-first-quarter-profit-203655830.html))

- 2025-06-04: Corteva (NYSE:CTVA) Partners With FMC To Expand Fluindapyr Fungicide In U.S. Markets ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corteva-nyse-ctva-partners-fmc-174233674.html))

- 2025-11-04: Corteva Raises Full-Year Guidance on Strong Third Quarter and Year-To-Date 2025 Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corteva-raises-full-guidance-strong-213000450.html))

- 2026-06-12: Corteva sees higher restructuring charges, plans to cease production at Spanish site ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4603095-corteva-sees-higher-restructuring-charges-plans-to-cease-production-at-spanish-site?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-31: Corteva Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss, '26 Outlook Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/corteva-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-150200396.html))

- 2026-08-12: Corteva's Higher 2026 Guidance Puts Investor Focus on Growth Drivers ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cortevas-higher-2026-guidance-puts-181900178.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000004/ctva-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $14B 

- FY2018: $14B 

- FY2019: $14B 

- FY2020: $14B 

- FY2021: $16B 

- FY2022: $17B 

- FY2023: $17B 

- FY2024: $17B 

- FY2025: $17B 

- FY2026: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000004/ctva-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 40.2% 

- FY2017: 41.0% 

- FY2018: 30.4% 

- FY2019: 38.1% 

- FY2020: 40.2% 

- FY2021: 41.1% 

- FY2022: 40.2% 

- FY2024: 43.6% 

- FY2025: 47.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in agricultural inputs; annual sales are USD 17.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000004/ctva-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 17401000000; grossProfit 8229000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.6% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 7.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000004/ctva-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,1.000001],[2017,0.002313503746280979],[2018,-0.018461217463877733],[2019,0.03709278018974112],[2020,0.07104331704028316],[2021,0.08630073549911828],[2022,0.12331780162588489],[2023,0.05713648013792028],[2024,0.10984934678478439],[2025,0.1592680111151563]]; median 0.07867202626970071. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1019000000; owner earnings 710000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1113000000; owner earnings 2964000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 475000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1383000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 573000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2429000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 605000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1765000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 595000000; cash acquisitions 1456000000; owner earnings 1351000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.077720207253886.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 597000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1537000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000004/ctva-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 591000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1706000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,1335000000],[2017,988000000],[2018,2806000000],[2019,511000000],[2020,388000000],[2021,397000000],[2022,418000000],[2023,439000000],[2024,458000000],[2025,475000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000004/ctva-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 1071000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CTVA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.158 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Climate change and unpredictable seasonal and weather factors could impact Corteva’s sales and earnings." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000004/ctva-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Climate change and unpredictable seasonal and weather factors could impact Corteva’s sales and earnings.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 14.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.212378576633018. Price 12.88; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-05: $26.97 per share

- 2019-06: $29.57 per share

- 2019-07: $29.50 per share

- 2019-08: $29.32 per share

- 2019-09: $28.00 per share

- 2019-10: $26.38 per share

- 2019-11: $26.02 per share

- 2019-12: $29.56 per share

- 2020-01: $28.92 per share

- 2020-02: $27.20 per share

- 2020-03: $23.50 per share

- 2020-04: $26.19 per share

- 2020-05: $27.31 per share

- 2020-06: $26.79 per share

- 2020-07: $28.56 per share

- 2020-08: $28.55 per share

- 2020-09: $28.81 per share

- 2020-10: $32.98 per share

- 2020-11: $38.32 per share

- 2020-12: $38.72 per share

- 2021-01: $39.86 per share

- 2021-02: $45.15 per share

- 2021-03: $46.62 per share

- 2021-04: $48.76 per share

- 2021-05: $45.50 per share

- 2021-06: $44.35 per share

- 2021-07: $42.78 per share

- 2021-08: $43.97 per share

- 2021-09: $42.08 per share

- 2021-10: $43.15 per share

- 2021-11: $45.00 per share

- 2021-12: $47.28 per share

- 2022-01: $48.08 per share

- 2022-02: $52.03 per share

- 2022-03: $57.48 per share

- 2022-04: $57.69 per share

- 2022-05: $62.62 per share

- 2022-06: $54.14 per share

- 2022-07: $57.55 per share

- 2022-08: $61.43 per share

- 2022-09: $57.15 per share

- 2022-10: $65.34 per share

- 2022-11: $67.16 per share

- 2022-12: $58.78 per share

- 2023-01: $64.45 per share

- 2023-02: $62.29 per share

- 2023-03: $60.31 per share

- 2023-04: $61.12 per share

- 2023-05: $53.49 per share

- 2023-06: $57.30 per share

- 2023-07: $56.43 per share

- 2023-08: $50.51 per share

- 2023-09: $51.16 per share

- 2023-10: $48.14 per share

- 2023-11: $45.20 per share

- 2023-12: $47.92 per share

- 2024-01: $45.48 per share

- 2024-02: $53.52 per share

- 2024-03: $57.67 per share

- 2024-04: $54.13 per share

- 2024-05: $55.94 per share

- 2024-06: $53.94 per share

- 2024-07: $56.10 per share

- 2024-08: $57.30 per share

- 2024-09: $58.79 per share

- 2024-10: $60.92 per share

- 2024-11: $62.24 per share

- 2024-12: $56.96 per share

- 2025-01: $65.27 per share

- 2025-02: $62.98 per share

- 2025-03: $62.93 per share

- 2025-04: $61.99 per share

- 2025-05: $70.80 per share

- 2025-06: $74.53 per share

- 2025-07: $72.13 per share

- 2025-08: $74.19 per share

- 2025-09: $67.63 per share

- 2025-10: $61.44 per share

- 2025-11: $67.47 per share

- 2025-12: $67.03 per share

- 2026-01: $72.80 per share

- 2026-02: $80.12 per share

- 2026-03: $83.71 per share

- 2026-04: $81.01 per share

- 2026-05: $78.28 per share

- 2026-06: $84.69 per share

- 2026-07: $78.71 per share

- 2026-08: $84.63 per share

- 2026-09: $77.65 per share

- 2026-10: $13.36 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $15.13 per share, central $16.58 per share, high $18.50 per share

- FY2021: low $28.15 per share, central $31.25 per share, high $35.37 per share

- FY2022: low $29.71 per share, central $33.24 per share, high $37.94 per share

- FY2023: low $29.10 per share, central $32.64 per share, high $37.37 per share

- FY2024: low $29.90 per share, central $33.46 per share, high $38.20 per share

- FY2025: low $33.50 per share, central $37.28 per share, high $42.30 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:30.022Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000004/ctva-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.