# Carvana (CVNA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CVNA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:51.043Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $60.62 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $17.39 per share, central $23.68 per share, high $27.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value $23.68 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:51.043Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.6% at the stated quote. About 5.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 7

- Operating margin variation: 1.59×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.25×

- FY2017: -0.18×

- FY2018: -0.12×

- FY2019: -0.07×

- FY2020: -0.06×

- FY2021: -0.01×

- FY2022: -0.11×

- FY2023: -0.01×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -14.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -28.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -6.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -26.5%

- FY2017: -48.0%

- FY2018: -28.9%

- FY2019: -14.5%

- FY2020: -14.5%

- FY2021: -1.6%

- FY2022: -15.6%

- FY2023: -1.1%

- FY2024: 19.5%

- FY2025: 24.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 2.37×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $817M

- Net income, five-year total: $345M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 48.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -21.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.06×

- FY2023: 1.59×

- FY2024: 2.02×

- FY2025: 1.07×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -28.9% vs 19.5%

- Per-share earnings: -0.23 to 0.45 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 31.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 28.1%

- Market cap gain: $94B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.9M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 31.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 28.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.68

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.23

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.45

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.48

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $98M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$114M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -28.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 19.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.24

- FY2017: -$0.23

- FY2018: -$0.31

- FY2019: -$0.49

- FY2020: -$0.53

- FY2021: -$0.33

- FY2022: -$3.15

- FY2023: $0.45

- FY2024: $0.32

- FY2025: $1.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 2.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.56×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.74×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 43.8%

- FY2017: 28.3%

- FY2018: 35.6%

- FY2019: 31.2%

- FY2020: 14.4%

- FY2021: 35.1%

- FY2022: -3.0%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -8.3%

- FY2025: 2.8%

## Holders

- [Clifford Sosin](https://gigainvestors.com/CAS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Stephen Mandel](https://gigainvestors.com/LPC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Vinall](https://gigainvestors.com/RVC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 28% since Dec 2025 · "But the stock tumbled after its full-year forecast fell short of Wall Street's expectations." (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +48.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:35.870Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-09: CVNA Q1 Earnings Beat on Solid Revenues, Adjusted EBITDA Doubles ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cvna-q1-earnings-beat-solid-125500814.html))

- 2025-07-31: CVNA Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Y/Y Deliveries ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cvna-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-155500083.html))

- 2025-10-29: Carvana shares tumble as Q3 profit margin growth slows despite record sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-shares-tumble-q3-profit-211311872.html))

- 2025-11-02: Carvana (CVNA) Is Down 12.7% After Record Q3 Results Paired With Cautious Q4 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-cvna-down-12-7-171751352.html))

- 2026-02-18: Carvana shares tumble after fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-shares-tumble-fourth-quarter-221656727.html))

- 2026-04-29: Carvana Earnings Boosted by 40% Jump in Vehicle Sales. The Stock Is Rising. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0b5ede50-9323-362d-835a-be071e378515/carvana-earnings-boosted-by.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +48.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000009/cvna-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: $365M 

- FY2017: $859M 

- FY2018: $2.0B 

- FY2019: $3.9B 

- FY2020: $5.6B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $14B 

- FY2023: $11B 

- FY2024: $14B 

- FY2025: $20B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 20.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000009/cvna-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 5.3% 

- FY2017: 7.9% 

- FY2018: 10.1% 

- FY2019: 12.9% 

- FY2020: 12.9% 

- FY2021: 14.3% 

- FY2022: 7.4% 

- FY2023: 16.0% 

- FY2024: 19.8% 

- FY2025: 20.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto & truck dealerships; annual sales are USD 20.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000009/cvna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 20322000000; grossProfit 4192000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CVNA.US: Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. The company also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16% to 20.6% during 2023–25; it lost 14.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000009/cvna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.26514682990686456],[2017,-0.48030953462152765],[2018,-0.2889243051477236],[2019,-0.1446687354842503],[2020,-0.14452],[2021,-0.015542943624668936],[2022,-0.15605196871271376],[2023,-0.011328502985532559],[2024,0.19547405384315256],[2025,0.24205733832871804]]; median -0.14459436774212514. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 5 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 87000000; owner earnings 715000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 91000000; owner earnings 424000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000009/cvna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 147000000; owner earnings 1502037467.0184696. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,4619000],[2018,4619000],[2019,6000000],[2020,23000000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,6844000000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CVNA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.093 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our business is sensitive to changes in the prices of new and used vehicles." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000009/cvna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Our business is sensitive to changes in the prices of new and used vehicles.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.27091815196731595. Price 60.62; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.20212 → FY2025 1.339448509671941. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2017-05: $2.01 per share

