# Ducommun (DCO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DCO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:56.675Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $170.59 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $37.03 per share, central $41.93 per share, high $48.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value $41.93 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:56.675Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.6% at the stated quote. About 4.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.33×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 25.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.6%

- FY2017: 4.3%

- FY2018: 6.2%

- FY2019: 11.8%

- FY2020: 9.5%

- FY2021: 7.5%

- FY2022: 6.1%

- FY2023: 4.4%

- FY2024: 6.6%

- FY2025: 8.1%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.42×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $248M

- Net income, five-year total: $174M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 53.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 29.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 56.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.09×

- FY2022: 1.41×

- FY2023: 1.82×

- FY2024: 1.61×

- FY2025: 0.51×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.2% vs 6.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.74 to 1.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.6%

- Market cap gain: $1.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $278M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -5.1%

- Per-share value change: -$0.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.74

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.52

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $255M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $290M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.24

- FY2017: $1.74

- FY2018: $0.77

- FY2019: $2.75

- FY2020: $2.45

- FY2021: $11.06

- FY2022: $2.33

- FY2023: $1.14

- FY2024: $2.10

- FY2025: -$2.50

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.57×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.5%

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -5.7%

- FY2019: -2.3%

- FY2020: 2.0%

- FY2021: 13.9%

- FY2022: -0.4%

- FY2023: -1.4%

- FY2024: -0.2%

- FY2025: -0.3%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.1% a year for ten years · sales +4.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:37.175Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-19: DCO Q1 Earnings Call: Defense Growth Offsets Commercial Aerospace Weakness, Margin Expansion Continues ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dco-q1-earnings-call-defense-122335297.html))

- 2026-05-12: Ducommun (DCO) Reports Revenue Beat as Aerospace Demand Supports Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ducommun-dco-reports-revenue-beat-125319369.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30305/000162828026011952/dco-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $551M 

- FY2017: $558M 

- FY2018: $629M 

- FY2019: $721M 

- FY2020: $629M 

- FY2021: $645M 

- FY2022: $713M 

- FY2023: $757M 

- FY2024: $787M 

- FY2025: $825M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 26.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30305/000162828026011952/dco-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 19.3% 

- FY2017: 18.4% 

- FY2018: 19.5% 

- FY2019: 21.1% 

- FY2020: 21.9% 

- FY2021: 22.1% 

- FY2022: 20.3% 

- FY2023: 21.6% 

- FY2024: 25.1% 

- FY2025: 26.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are USD 824.8 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30305/000162828026011952/dco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 824839000; grossProfit 221615000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); DCO.US: Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing services for products and applications used in the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical, and other industries in the United States. It operates through two segments, Electronic Systems and Structural Systems. The Electronic Systems segment provides cable assemblies and interconnect systems; printed circuit board assemblies; electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical components and assemblies, as well as lightning diversion systems; and radar enclosures, aircraft avionics racks, shipboard communications and control enclosures, wire harnesses, interconnect systems, lightning diversion strips, surge suppressors, conformal shields, and other assemblies. This segment also supplies engineered products, including illuminated pushbutton switches and panels for aviation and test systems; microwave and millimeter switches and filters for radio frequency systems and test instrumentation; and motors and resolvers for motion control, as well as provides engineering services for aerospace system design, development, integration, and testing service. The Structural Systems segment designs, engineers, and manufactures complex contoured aerostructure components assemblies and supplies, including composite and metal bonded structures, precision profile extrusions, extruded assemblies, ammunition handling systems, seals, and aerodynamic systems; designs, engineers, and manufactures contoured aluminum, titanium, and Inconel aero structure components; structural assembly products, such as winglets, engine components, fuselage structural panels; aircraft wing spoilers, fuselage skins, rotor blades, flight control surfaces, engine nacelle components, feed and eject chutes, storage magazines, custom gun mounts. It serves commercial aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft, military and commercial rotary-wing aircraft, and space programs. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.6% to 26.9% during 2023–25; it earns 6.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 25.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30305/000162828026011952/dco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 26.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06551418686253578],[2017,0.04265133773330495],[2018,0.06191872814961378],[2019,0.11769406271402447],[2020,0.09463623155993289],[2021,0.07543095326741316],[2022,0.06147815889972143],[2023,0.04365053037081717],[2024,0.06644739526898479],[2025,0.08127368550169914]]; median 0.06598079106576028. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 20% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30305/000162828026011952/dco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.22072688340643898],[2022,0.20251158887187612],[2023,0.2155729518938113]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 5 of 10 years; bought back USD 3.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 17001000; owner earnings 31120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 1192881.9203746319; upkeep 26417118.079625368; owner earnings 16504881.920374632. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07227448982243646.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 17617000; owner earnings 16714000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 18290000; owner earnings 42476000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 12510000; owner earnings 45514000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 16863000; owner earnings 147062000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 19689000; owner earnings 40521000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 19522000; owner earnings 28977000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 14129000; owner earnings 50804000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,2472000],[2020,607000],[2021,4046999],[2022,1379000],[2023,166639000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30305/000162828026011952/dco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 3224000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); DCO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.388 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2648735824340981. Price 170.59; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -5.6419842491174075 → FY2025 -1.2671663766564047. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $19.04 per share

