# Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DAL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:54.463Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $78.08 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $70.47 per share, central $79.69 per share, high $91.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value $79.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:54.463Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.2% at the stated quote. About 10.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 14.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: -0.73×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 25.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 22.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 83.0%

- FY2017: 43.4%

- FY2018: 21.3%

- FY2019: 25.5%

- FY2020: -74.4%

- FY2021: 7.6%

- FY2022: 12.1%

- FY2023: 18.3%

- FY2024: 17.6%

- FY2025: 16.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $14B

- Net income, five-year total: $15B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -1.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.88×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 43.4% vs 17.6%

- Per-share earnings: 5.56 to 7.17 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Market cap gain: $8.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.2%

- Per-share value change: $1.61

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.56

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.17

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.70

- Average buyback yield: 4.5%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $18B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 43.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.56

- FY2017: $4.43

- FY2018: $5.67

- FY2019: $7.30

- FY2020: -$19.47

- FY2021: $0.44

- FY2022: $2.06

- FY2023: $7.17

- FY2024: $5.33

- FY2025: $7.65

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.86×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.67×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.75×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.9%

- FY2017: -3.6%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: -5.7%

- FY2020: -11.9%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: -7.0%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: -4.1%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.6% a year for ten years · sales +7.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:36.626Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-09: Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) Sees Net Income Rise To US$240M In Q1 Earnings Report ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-air-lines-nyse-dal-172723234.html))

- 2025-07-11: DAL Q2 Deep Dive: Premium Segments and Cost Discipline Drive Positive Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dal-q2-deep-dive-premium-053937129.html))

- 2025-12-03: Delta Says Government Shutdown Dented Profit by $200 Million ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ef5ddd96-edc0-3c07-b665-68d77a8487ea/delta-says-government.html))

- 2026-05-09: Delta Air Lines Reworks Costs And Service As Spirit Exit Reshapes Competition ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/delta-air-lines-reworks-costs-002901136.html))

- 2026-06-21: Delta Air Lines (DAL) Lifts Dividend 15% While Upgrading 737s To Cut Fuel Use ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/delta-air-lines-dal-lifts-130753395.html))

- 2026-09-11: Delta Air Lines (DAL) Premium Demand and Pricing Power Support Growth Despite Fuel Risks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/delta-air-lines-dal-premium-222112120.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: $41B 

- FY2018: $44B 

- FY2019: $47B 

- FY2020: $17B 

- FY2021: $30B 

- FY2022: $51B 

- FY2023: $58B 

- FY2024: $62B 

- FY2025: $63B 

- FY2026: $68B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 22.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 31.1% 

- FY2017: 28.0% 

- FY2018: 25.0% 

- FY2019: 28.9% 

- FY2021: 7.1% 

- FY2022: 22.1% 

- FY2023: 26.7% 

- FY2024: 26.9% 

- FY2025: 22.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in airlines; annual sales are USD 63.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 63364000000; grossProfit 14475000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DAL.US: Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery. Its domestic network centered on core hubs in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Salt Lake City, as well as coastal hub positions in Boston, Los Angeles, New York-LaGuardia, New York-JFK, and Seattle; and international network centered on hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, Bogota, Lima, Mexico City, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Santiago (Chile), Sao Paulo, Seoul-Incheon, and Tokyo. It also provides aircraft maintenance and engineering support, repair, and overhaul services; and vacation packages. The company operates through a fleet of approximately 1,314 aircraft. Delta Air Lines, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.8% to 26.9% during 2023–25; it earns 18% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 22.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.8296667471789053],[2017,0.43420669577874815],[2018,0.21312932026470305],[2019,0.2551393488561675],[2020,-0.7443897831179627],[2021,0.07584509951150516],[2022,0.1205932595007969],[2023,0.18322221031764205],[2024,0.1762646895356513],[2025,0.16902574707935153]]; median 0.17974344992664668. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Refinery revenues decreased in 2025, primarily driven by lower pricing of refined products.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Because Monroe is able to blend only a small amount of renewable fuels, it must purchase the majority of its RINs requirement in the second . Refinery revenues decreased in 2025, primarily driven by lower pricing of refined products. The refinery's operating income increased in 2025 compared to 2024 mainly due to higher industry refining margins.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 32.7% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 8 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3391000000; owner earnings 2706000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 996412241.1424122; upkeep 2894587758.857588; owner earnings 2532412241.142412. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3934636805786859.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 2076030779.8671994; upkeep 3091969220.1328006; owner earnings 3172030779.8671994. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6544800236629844.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 1740738834.9655418; upkeep 3195261165.034458; owner earnings 4152738834.965542. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4191784998152878.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 1249000000; upkeep 1998000000; owner earnings 280000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.460714285714285.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 4259000000; upkeep 2107000000; owner earnings 1318000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.231411229135053.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 2982000000; upkeep 2341000000; owner earnings 4609000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6469950097635062.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 2627000000; upkeep 2513000000; owner earnings 3457000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7599074341914955.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 1435489815.511961; upkeep 3063510184.488039; owner earnings 4384489815.511961. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.32740179038238776.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,509000000],[2017,731000000],[2018,909000000],[2019,980000000],[2020,260000000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,128000000],[2024,321000000],[2025,440000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

"Our business and results of operations are dependent on the price of aircraft fuel." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Our business and results of operations are dependent on the price of aircraft fuel.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.003810177256857006. Price 78.08; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.489401627936453 → FY2025 6.704112867755292. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $41.77 per share