- 2017-06: $4.09 per share

- 2017-07: $3.90 per share

- 2017-08: $3.57 per share

- 2017-09: $2.94 per share

- 2017-10: $2.84 per share

- 2017-11: $3.24 per share

- 2017-12: $3.82 per share

- 2018-01: $3.82 per share

- 2018-02: $4.01 per share

- 2018-03: $4.59 per share

- 2018-04: $5.24 per share

- 2018-05: $5.77 per share

- 2018-06: $8.32 per share

- 2018-07: $8.60 per share

- 2018-08: $12.95 per share

- 2018-09: $11.82 per share

- 2018-10: $7.75 per share

- 2018-11: $8.66 per share

- 2018-12: $6.54 per share

- 2019-01: $7.43 per share

- 2019-02: $8.97 per share

- 2019-03: $11.61 per share

- 2019-04: $14.31 per share

- 2019-05: $11.58 per share

- 2019-06: $12.52 per share

- 2019-07: $12.71 per share

- 2019-08: $16.23 per share

- 2019-09: $13.20 per share

- 2019-10: $16.22 per share

- 2019-11: $19.06 per share

- 2019-12: $18.41 per share

- 2020-01: $15.85 per share

- 2020-02: $16.58 per share

- 2020-03: $11.02 per share

- 2020-04: $16.02 per share

- 2020-05: $18.60 per share

- 2020-06: $24.04 per share

- 2020-07: $30.99 per share

- 2020-08: $43.19 per share

- 2020-09: $44.61 per share

- 2020-10: $37.07 per share

- 2020-11: $50.04 per share

- 2020-12: $47.91 per share

- 2021-01: $52.24 per share

- 2021-02: $56.70 per share

- 2021-03: $52.48 per share

- 2021-04: $57.05 per share

- 2021-05: $53.02 per share

- 2021-06: $60.36 per share

- 2021-07: $67.51 per share

- 2021-08: $65.61 per share

- 2021-09: $60.31 per share

- 2021-10: $60.64 per share

- 2021-11: $56.08 per share

- 2021-12: $46.36 per share

- 2022-01: $32.41 per share

- 2022-02: $30.09 per share

- 2022-03: $23.86 per share

- 2022-04: $11.59 per share

- 2022-05: $5.89 per share

- 2022-06: $4.52 per share

- 2022-07: $5.83 per share

- 2022-08: $6.60 per share

- 2022-09: $4.06 per share

- 2022-10: $2.71 per share

- 2022-11: $1.54 per share

- 2022-12: $0.95 per share

- 2023-01: $2.03 per share

- 2023-02: $1.88 per share

- 2023-03: $1.96 per share

- 2023-04: $1.39 per share

- 2023-05: $2.58 per share

- 2023-06: $5.18 per share

- 2023-07: $9.19 per share

- 2023-08: $10.07 per share

- 2023-09: $8.40 per share

- 2023-10: $5.40 per share

- 2023-11: $6.26 per share

- 2023-12: $10.59 per share

- 2024-01: $8.61 per share

- 2024-02: $15.19 per share

- 2024-03: $17.58 per share

- 2024-04: $16.58 per share

- 2024-05: $20.00 per share

- 2024-06: $25.74 per share

- 2024-07: $26.65 per share

- 2024-08: $30.12 per share

- 2024-09: $34.82 per share

- 2024-10: $49.46 per share

- 2024-11: $52.08 per share

- 2024-12: $40.67 per share

- 2025-01: $49.50 per share

- 2025-02: $46.62 per share

- 2025-03: $41.82 per share

- 2025-04: $48.87 per share

- 2025-05: $65.43 per share

- 2025-06: $67.39 per share

- 2025-07: $78.03 per share

- 2025-08: $74.38 per share

- 2025-09: $75.45 per share

- 2025-10: $61.31 per share

- 2025-11: $74.90 per share

- 2025-12: $84.40 per share

- 2026-01: $80.22 per share

- 2026-02: $66.83 per share

- 2026-03: $62.88 per share

- 2026-04: $79.16 per share

- 2026-05: $73.00 per share

- 2026-06: $65.82 per share

- 2026-07: $62.36 per share

- 2026-08: $73.46 per share

- 2026-09: $62.54 per share

- 2026-10: $60.39 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2025: low $9.23 per share, central $12.51 per share, high $14.41 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000009/cvna-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.