5 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and average operating margin was negative (must be zero or higher), and margins varied 228.4% around their average (limit 35%).
- 10y median
- -3.1%
- Worst year
- -9455.8%
- Latest · 2026
- 44.2%
# Catalyst Metals (CYL.AU) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CYL.AU Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2026. Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: AUD 5.25 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low AUD 3.95 per share, central AUD 5.16 per share, high AUD 5.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 5.16 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 9.9% at the stated quote. About 9.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: fail - 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational) - more than 2 net loss years - negative average operating margin - operating margin variation exceeds 0.35 - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 1 - Years with a net loss: 5 - Operating margin variation: 2.28× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -11.75× - FY2018: -94.56× - FY2019: -17.43× - FY2020: -0.05× - FY2021: 0.18× - FY2022: -0.01× - FY2023: -0.25× - FY2024: 0.15× - FY2025: 0.40× - FY2026: 0.44× ### moat: fail - Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%. - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: -4.5% - ROIC, second-lowest year: -72.7% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -27.4 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.2% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 41.5% - Years with nonpositive capital: 2 - Capital spending / revenue: 24.0% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -4.6% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -42.1% - FY2018: -72.7% - FY2019: -131.5% - FY2020: -23.3% - FY2021: 20.2% - FY2022: -1.7% - FY2023: -7.3% - FY2024: 17.6% - FY2025: 46.2% - FY2026: 47.3% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.95× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 287M - Net income, five-year total: AUD 300M - Return on incremental invested capital: 47.5% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 104.4 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 955.6 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.1% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: 0.93× - FY2023: 1.53× - FY2024: 0.89× - FY2025: 1.00× - FY2026: 0.98× ### management: fail - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years) - potential debt-funded buybacks (informational) - buybacks unrelated to price (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -72.7% vs 46.2% - Per-share earnings: -0.01 to 0.44 (three-year endpoint medians) - five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.9% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.8% - Market cap gain: AUD 1.2B - Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 294M - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.9% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.8% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026 - Per-share value change: AUD 0.45 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.01 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.44 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.07 - Average buyback yield: 0.2% - Buyback history: 7 years - Debt-funded buybacks: Yes - Acquisition spending: AUD 20M - Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 293M - ROIC, first three-year median: -72.7% - ROIC, last three-year median: 46.2% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: AUD -0.01 - FY2018: AUD -0.02 - FY2019: AUD -0.01 - FY2020: AUD -0.01 - FY2021: AUD 0.00 - FY2022: AUD 0.01 - FY2023: AUD -0.07 - FY2024: AUD 0.10 - FY2025: AUD 0.44 - FY2026: AUD 0.65 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -11.0% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.48× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 1.61× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -10.3% - FY2018: 1.2% - FY2019: -1.5% - FY2020: 2.1% - FY2021: -12.0% - FY2022: -6.2% - FY2023: -7.4% - FY2024: -13.8% - FY2025: -11.8% - FY2026: -11.0% ## Holders ## Price story Down 39% since Jan 2026 · sales +74.9% Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.880Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 6.8% a year for ten years ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +74.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16. - FY2017: AUD 106K - FY2018: AUD 47K - FY2019: AUD 65K - FY2020: AUD 29M - FY2021: AUD 29M - FY2022: AUD 63M - FY2023: AUD 64M - FY2024: AUD 242M - FY2025: AUD 361M - FY2026: AUD 632M ### Gross margin · FY2026 gross margin 50.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16. - FY2021: 22.5% - FY2022: 5.8% - FY2024: 28.4% - FY2025: 41.5% - FY2026: 50.1% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in gold; annual sales are AUD 631.9 million. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); FY2026: revenue 631938000; grossProfit 316412000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 28.4% to 50.1% during 2024–26; it lost 4.5% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 28.4%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 41.5%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 50.1%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.42070594992313515],[2018,-0.7267568687658552],[2019,-1.3154919652680417],[2020,-0.2328988802624255],[2021,0.2015457465514261],[2022,-0.017392272412221046],[2023,-0.0726116157572476],[2024,0.17627516154502632],[2025,0.4620120122141161],[2026,0.4730705014438016]]; median -0.045001944084734326. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 3 of 10 years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); FY2022: growth capex 5249290; upkeep 10343214; owner earnings 1938750.2. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.707563872849633. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); FY2024: growth capex 702000; upkeep 32041000; owner earnings 21025200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03338850522230466. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); FY2025: growth capex 134087000; upkeep 25498000; owner earnings 119272000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1242118854383258. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 107878000; owner earnings 168182000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,719208],[2022,242180],[2023,747000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 6.5% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CYL.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.521000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 6.8% yearly over ten years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:58.567Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08399709787101314. Price 5.25; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.00505796946883577 → FY2026 0.6365336766895495. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share) - 2016-10: AUD 0.59 per share - 2016-11: AUD 0.50 per share - 2016-12: AUD 0.49 per share - 2017-01: AUD 0.50 per share - 2017-02: AUD 0.48 per share - 2017-03: AUD 0.56 per share - 2017-04: AUD 0.48 per share - 2017-05: AUD 0.50 per share - 2017-06: AUD 0.50 per share - 2017-07: AUD 0.52 per share - 2017-08: AUD 0.77 per share - 2017-09: AUD 0.80 per share - 2017-10: AUD 0.82 per share - 2017-11: AUD 0.95 per share - 2017-12: AUD 1.23 per share - 2018-01: AUD 1.28 per share - 2018-02: AUD 1.18 per share - 2018-03: AUD 1.23 per share - 2018-04: AUD 1.26 per share - 2018-05: AUD 1.26 per share - 2018-06: AUD 1.50 per share - 2018-07: AUD 1.37 per share - 2018-08: AUD 1.40 per share - 2018-09: AUD 1.70 per share - 2018-10: AUD 1.57 per share - 2018-11: AUD 1.92 per share - 2018-12: AUD 1.75 per share - 2019-01: AUD 1.69 per share - 2019-02: AUD 1.87 per share - 2019-03: AUD 2.31 per share - 2019-04: AUD 2.00 per share - 2019-05: AUD 1.95 per share - 2019-06: AUD 1.96 per share - 2019-07: AUD 2.22 per share - 2019-08: AUD 2.32 per share - 2019-09: AUD 2.49 per share - 2019-10: AUD 2.40 per share - 2019-11: AUD 3.04 per share - 2019-12: AUD 2.82 per share - 2020-01: AUD 2.99 per share - 2020-02: AUD 2.70 per share - 2020-03: AUD 1.90 per share - 2020-04: AUD 2.73 per share - 2020-05: AUD 2.69 per share - 2020-06: AUD 2.75 per share - 2020-07: AUD 2.62 per share - 2020-08: AUD 2.44 per share - 2020-09: AUD 2.50 per share - 2020-10: AUD 2.45 per share - 2020-11: AUD 2.59 per share - 2020-12: AUD 2.12 per share - 2021-01: AUD 2.29 per share - 2021-02: AUD 1.84 per share - 2021-03: AUD 2.00 per share - 2021-04: AUD 2.02 per share - 2021-05: AUD 2.04 per share - 2021-06: AUD 1.95 per share - 2021-07: AUD 1.96 per share - 2021-08: AUD 1.89 per share - 2021-09: AUD 1.88 per share - 2021-10: AUD 2.08 per share - 2021-11: AUD 2.20 per share - 2021-12: AUD 1.97 per share - 2022-01: AUD 1.88 per share - 2022-02: AUD 1.81 per share - 2022-03: AUD 1.92 per share - 2022-04: AUD 1.72 per share - 2022-05: AUD 1.58 per share - 2022-06: AUD 1.21 per share - 2022-07: AUD 1.28 per share - 2022-08: AUD 1.31 per share - 2022-09: AUD 1.29 per share - 2022-10: AUD 1.12 per share - 2022-11: AUD 1.25 per share - 2022-12: AUD 1.18 per share - 2023-01: AUD 1.40 per share - 2023-02: AUD 1.25 per share - 2023-03: AUD 0.95 per share - 2023-04: AUD 0.96 per share - 2023-05: AUD 0.67 per share - 2023-06: AUD 0.77 per share - 2023-07: AUD 0.72 per share - 2023-08: AUD 0.53 per share - 2023-09: AUD 0.57 per share - 2023-10: AUD 0.70 per share - 2023-11: AUD 0.92 per share - 2023-12: AUD 0.81 per share - 2024-01: AUD 0.61 per share - 2024-02: AUD 0.49 per share - 2024-03: AUD 0.64 per share - 2024-04: AUD 0.93 per share - 2024-05: AUD 1.11 per share - 2024-06: AUD 1.13 per share - 2024-07: AUD 1.92 per share - 2024-08: AUD 2.28 per share - 2024-09: AUD 2.75 per share - 2024-10: AUD 3.47 per share - 2024-11: AUD 2.69 per share - 2024-12: AUD 2.58 per share - 2025-01: AUD 3.51 per share - 2025-02: AUD 4.09 per share - 2025-03: AUD 5.78 per share - 2025-04: AUD 5.67 per share - 2025-05: AUD 6.45 per share - 2025-06: AUD 5.22 per share - 2025-07: AUD 5.10 per share - 2025-08: AUD 7.25 per share - 2025-09: AUD 7.90 per share - 2025-10: AUD 6.79 per share - 2025-11: AUD 6.77 per share - 2025-12: AUD 7.36 per share - 2026-01: AUD 8.62 per share - 2026-02: AUD 8.51 per share - 2026-03: AUD 6.30 per share - 2026-04: AUD 5.17 per share - 2026-05: AUD 5.20 per share - 2026-06: AUD 5.03 per share - 2026-07: AUD 5.40 per share - 2026-08: AUD 6.52 per share - 2026-09: AUD 5.86 per share - 2026-10: AUD 5.60 per share ## Annual estimated value (AUD per share) - FY2025: low AUD 1.36 per share, central AUD 1.60 per share, high AUD 1.74 per share - FY2026: low AUD 3.95 per share, central AUD 5.16 per share, high AUD 5.87 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
CYL · AU
S&P/ASX 200
Not a wonderful business
3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
5 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and average operating margin was negative (must be zero or higher), and margins varied 228.4% around their average (limit 35%).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median -4.5% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -72.7% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $0.95 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Share growth was 1.9% over ten years and 3.8% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -11% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · fail 5 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin -1228.6%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.39 AUD. 5 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed. Mean operating margin over the last ten years is negative.
| Value range | AUD 3.95 – AUD 5.87 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value AUD 5.16 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 5.25 / 5.16 = -1.7% |
| Return / year | About 9.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash AUD 0.21/share; 8.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash AUD 1.12/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |