# Chevron (CVX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CVX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:51.844Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $219.32 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $137.27 per share, central $155.89 per share, high $180.67 per share. Buy at or below the central value $155.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:51.844Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.89×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.00×

- FY2020: -0.07×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.20×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.4%

- FY2017: 1.8%

- FY2018: 6.0%

- FY2019: 0.0%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: 7.3%

- FY2022: 22.5%

- FY2023: 14.5%

- FY2024: 11.4%

- FY2025: 5.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.19×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $122B

- Net income, five-year total: $102B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.63×

- FY2022: 1.12×

- FY2023: 1.07×

- FY2024: 1.05×

- FY2025: 1.23×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.8% vs 11.4%

- Per-share earnings: 2.45 to 9.72 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: $62B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $32B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 18.8%

- Per-share value change: $7.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.45

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.72

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.27

- Average buyback yield: 2.5%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $5.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $123B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.27

- FY2017: $4.84

- FY2018: $7.75

- FY2019: $1.54

- FY2020: -$2.96

- FY2021: $8.14

- FY2022: $18.28

- FY2023: $11.37

- FY2024: $9.72

- FY2025: $6.63

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.92×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.76×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.1%

- FY2017: -4.4%

- FY2018: -6.2%

- FY2019: -10.3%

- FY2020: -6.7%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -5.5%

- FY2023: -5.4%

- FY2024: -5.4%

- FY2025: -6.7%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.2% a year for ten years · sales +13.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:36.010Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-11: Chevron's Venezuelan oil cargoes stalled at sea after export cancellations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevrons-venezuelan-oil-cargoes-stalled-150350683.html))

- 2025-07-09: Chevron restructures operations to cut costs by up to $3 billion ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/chevron-restructures-operations-to-cut-costs-by-up-to-3-billion-93CH-4128757))

- 2025-08-01: Chevron Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates as Production Hits Record ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-131900307.html))

- 2026-01-30: Chevron Beats Estimates as Production Jumps Over 20%, Dividend Raised 4% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-beats-estimates-production-jumps-174752599.html))

- 2026-03-07: Chevron Hess Deal Reshapes Growth Outlook As Geopolitics Lift Oil Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-hess-deal-reshapes-growth-091221466.html))

- 2026-07-31: Chevron Earnings and Oil’s 20% July Jump Are Great News for the Stock ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8c680b33-4468-355f-a3d9-95988c6dc6f0/chevron-earnings-and-oil%E2%80%99s.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +13.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $135B 

- FY2018: $159B 

- FY2019: $140B 

- FY2020: $94B 

- FY2021: $156B 

- FY2022: $246B 

- FY2023: $197B 

- FY2024: $193B 

- FY2025: $184B 

- FY2026: $209B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 30.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 28.5% 

- FY2017: 29.4% 

- FY2018: 28.3% 

- FY2019: 21.8% 

- FY2020: 24.2% 

- FY2021: 29.2% 

- FY2022: 30.0% 

- FY2023: 30.7% 

- FY2024: 29.4% 

- FY2025: 30.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are USD 184.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 184432000000; grossProfit 56086000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CVX.US: Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration for, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and operation of a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company operates in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.4% to 30.7% during 2023–25; it earns 5.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 30.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.023998278734036645],[2017,0.017619160273525072],[2018,0.059910521125173526],[2019,0.00040379191670704585],[2020,-0.03304240423198814],[2021,0.07280353390522153],[2022,0.22486459967088518],[2023,0.14483460146400023],[2024,0.11428886498767342],[2025,0.05009683696722334]]; median 0.055003679046198434. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 30% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.29196817603434316],[2022,0.30043207770901353],[2023,0.3066887407129037]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 12.1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 13404000000; owner earnings 13451000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 13800000000; owner earnings 19054000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 14100000000; owner earnings 6617000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 8900000000; owner earnings 3309000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 8100000000; owner earnings 25450000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 12000000000; owner earnings 39765000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 15829000000; owner earnings 22866000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 16448000000; owner earnings 18495000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 17347000000; owner earnings 15084000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,8032000000],[2017,8132000000],[2018,8500000000],[2019,9000000000],[2020,9700000000],[2021,10200000000],[2022,11000000000],[2023,11336000000],[2024,11800000000],[2025,12751000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 12079000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CVX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.768 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Chevron is exposed to the effects of changing commodity prices" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Chevron is exposed to the effects of changing commodity prices

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06189294853092042. Price 219.32; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.8378666666666666 → FY2025 8.127155172413794. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $104.75 per share

