# Cranswick (CWK.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CWK.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:29.309Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 5,210.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 3,076.72 per share, central GBX 4,355.33 per share, high GBX 5,113.98 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 4,355.33 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:29.309Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.9% at the stated quote. About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.08×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 13.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 21.4%

- FY2018: 23.3%

- FY2019: 19.1%

- FY2020: 14.2%

- FY2021: 17.7%

- FY2022: 16.5%

- FY2023: 14.3%

- FY2024: 14.8%

- FY2025: 14.8%

- FY2026: 15.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.79×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 487M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 621M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 18.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.83×

- FY2023: 0.85×

- FY2024: 0.82×

- FY2025: 0.67×

- FY2026: 0.78×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.4% vs 14.8%

- Per-share earnings: 1.32 to 2.47 (three-year endpoint medians)

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Market cap gain: GBP 1.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 647M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 8.2%

- Per-share value change: GBP 1.15

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 1.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 2.47

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.82

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 323M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 1.32

- FY2018: GBP 1.36

- FY2019: GBP 1.34

- FY2020: GBP 1.57

- FY2021: GBP 1.74

- FY2022: GBP 1.93

- FY2023: GBP 2.07

- FY2024: GBP 2.10

- FY2025: GBP 2.47

- FY2026: GBP 2.89

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.70×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.20×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.9%

- FY2018: -6.5%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: -8.5%

- FY2022: -4.8%

- FY2023: -3.0%

- FY2024: -8.3%

- FY2025: -5.4%

- FY2026: -6.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.5% a year for ten years · "Cranswick readies more capex after FY profit jump" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +9.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.990Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.5% a year for ten years

- 2026-05-19: Cranswick readies more capex after FY profit jump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cranswick-readies-more-capex-fy-132427041.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43/2026-03-28/ESEF/GB/0/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43-2026-03-28/reports/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43-2026-03-28-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-06-30.

- FY2017: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2022: GBP 2.0B 

- FY2023: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.6B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.7B 

- FY2026: GBP 3.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43/2026-03-28/ESEF/GB/0/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43-2026-03-28/reports/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43-2026-03-28-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-06-30.

