# Dauch (DCH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DCH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:56.053Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $5.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $19.00 per share, central $21.20 per share, high $24.14 per share. Buy at or below the central value $21.20 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:56.053Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 70.3% at the stated quote. About 70.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 2.00×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: -0.05×

- FY2020: -0.08×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -6.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 13.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 23.6%

- FY2017: 15.5%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -9.8%

- FY2021: 8.1%

- FY2022: 7.7%

- FY2023: 4.2%

- FY2024: 6.1%

- FY2025: 3.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 27.71×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $52M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 62.54×

- FY2022: 5.93×

- FY2023: -7.65×

- FY2024: 7.25×

- FY2025: -9.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.5% vs 4.2%

- Per-share earnings: 3.13 to -0.17 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Market cap gain: -$716M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$718M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$3.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.17

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.08

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$474M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.13

- FY2017: $3.28

- FY2018: -$0.52

- FY2019: -$4.31

- FY2020: -$4.96

- FY2021: $0.05

- FY2022: $0.56

- FY2023: -$0.29

- FY2024: $0.30

- FY2025: -$0.17

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.86×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.8%

- FY2017: -3.9%

- FY2018: -11.0%

- FY2019: -15.7%

- FY2020: -17.2%

- FY2021: -9.4%

- FY2022: -7.0%

- FY2023: -8.0%

- FY2024: -8.3%

- FY2025: -6.5%

## Holders

- [Alex Roepers](https://gigainvestors.com/AIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 51% since Nov 2022 · sales -4.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:37.004Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 28.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -4.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1062231/000106223126000020/dch-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: $3.9B 

- FY2017: $6.3B 

- FY2018: $7.3B 

- FY2019: $6.5B 

- FY2020: $4.7B 

- FY2021: $5.2B 

- FY2022: $5.8B 

- FY2023: $6.1B 

- FY2024: $6.1B 

- FY2025: $5.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 10.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1062231/000106223126000020/dch-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 18.4% 

- FY2017: 17.9% 

- FY2018: 15.7% 

- FY2019: 13.8% 

- FY2020: 12.4% 

- FY2021: 14.0% 

- FY2022: 12.1% 

- FY2023: 10.3% 

- FY2024: 12.1% 

- FY2025: 10.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are USD 5.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1062231/000106223126000020/dch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 5836700000; grossProfit 625000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); DCH.US: Dauch Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies that supports electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles. It operates through two segments, Driveline and Metal Forming segments. The Driveline segment offers front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems for light trucks, sport utility vehicles, crossover vehicles, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles. The Metal Forming segment provides range of products, such as engine, transmission, driveline, and safety-critical components for traditional internal combustion engine and electric vehicle architectures, including light vehicles, commercial vehicles, and off-highway vehicles, as well as products for industrial markets. It operates in North America, Asia, Europe, and South America. Dauch Corporation was formerly known as American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Dauch Corporation in January 2026. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.3% to 12.1% during 2023–25; it earns 5.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1062231/000106223126000020/dch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.2359275336572254],[2017,0.15470490311448482],[2018,0.022877983723905173],[2019,-0.06795892755276668],[2020,-0.09776861053815863],[2021,0.08093379978471475],[2022,0.07707730259593065],[2023,0.04152230030116162],[2024,0.06092645802593772],[2025,0.03902314932587128]]; median 0.051224379163549674. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years; bought back USD 2.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 13530111.312960446; upkeep 209469888.68703955; owner earnings 233030111.31296045. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05806164377954336.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 100800000; upkeep 376900000; owner earnings 337100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2990210619994067.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 181200000; owner earnings 369000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 175400000; owner earnings 381000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 196700000; owner earnings 256900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 251100000; owner earnings 253600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1062231/000106223126000020/dch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 262300000; owner earnings 177500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1062231/000106223126000020/dch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 2800000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); DCH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.654 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 28.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 7.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.4009302376212144. Price 5.1; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.1520314547837485 → FY2025 1.4991554054054055. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $17.92 per share