- 2016-11: $48.18 per share

- 2016-12: $49.19 per share

- 2017-01: $47.24 per share

- 2017-02: $49.93 per share

- 2017-03: $45.96 per share

- 2017-04: $45.44 per share

- 2017-05: $49.13 per share

- 2017-06: $53.74 per share

- 2017-07: $49.36 per share

- 2017-08: $47.19 per share

- 2017-09: $48.22 per share

- 2017-10: $50.03 per share

- 2017-11: $52.92 per share

- 2017-12: $56.00 per share

- 2018-01: $56.77 per share

- 2018-02: $53.90 per share

- 2018-03: $54.81 per share

- 2018-04: $52.22 per share

- 2018-05: $54.05 per share

- 2018-06: $49.54 per share

- 2018-07: $54.42 per share

- 2018-08: $58.48 per share

- 2018-09: $57.83 per share

- 2018-10: $54.73 per share

- 2018-11: $60.71 per share

- 2018-12: $49.90 per share

- 2019-01: $49.43 per share

- 2019-02: $49.58 per share

- 2019-03: $51.65 per share

- 2019-04: $58.29 per share

- 2019-05: $51.50 per share

- 2019-06: $56.75 per share

- 2019-07: $61.04 per share

- 2019-08: $57.86 per share

- 2019-09: $57.60 per share

- 2019-10: $55.08 per share

- 2019-11: $57.31 per share

- 2019-12: $58.48 per share

- 2020-01: $55.74 per share

- 2020-02: $46.13 per share

- 2020-03: $28.53 per share

- 2020-04: $25.91 per share

- 2020-05: $25.21 per share

- 2020-06: $28.05 per share

- 2020-07: $24.97 per share

- 2020-08: $30.85 per share

- 2020-09: $30.58 per share

- 2020-10: $30.64 per share

- 2020-11: $40.25 per share

- 2020-12: $40.21 per share

- 2021-01: $37.96 per share

- 2021-02: $47.94 per share

- 2021-03: $48.28 per share

- 2021-04: $46.92 per share

- 2021-05: $47.68 per share

- 2021-06: $43.26 per share

- 2021-07: $39.90 per share

- 2021-08: $40.44 per share

- 2021-09: $42.61 per share

- 2021-10: $39.13 per share

- 2021-11: $36.20 per share

- 2021-12: $39.08 per share

- 2022-01: $39.69 per share

- 2022-02: $39.92 per share

- 2022-03: $39.57 per share

- 2022-04: $43.03 per share

- 2022-05: $41.69 per share

- 2022-06: $28.97 per share

- 2022-07: $31.80 per share

- 2022-08: $31.07 per share

- 2022-09: $28.06 per share

- 2022-10: $33.93 per share

- 2022-11: $35.37 per share

- 2022-12: $32.86 per share

- 2023-01: $39.10 per share

- 2023-02: $38.34 per share

- 2023-03: $34.92 per share

- 2023-04: $34.31 per share

- 2023-05: $36.33 per share

- 2023-06: $47.54 per share

- 2023-07: $46.26 per share

- 2023-08: $42.88 per share

- 2023-09: $37.00 per share

- 2023-10: $31.25 per share

- 2023-11: $36.93 per share

- 2023-12: $40.23 per share

- 2024-01: $39.14 per share

- 2024-02: $42.27 per share

- 2024-03: $47.87 per share

- 2024-04: $50.07 per share

- 2024-05: $51.02 per share

- 2024-06: $47.44 per share

- 2024-07: $43.02 per share

- 2024-08: $42.49 per share

- 2024-09: $50.79 per share

- 2024-10: $57.22 per share

- 2024-11: $63.82 per share

- 2024-12: $60.50 per share

- 2025-01: $67.27 per share

- 2025-02: $60.12 per share

- 2025-03: $43.60 per share

- 2025-04: $41.63 per share

- 2025-05: $48.39 per share

- 2025-06: $49.18 per share

- 2025-07: $53.21 per share

- 2025-08: $61.78 per share

- 2025-09: $56.75 per share

- 2025-10: $57.38 per share

- 2025-11: $64.10 per share

- 2025-12: $69.40 per share

- 2026-01: $65.89 per share

- 2026-02: $65.70 per share

- 2026-03: $66.48 per share

- 2026-04: $67.99 per share

- 2026-05: $82.48 per share

- 2026-06: $93.66 per share

- 2026-07: $87.44 per share

- 2026-08: $78.00 per share

- 2026-09: $83.46 per share

- 2026-10: $79.57 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $42.43 per share, central $47.83 per share, high $55.03 per share

- FY2017: low $45.17 per share, central $51.05 per share, high $58.88 per share

- FY2018: low $52.77 per share, central $64.81 per share, high $75.43 per share

- FY2019: low $72.11 per share, central $100.68 per share, high $117.70 per share

- FY2020: low $41.78 per share, central $44.56 per share, high $48.26 per share

- FY2021: low $48.11 per share, central $52.44 per share, high $58.20 per share

- FY2022: low $32.20 per share, central $36.85 per share, high $41.50 per share

- FY2023: low $29.92 per share, central $33.47 per share, high $38.19 per share

- FY2024: low $35.38 per share, central $47.68 per share, high $55.43 per share

- FY2025: low $64.04 per share, central $72.23 per share, high $83.13 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:35.260Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000013/dal-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.