# Dropbox (DBX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DBX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:55.702Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $36.54 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $30.70 per share, central $34.35 per share, high $39.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $34.35 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:55.702Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.5% at the stated quote. About 9.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 3.93×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.10×

- FY2018: -0.35×

- FY2019: -0.05×

- FY2020: -0.14×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.27×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.26×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 81.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -46.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 79.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 79.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 68.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -32.4%

- FY2018: -46.4%

- FY2019: -15.1%

- FY2020: -230.1%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 76.0%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: 87.2%

- LTM to Jun 2026: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.28×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.36×

- FY2022: 1.22×

- FY2023: 1.32×

- FY2024: 1.25×

- FY2025: 1.27×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -40.2% vs 208.2%

- Per-share earnings: -1.11 to 1.40 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -8.0%

- Market cap gain: $258M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$2.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -8.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $2.51

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.40

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.71

- Average buyback yield: 9.0%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $429M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -40.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.11

- FY2017: -$0.57

- FY2018: -$1.35

- FY2019: -$0.13

- FY2020: -$0.62

- FY2021: $0.85

- FY2022: $1.52

- FY2023: $1.31

- FY2024: $1.40

- FY2025: $1.86

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -15.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.14×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 31.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.87×

- Accounting red flags: 1

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -46.1%

- FY2017: -43.3%

- FY2018: -53.7%

- FY2019: -21.5%

- FY2020: -34.6%

- FY2021: -12.7%

- FY2022: -7.8%

- FY2023: -11.1%

- FY2024: -13.3%

- FY2025: -15.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years · sales +0.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:36.941Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-11: DBX Q2 Deep Dive: Efficiency Gains Offset User Declines as Dash Product Expansion Progresses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dbx-q2-deep-dive-efficiency-133641828.html))

- 2025-11-07: Dropbox Outlook Lift Driven by Profitability, Dash Remains in Early Stages, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dropbox-outlook-lift-driven-profitability-171523459.html))

- 2026-02-20: Dropbox projects flat revenue and 39% operating margin for 2026 as Dash rollout accelerates ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4554389-dropbox-projects-flat-revenue-and-39-percent-operating-margin-for-2026-as-dash-rollout?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-17: How Investors Are Reacting To Dropbox (DBX) Raising 2026 Revenue Guidance Amid Weaker Profitability ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/investors-reacting-dropbox-dbx-raising-100843271.html))

- 2026-09-24: Dropbox downgraded at Citi as firm says AI opportunity is 'premature' ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4646532-dropbox-downgraded-at-citi-as-firm-says-ai-opportunity-is-premature?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467623/000146762326000008/dbx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2017: $1.1B 

- FY2018: $1.4B 

- FY2019: $1.7B 

- FY2020: $1.9B 

- FY2021: $2.2B 

- FY2022: $2.3B 

- FY2023: $2.5B 

- FY2024: $2.5B 

- FY2025: $2.5B 

- FY2026: $2.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 79.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467623/000146762326000008/dbx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2017: 66.7% 

- FY2018: 71.6% 

- FY2019: 75.3% 

- FY2020: 78.3% 

- FY2021: 79.4% 

- FY2022: 80.9% 

- FY2023: 80.9% 

- FY2024: 82.5% 

- FY2025: 80.1% 

- FY2026: 79.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software infrastructure; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467623/000146762326000008/dbx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 2521000000; grossProfit 2020200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 80.1% to 82.5% during 2023–25; it earns 81.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 80.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 82.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467623/000146762326000008/dbx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 80.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.3240367965367965],[2018,-0.4643188578227246],[2019,-0.15084203036053132],[2020,-2.3010515247108305],[2021,2744],[2022,0.760167714884696],[2023,4.134658024901928],[2024,2.0818621050574757],[2025,0.872254803027825],[2026,2.4529655156006207]]; median 0.8162112589562605. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 81% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467623/000146762326000008/dbx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.7941517215811669],[2022,0.80893801883952],[2023,0.8087224176527023]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 2 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.7 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 26100000; owner earnings 44000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 28900000; owner earnings 458300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 34900000; owner earnings 675400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 24600000; owner earnings 599000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 22500000; owner earnings 567100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467623/000146762326000008/dbx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 21000000; owner earnings 644800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,1592000000],[2022,0],[2023,100000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467623/000146762326000008/dbx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 1713900000 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.012502716534945724. Price 36.54; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.4032432432432433 → FY2025 2.3636363636363638. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-03: $31.25 per share

- 2018-04: $30.11 per share

- 2018-05: $29.99 per share

- 2018-06: $32.42 per share

- 2018-07: $26.77 per share

- 2018-08: $26.85 per share

- 2018-09: $26.83 per share

- 2018-10: $23.47 per share

- 2018-11: $23.39 per share

- 2018-12: $20.43 per share

- 2019-01: $24.71 per share

- 2019-02: $23.86 per share

- 2019-03: $21.80 per share

- 2019-04: $24.38 per share

- 2019-05: $22.56 per share

- 2019-06: $25.05 per share

- 2019-07: $23.56 per share

- 2019-08: $17.90 per share

- 2019-09: $20.17 per share

- 2019-10: $19.82 per share

- 2019-11: $18.49 per share

- 2019-12: $17.91 per share

- 2020-01: $17.02 per share

- 2020-02: $19.56 per share

- 2020-03: $18.10 per share

- 2020-04: $21.02 per share

- 2020-05: $22.57 per share

- 2020-06: $21.77 per share

- 2020-07: $22.75 per share

- 2020-08: $21.17 per share

- 2020-09: $19.26 per share

- 2020-10: $18.26 per share

- 2020-11: $19.97 per share

- 2020-12: $22.19 per share

- 2021-01: $22.63 per share

- 2021-02: $22.55 per share

- 2021-03: $26.66 per share

- 2021-04: $25.70 per share

- 2021-05: $27.35 per share

- 2021-06: $30.31 per share

- 2021-07: $31.49 per share

- 2021-08: $31.71 per share

- 2021-09: $29.22 per share

- 2021-10: $30.49 per share

- 2021-11: $24.61 per share

- 2021-12: $24.54 per share

- 2022-01: $24.75 per share

- 2022-02: $22.69 per share

- 2022-03: $23.25 per share

- 2022-04: $21.75 per share

- 2022-05: $20.84 per share

- 2022-06: $20.99 per share

- 2022-07: $22.74 per share

- 2022-08: $21.39 per share

- 2022-09: $20.72 per share

- 2022-10: $21.75 per share

- 2022-11: $23.56 per share

- 2022-12: $22.38 per share

- 2023-01: $23.23 per share

- 2023-02: $20.40 per share

- 2023-03: $21.62 per share

- 2023-04: $20.34 per share

- 2023-05: $23.02 per share

- 2023-06: $26.67 per share

- 2023-07: $26.95 per share

- 2023-08: $27.79 per share

- 2023-09: $27.23 per share

- 2023-10: $26.30 per share

- 2023-11: $28.18 per share

- 2023-12: $29.48 per share

- 2024-01: $31.68 per share

- 2024-02: $23.95 per share

- 2024-03: $24.30 per share

- 2024-04: $23.16 per share

- 2024-05: $22.53 per share

- 2024-06: $22.47 per share

- 2024-07: $23.92 per share

- 2024-08: $25.14 per share

- 2024-09: $25.43 per share

- 2024-10: $25.85 per share

- 2024-11: $27.66 per share

- 2024-12: $30.04 per share

- 2025-01: $32.15 per share

- 2025-02: $25.98 per share

- 2025-03: $26.71 per share

- 2025-04: $28.55 per share

- 2025-05: $28.86 per share

- 2025-06: $28.60 per share

- 2025-07: $27.17 per share

- 2025-08: $29.06 per share

- 2025-09: $30.21 per share

- 2025-10: $29.00 per share

- 2025-11: $29.88 per share

- 2025-12: $27.80 per share

- 2026-01: $25.48 per share

- 2026-02: $24.99 per share

- 2026-03: $22.72 per share

- 2026-04: $24.29 per share

- 2026-05: $26.88 per share

- 2026-06: $27.47 per share

- 2026-07: $32.56 per share

- 2026-08: $35.19 per share

- 2026-09: $33.85 per share

- 2026-10: $36.54 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $20.58 per share, central $22.90 per share, high $25.98 per share

- FY2024: low $23.94 per share, central $26.58 per share, high $30.10 per share

- FY2025: low $27.81 per share, central $31.14 per share, high $35.58 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:36.623Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467623/000146762326000008/dbx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.