- 2016-11: $28.60 per share

- 2016-12: $25.56 per share

- 2017-01: $29.63 per share

- 2017-02: $30.81 per share

- 2017-03: $28.79 per share

- 2017-04: $29.39 per share

- 2017-05: $31.81 per share

- 2017-06: $31.58 per share

- 2017-07: $28.96 per share

- 2017-08: $27.50 per share

- 2017-09: $32.05 per share

- 2017-10: $32.97 per share

- 2017-11: $27.97 per share

- 2017-12: $28.45 per share

- 2018-01: $29.18 per share

- 2018-02: $28.14 per share

- 2018-03: $30.38 per share

- 2018-04: $29.09 per share

- 2018-05: $33.76 per share

- 2018-06: $33.09 per share

- 2018-07: $33.33 per share

- 2018-08: $40.69 per share

- 2018-09: $40.84 per share

- 2018-10: $37.16 per share

- 2018-11: $39.23 per share

- 2018-12: $36.32 per share

- 2019-01: $39.37 per share

- 2019-02: $42.43 per share

- 2019-03: $43.52 per share

- 2019-04: $40.58 per share

- 2019-05: $45.13 per share

- 2019-06: $45.07 per share

- 2019-07: $42.15 per share

- 2019-08: $41.18 per share

- 2019-09: $42.40 per share

- 2019-10: $49.58 per share

- 2019-11: $48.88 per share

- 2019-12: $50.53 per share

- 2020-01: $40.93 per share

- 2020-02: $44.65 per share

- 2020-03: $24.85 per share

- 2020-04: $28.24 per share

- 2020-05: $32.20 per share

- 2020-06: $34.87 per share

- 2020-07: $35.95 per share

- 2020-08: $37.37 per share

- 2020-09: $32.92 per share

- 2020-10: $32.90 per share

- 2020-11: $49.72 per share

- 2020-12: $53.70 per share

- 2021-01: $49.34 per share

- 2021-02: $54.40 per share

- 2021-03: $60.00 per share

- 2021-04: $58.93 per share

- 2021-05: $53.77 per share

- 2021-06: $54.56 per share

- 2021-07: $53.95 per share

- 2021-08: $52.70 per share

- 2021-09: $50.35 per share

- 2021-10: $48.39 per share

- 2021-11: $42.51 per share

- 2021-12: $46.77 per share

- 2022-01: $43.75 per share

- 2022-02: $50.51 per share

- 2022-03: $52.39 per share

- 2022-04: $51.07 per share

- 2022-05: $45.65 per share

- 2022-06: $43.04 per share

- 2022-07: $47.34 per share

- 2022-08: $44.00 per share

- 2022-09: $39.66 per share

- 2022-10: $47.21 per share

- 2022-11: $50.31 per share

- 2022-12: $49.96 per share

- 2023-01: $57.78 per share

- 2023-02: $53.80 per share

- 2023-03: $54.71 per share

- 2023-04: $50.00 per share

- 2023-05: $40.96 per share

- 2023-06: $43.57 per share

- 2023-07: $50.14 per share

- 2023-08: $45.47 per share

- 2023-09: $43.51 per share

- 2023-10: $47.84 per share

- 2023-11: $50.38 per share

- 2023-12: $52.06 per share

- 2024-01: $49.35 per share

- 2024-02: $47.72 per share

- 2024-03: $51.30 per share

- 2024-04: $54.09 per share

- 2024-05: $58.18 per share

- 2024-06: $58.06 per share

- 2024-07: $64.17 per share

- 2024-08: $65.08 per share

- 2024-09: $65.83 per share

- 2024-10: $58.79 per share

- 2024-11: $67.00 per share

- 2024-12: $63.66 per share

- 2025-01: $68.38 per share

- 2025-02: $58.62 per share

- 2025-03: $58.03 per share

- 2025-04: $57.32 per share

- 2025-05: $70.38 per share

- 2025-06: $82.63 per share

- 2025-07: $90.98 per share

- 2025-08: $91.22 per share

- 2025-09: $96.13 per share

- 2025-10: $91.75 per share

- 2025-11: $91.69 per share

- 2025-12: $95.13 per share

- 2026-01: $113.35 per share

- 2026-02: $123.59 per share

- 2026-03: $122.00 per share

- 2026-04: $141.93 per share

- 2026-05: $152.22 per share

- 2026-06: $185.21 per share

- 2026-07: $179.02 per share

- 2026-08: $171.42 per share

- 2026-09: $171.54 per share

- 2026-10: $170.59 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $21.42 per share, central $24.37 per share, high $28.30 per share

- FY2017: low $19.97 per share, central $22.72 per share, high $26.39 per share

- FY2018: low $17.44 per share, central $19.85 per share, high $23.05 per share

- FY2019: low $23.08 per share, central $27.46 per share, high $31.65 per share

- FY2020: low $37.83 per share, central $44.54 per share, high $51.26 per share

- FY2021: low $39.10 per share, central $43.77 per share, high $50.00 per share

- FY2022: low $39.69 per share, central $44.80 per share, high $51.61 per share

- FY2023: low $36.87 per share, central $41.68 per share, high $48.08 per share

- FY2024: low $38.41 per share, central $43.51 per share, high $50.30 per share

- FY2025: low $36.24 per share, central $40.97 per share, high $47.27 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30305/000162828026011952/dco-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.