- FY2017: 12.8% 

- FY2018: 12.8% 

- FY2019: 13.0% 

- FY2020: 13.1% 

- FY2021: 14.0% 

- FY2022: 13.8% 

- FY2023: 12.7% 

- FY2024: 14.5% 

- FY2025: 15.0% 

- FY2026: 15.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are GBP 3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2026: revenue 2982500000; grossProfit 471500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CWK.LSE: Cranswick plc engages in the production and supply of food products to grocery retailers, food service sector, and other food producers in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, and internationally. The company offers fresh pork, gourmet sausages, gourmet bacon and gammon, fresh and coated chicken, ready to eat chicken, gourmet pastries, charcuterie, houmous and dips, cooked meats, olives and antipasti, and cheese, as well as provides food services, such as culinary solutions for pubs, restaurants, quick service restaurants, and coffee shops. It also offers mediterranean food products; olives, olive oil, nuts, grains, and pulses under the Cypressa brand; snacks and sharing boxes under the Bodega brand; and pet food and supplies under the Vitalin and Alpha Feeds, as well as operates export business. The company was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Hessle, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.5% to 15.8% during 2024–26; it earns 16% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 15.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.21365115907626386],[2018,0.2330483533947438],[2019,0.19086634728961027],[2020,0.14217912592698817],[2021,0.17661954725296738],[2022,0.16475270587931165],[2023,0.14285075645278933],[2024,0.14759614662853454],[2025,0.1477369636352639],[2026,0.15467398115081715]]; median 0.1597133435150644. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 14% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43/2026-03-28/ESEF/GB/0/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43-2026-03-28/reports/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43-2026-03-28-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-30); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.13995996628739993],[2022,0.13781428927059994],[2023,0.12729229444683599]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 52.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 18.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2017: growth capex 17200000; upkeep 29800000; owner earnings 67178000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.25603620232814317.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2018: growth capex 20800000; upkeep 37900000; owner earnings 70000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29714285714285715.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 79200000; owner earnings 22000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2020: growth capex 44603249.44543756; upkeep 56596750.55456244; owner earnings 66823249.44543756. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6674810012323174.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2021: growth capex 4200000; upkeep 67700000; owner earnings 78180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05372217958557176.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2022: growth capex 24370293.052035734; upkeep 69329706.94796427; owner earnings 85510293.05203573. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2849983572995784.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2023: growth capex 11100000; upkeep 74000000; owner earnings 95160000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11664564943253468.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2024: growth capex 13800000; upkeep 86700000; owner earnings 93220000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14803690195237074.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2025: growth capex 30370545.251487836; upkeep 107229454.74851216; owner earnings 90430545.25148784. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3358438807045472.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2026: growth capex 64699999; upkeep 101400000; owner earnings 123140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5254182150397921.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); Incremental return on capital 0.18727765285017156, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); Dividend observations: [[2017,14565000],[2018,18200000],[2019,22100000],[2020,22600000],[2021,27900000],[2022,32800000],[2023,36300000],[2024,43900000],[2025,49500000],[2026,55100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); FY2026: cash repurchases 22100000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CWK.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.505 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-30); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10938735152613688. Price 5210; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.705747067918663 → FY2026 2.246834288216619. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 2,118.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 2,240.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 2,343.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 2,316.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 2,331.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 2,559.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 2,682.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 2,965.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 2,804.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 2,902.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 2,990.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 2,952.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 3,080.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 3,219.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 3,337.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 2,938.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 3,058.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 2,844.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 2,914.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 3,374.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 3,376.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 3,274.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 3,230.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 3,384.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 2,890.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 2,834.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 2,632.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 2,884.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 2,472.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 2,722.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 2,898.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 2,684.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,586.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,662.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 2,760.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 2,948.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 3,104.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 3,130.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 3,390.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 3,572.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 3,330.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 3,698.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 3,718.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 3,688.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 3,618.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 3,580.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 3,730.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 3,626.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 3,218.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 3,442.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 3,520.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 3,414.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 3,402.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 3,636.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 3,730.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 3,956.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 3,970.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 4,050.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 3,966.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 3,572.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 3,460.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 3,558.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 3,702.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 3,664.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 3,516.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 3,524.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 3,178.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 3,050.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 3,066.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 3,340.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 3,082.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 2,680.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 2,974.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 3,076.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 3,078.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 3,182.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 3,130.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 3,004.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 3,210.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 3,250.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 3,246.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 3,336.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 3,370.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 3,552.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 3,494.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 3,840.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 3,808.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 4,024.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 3,846.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 4,096.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 4,310.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 4,445.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 4,445.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 4,765.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 4,820.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 5,020.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 5,070.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 4,960.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 4,865.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 5,040.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 4,895.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 4,905.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 5,180.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 5,320.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 5,350.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 5,310.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 5,100.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 5,020.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 4,935.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 5,160.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 4,955.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 5,260.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 5,430.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 5,230.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 5,390.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 5,490.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 5,500.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 5,350.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 5,390.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 5,100.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 5,210.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 1,286.40 per share, central GBX 1,759.09 per share, high GBX 2,062.19 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,644.27 per share, central GBX 2,295.70 per share, high GBX 2,693.87 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 1,230.26 per share, central GBX 1,411.97 per share, high GBX 1,640.51 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,536.09 per share, central GBX 1,952.66 per share, high GBX 2,280.96 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 1,830.24 per share, central GBX 2,384.12 per share, high GBX 2,787.80 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 1,902.53 per share, central GBX 2,462.42 per share, high GBX 2,879.01 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 2,245.46 per share, central GBX 2,994.55 per share, high GBX 3,506.31 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 2,531.03 per share, central GBX 3,403.60 per share, high GBX 3,986.86 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 2,691.17 per share, central GBX 3,700.54 per share, high GBX 4,339.28 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 3,003.94 per share, central GBX 4,252.31 per share, high GBX 4,993.01 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:16.354Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43/2026-03-28/ESEF/GB/0/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43-2026-03-28/reports/549300LDZLPU51XOSK43-2026-03-28-T01.xhtml); period 2026-03-28, filed 2026-06-30.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Cranswick

CWK · LSE

FTSE 250 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 5,210.00
Buy up to: GBX 4,355.33
Expected / yr: 8.9% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 9.3% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 6.3%
Worst year: 5.6%
Latest · 2026: 7.9%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 16% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 14.3% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 16.0%
Worst year: 14.2%
Latest · 2026: 15.5%

Each $1 of profit left $0.79 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.79×
Annual median: 0.82×
Latest · 2026: 0.78×

Buybacks favoured expensive years across 7 years (limit five), with price discipline -0.82 (minimum -0.5) and spending 1.1% of value (limit 1%).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 1.83
Worst year: GBP 1.32
Latest · 2026: GBP 2.89