- 2016-11: $111.56 per share

- 2016-12: $117.70 per share

- 2017-01: $111.35 per share

- 2017-02: $112.50 per share

- 2017-03: $107.37 per share

- 2017-04: $106.70 per share

- 2017-05: $103.48 per share

- 2017-06: $104.33 per share

- 2017-07: $109.19 per share

- 2017-08: $107.62 per share

- 2017-09: $117.50 per share

- 2017-10: $115.89 per share

- 2017-11: $118.99 per share

- 2017-12: $125.19 per share

- 2018-01: $125.35 per share

- 2018-02: $111.92 per share

- 2018-03: $114.04 per share

- 2018-04: $125.11 per share

- 2018-05: $124.30 per share

- 2018-06: $126.43 per share

- 2018-07: $126.27 per share

- 2018-08: $118.46 per share

- 2018-09: $122.28 per share

- 2018-10: $111.65 per share

- 2018-11: $118.94 per share

- 2018-12: $108.79 per share

- 2019-01: $114.65 per share

- 2019-02: $119.58 per share

- 2019-03: $123.18 per share

- 2019-04: $120.06 per share

- 2019-05: $113.85 per share

- 2019-06: $124.44 per share

- 2019-07: $123.11 per share

- 2019-08: $117.72 per share

- 2019-09: $118.60 per share

- 2019-10: $116.14 per share

- 2019-11: $117.13 per share

- 2019-12: $120.51 per share

- 2020-01: $107.14 per share

- 2020-02: $93.34 per share

- 2020-03: $72.46 per share

- 2020-04: $92.00 per share

- 2020-05: $91.70 per share

- 2020-06: $89.23 per share

- 2020-07: $83.94 per share

- 2020-08: $83.93 per share

- 2020-09: $72.00 per share

- 2020-10: $69.50 per share

- 2020-11: $87.18 per share

- 2020-12: $84.45 per share

- 2021-01: $85.20 per share

- 2021-02: $100.00 per share

- 2021-03: $104.79 per share

- 2021-04: $103.07 per share

- 2021-05: $103.79 per share

- 2021-06: $104.74 per share

- 2021-07: $101.81 per share

- 2021-08: $96.77 per share

- 2021-09: $101.45 per share

- 2021-10: $114.49 per share

- 2021-11: $112.87 per share

- 2021-12: $117.35 per share

- 2022-01: $131.33 per share

- 2022-02: $144.00 per share

- 2022-03: $162.83 per share

- 2022-04: $156.67 per share

- 2022-05: $174.66 per share

- 2022-06: $144.78 per share

- 2022-07: $163.78 per share

- 2022-08: $158.06 per share

- 2022-09: $143.67 per share

- 2022-10: $180.90 per share

- 2022-11: $183.31 per share

- 2022-12: $179.49 per share

- 2023-01: $174.02 per share

- 2023-02: $160.77 per share

- 2023-03: $163.16 per share

- 2023-04: $168.58 per share

- 2023-05: $150.62 per share

- 2023-06: $157.35 per share

- 2023-07: $163.66 per share

- 2023-08: $161.10 per share

- 2023-09: $168.62 per share

- 2023-10: $145.73 per share

- 2023-11: $143.60 per share

- 2023-12: $149.16 per share

- 2024-01: $147.43 per share

- 2024-02: $152.01 per share

- 2024-03: $157.74 per share

- 2024-04: $161.27 per share

- 2024-05: $162.30 per share

- 2024-06: $156.42 per share

- 2024-07: $160.47 per share

- 2024-08: $147.95 per share

- 2024-09: $147.27 per share

- 2024-10: $148.82 per share

- 2024-11: $161.93 per share

- 2024-12: $144.84 per share

- 2025-01: $149.19 per share

- 2025-02: $158.62 per share

- 2025-03: $167.29 per share

- 2025-04: $136.06 per share

- 2025-05: $136.70 per share

- 2025-06: $143.19 per share

- 2025-07: $151.64 per share

- 2025-08: $160.60 per share

- 2025-09: $155.29 per share

- 2025-10: $157.72 per share

- 2025-11: $151.13 per share

- 2025-12: $152.41 per share

- 2026-01: $176.90 per share

- 2026-02: $186.76 per share

- 2026-03: $206.90 per share

- 2026-04: $193.31 per share

- 2026-05: $182.46 per share

- 2026-06: $165.76 per share

- 2026-07: $196.83 per share

- 2026-08: $206.14 per share

- 2026-09: $204.21 per share

- 2026-10: $217.73 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $10.54 per share, central $11.48 per share, high $12.73 per share

- FY2019: low $39.72 per share, central $44.99 per share, high $51.99 per share

- FY2020: low $28.12 per share, central $31.72 per share, high $36.52 per share

- FY2021: low $89.81 per share, central $102.01 per share, high $118.25 per share

- FY2022: low $176.33 per share, central $203.73 per share, high $235.78 per share

- FY2023: low $135.22 per share, central $153.55 per share, high $177.95 per share

- FY2024: low $136.71 per share, central $155.34 per share, high $180.14 per share

- FY2025: low $127.53 per share, central $144.92 per share, high $168.07 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:32.454Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93410/000009341026000078/cvx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.