- 2016-11: $15.66 per share

- 2016-12: $19.30 per share

- 2017-01: $20.40 per share

- 2017-02: $19.82 per share

- 2017-03: $18.78 per share

- 2017-04: $17.59 per share

- 2017-05: $15.11 per share

- 2017-06: $15.60 per share

- 2017-07: $14.74 per share

- 2017-08: $14.61 per share

- 2017-09: $17.58 per share

- 2017-10: $17.79 per share

- 2017-11: $17.95 per share

- 2017-12: $17.03 per share

- 2018-01: $17.65 per share

- 2018-02: $14.76 per share

- 2018-03: $15.22 per share

- 2018-04: $15.34 per share

- 2018-05: $15.82 per share

- 2018-06: $15.56 per share

- 2018-07: $16.72 per share

- 2018-08: $17.71 per share

- 2018-09: $17.44 per share

- 2018-10: $15.17 per share

- 2018-11: $12.45 per share

- 2018-12: $11.10 per share

- 2019-01: $14.78 per share

- 2019-02: $16.10 per share

- 2019-03: $14.31 per share

- 2019-04: $14.75 per share

- 2019-05: $10.11 per share

- 2019-06: $12.76 per share

- 2019-07: $12.07 per share

- 2019-08: $6.34 per share

- 2019-09: $8.22 per share

- 2019-10: $8.36 per share

- 2019-11: $9.86 per share

- 2019-12: $10.76 per share

- 2020-01: $9.24 per share

- 2020-02: $6.33 per share

- 2020-03: $3.61 per share

- 2020-04: $4.32 per share

- 2020-05: $7.11 per share

- 2020-06: $7.60 per share

- 2020-07: $7.06 per share

- 2020-08: $7.78 per share

- 2020-09: $5.77 per share

- 2020-10: $6.72 per share

- 2020-11: $7.96 per share

- 2020-12: $8.34 per share

- 2021-01: $8.81 per share

- 2021-02: $9.77 per share

- 2021-03: $9.66 per share

- 2021-04: $9.28 per share

- 2021-05: $11.20 per share

- 2021-06: $10.35 per share

- 2021-07: $9.69 per share

- 2021-08: $8.87 per share

- 2021-09: $8.81 per share

- 2021-10: $9.08 per share

- 2021-11: $8.86 per share

- 2021-12: $9.33 per share

- 2022-01: $8.14 per share

- 2022-02: $9.26 per share

- 2022-03: $7.76 per share

- 2022-04: $6.62 per share

- 2022-05: $8.11 per share

- 2022-06: $7.53 per share

- 2022-07: $8.91 per share

- 2022-08: $10.35 per share

- 2022-09: $6.83 per share

- 2022-10: $9.69 per share

- 2022-11: $10.41 per share

- 2022-12: $7.82 per share

- 2023-01: $8.87 per share

- 2023-02: $8.80 per share

- 2023-03: $7.81 per share

- 2023-04: $7.15 per share

- 2023-05: $6.75 per share

- 2023-06: $8.27 per share

- 2023-07: $9.45 per share

- 2023-08: $7.55 per share

- 2023-09: $7.26 per share

- 2023-10: $6.75 per share

- 2023-11: $6.96 per share

- 2023-12: $8.81 per share

- 2024-01: $8.09 per share

- 2024-02: $6.92 per share

- 2024-03: $7.36 per share

- 2024-04: $7.34 per share

- 2024-05: $7.64 per share

- 2024-06: $6.99 per share

- 2024-07: $7.43 per share

- 2024-08: $6.43 per share

- 2024-09: $6.18 per share

- 2024-10: $5.65 per share

- 2024-11: $6.61 per share

- 2024-12: $5.83 per share

- 2025-01: $5.23 per share

- 2025-02: $4.96 per share

- 2025-03: $4.07 per share

- 2025-04: $3.82 per share

- 2025-05: $4.39 per share

- 2025-06: $4.08 per share

- 2025-07: $4.45 per share

- 2025-08: $5.82 per share

- 2025-09: $6.01 per share

- 2025-10: $6.20 per share

- 2025-11: $6.57 per share

- 2025-12: $6.41 per share

- 2026-01: $7.97 per share

- 2026-02: $6.60 per share

- 2026-03: $5.93 per share

- 2026-04: $5.71 per share

- 2026-05: $6.64 per share

- 2026-06: $5.42 per share

- 2026-07: $5.65 per share

- 2026-08: $6.26 per share

- 2026-09: $5.22 per share

- 2026-10: $5.10 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $38.35 per share, central $42.92 per share, high $49.00 per share

- FY2017: low $38.29 per share, central $43.23 per share, high $49.81 per share

- FY2018: low $44.53 per share, central $54.50 per share, high $63.09 per share

- FY2019: low $37.77 per share, central $42.49 per share, high $48.76 per share

- FY2023: low $27.50 per share, central $30.82 per share, high $35.24 per share

- FY2024: low $27.69 per share, central $31.01 per share, high $35.42 per share

- FY2025: low $27.77 per share, central $30.91 per share, high $35.09 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1062231/000106223126000020/dch-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.