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -6.3% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -5.1%
Worst year: -0.9%
Latest · 2026: -6.3%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 6.5%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.88 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 2118.00; 2016-11 · Price GBX 2240.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 2343.00; 2017-01 · Price GBX 2316.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-02 · Price GBX 2331.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-03 · Price GBX 2559.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-04 · Price GBX 2682.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-05 · Price GBX 2965.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-06 · Price GBX 2804.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-07 · Price GBX 2902.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-08 · Price GBX 2990.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-09 · Price GBX 2952.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-10 · Price GBX 3080.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-11 · Price GBX 3219.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2017-12 · Price GBX 3337.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2018-01 · Price GBX 2938.00 · Value 1759.09 · Buy at or below 1759.09; 2018-02 · Price GBX 3058.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-03 · Price GBX 2844.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-04 · Price GBX 2914.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-05 · Price GBX 3374.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-06 · Price GBX 3376.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-07 · Price GBX 3274.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-08 · Price GBX 3230.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-09 · Price GBX 3384.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-10 · Price GBX 2890.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-11 · Price GBX 2834.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2018-12 · Price GBX 2632.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2019-01 · Price GBX 2884.00 · Value 2295.70 · Buy at or below 2295.70; 2019-02 · Price GBX 2472.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-03 · Price GBX 2722.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-04 · Price GBX 2898.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-05 · Price GBX 2684.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-06 · Price GBX 2586.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-07 · Price GBX 2662.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-08 · Price GBX 2760.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-09 · Price GBX 2948.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-10 · Price GBX 3104.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-11 · Price GBX 3130.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2019-12 · Price GBX 3390.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2020-01 · Price GBX 3572.00 · Value 1411.97 · Buy at or below 1411.97; 2020-02 · Price GBX 3330.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-03 · Price GBX 3698.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-04 · Price GBX 3718.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-05 · Price GBX 3688.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-06 · Price GBX 3618.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-07 · Price GBX 3580.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-08 · Price GBX 3730.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-09 · Price GBX 3626.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-10 · Price GBX 3218.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-11 · Price GBX 3442.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2020-12 · Price GBX 3520.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2021-01 · Price GBX 3414.00 · Value 1952.66 · Buy at or below 1952.66; 2021-02 · Price GBX 3402.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-03 · Price GBX 3636.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-04 · Price GBX 3730.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-05 · Price GBX 3956.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-06 · Price GBX 3970.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-07 · Price GBX 4050.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-08 · Price GBX 3966.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-09 · Price GBX 3572.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-10 · Price GBX 3460.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-11 · Price GBX 3558.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2021-12 · Price GBX 3702.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2022-01 · Price GBX 3664.00 · Value 2384.12 · Buy at or below 2384.12; 2022-02 · Price GBX 3516.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-03 · Price GBX 3524.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-04 · Price GBX 3178.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-05 · Price GBX 3050.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-06 · Price GBX 3066.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-07 · Price GBX 3340.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-08 · Price GBX 3082.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-09 · Price GBX 2680.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-10 · Price GBX 2974.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-11 · Price GBX 3076.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2022-12 · Price GBX 3078.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2023-01 · Price GBX 3182.00 · Value 2462.42 · Buy at or below 2462.42; 2023-02 · Price GBX 3130.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-03 · Price GBX 3004.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-04 · Price GBX 3210.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-05 · Price GBX 3250.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-06 · Price GBX 3246.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-07 · Price GBX 3336.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-08 · Price GBX 3370.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-09 · Price GBX 3552.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-10 · Price GBX 3494.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-11 · Price GBX 3840.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2023-12 · Price GBX 3808.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2024-01 · Price GBX 4024.00 · Value 2994.55 · Buy at or below 2994.55; 2024-02 · Price GBX 3846.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-03 · Price GBX 4096.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-04 · Price GBX 4310.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-05 · Price GBX 4445.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-06 · Price GBX 4445.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-07 · Price GBX 4765.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-08 · Price GBX 4820.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-09 · Price GBX 5020.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-10 · Price GBX 5070.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-11 · Price GBX 4960.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2024-12 · Price GBX 4865.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2025-01 · Price GBX 5040.00 · Value 3403.60 · Buy at or below 3403.60; 2025-02 · Price GBX 4895.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-03 · Price GBX 4905.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-04 · Price GBX 5180.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-05 · Price GBX 5320.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-06 · Price GBX 5350.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-07 · Price GBX 5310.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-08 · Price GBX 5100.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-09 · Price GBX 5020.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-10 · Price GBX 4935.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-11 · Price GBX 5160.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2025-12 · Price GBX 4955.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2026-01 · Price GBX 5260.00 · Value 3700.54 · Buy at or below 3700.54; 2026-02 · Price GBX 5430.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-03 · Price GBX 5230.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-04 · Price GBX 5390.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-05 · Price GBX 5490.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-06 · Price GBX 5500.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-07 · Price GBX 5350.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-08 · Price GBX 5390.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-09 · Price GBX 5100.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-10 · Price GBX 5210.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31; 2026-10 · Price GBX 5210.00 · Value 4252.31 · Buy at or below 4252.31

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 3,076.72 – GBX 5,113.98
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 4,355.33
Discount to value	1 − 5210.00 / 4355.33 = -19.6%
Return / year	About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 228.33/share; 7.7% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 0.00/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 3.0B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 123M

Owner earnings

Operating margin7.9%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -241M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares55M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·