# Deere & Company (DE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:57.752Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $650.67 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $301.23 per share, central $338.01 per share, high $386.98 per share. Buy at or below the central value $338.01 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:57.752Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.4% at the stated quote. About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.32×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.19×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 36.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.7%

- FY2018: 5.7%

- FY2019: 7.1%

- FY2020: 5.9%

- FY2021: 10.1%

- FY2022: 11.1%

- FY2023: 15.5%

- FY2024: 11.6%

- FY2025: 8.8%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 8.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.87×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $31B

- Net income, five-year total: $35B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 10.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 13.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 122.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.62×

- FY2025: 0.60×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.92×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.7% vs 11.6%

- Per-share earnings: 5.77 to 25.62 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.0%

- Market cap gain: $97B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $36B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 20.5%

- Per-share value change: $19.85

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $25.62

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.84

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $5.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $47B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.81

- FY2017: $6.68

- FY2018: $7.23

- FY2019: $10.15

- FY2020: $8.69

- FY2021: $18.99

- FY2022: $23.28

- FY2023: $34.63

- FY2024: $25.62

- FY2025: $18.50

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.48×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.21×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.9%

- FY2017: -0.1%

- FY2018: 0.8%

- FY2019: -0.2%

- FY2020: -6.3%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: 2.7%

- FY2023: 1.5%

- FY2024: -2.0%

- FY2025: -2.3%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Vinall](https://gigainvestors.com/RVC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.8% a year for ten years · sales -11.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:37.440Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-15: Deere beats second-quarter estimates on cost cuts, trims annual profit forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-cuts-lower-end-annual-101544967.html))

- 2025-08-14: Tariffs Take A Bite Out Of Deere Profit, Demand Challenges Hit Core Businesses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tariffs-bite-deere-profit-demand-142723854.html))

- 2026-02-19: Deere lifts full-year profit forecast as construction, sales rebound ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/deere-lifts-full-profit-forecast-183935575.html))

- 2026-05-21: Deere Tops Second-Quarter Estimates, Affirms Soft Full-Year Forecast Amid Farm-Sector Strains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/deere-tops-second-quarter-estimates-152311059.html))

- 2026-06-08: Deere Tariff Relief Reshapes Costs Margins And Competitive Standing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/deere-tariff-relief-reshapes-costs-220951019.html))

- 2026-08-22: Deere (DE) Is Up 6.3% After Raising 2026 Net Income Guidance - What's Changed ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/deere-6-3-raising-2026-021144027.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -11.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm; observed 2025-12-18.

- FY2016: $26B 

- FY2017: $29B 

- FY2018: $36B 

- FY2019: $38B 

- FY2020: $35B 

- FY2021: $43B 

- FY2022: $51B 

- FY2023: $60B 

- FY2024: $51B 

- FY2025: $45B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 36.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm; observed 2025-12-18.

- FY2016: 29.1% 

- FY2017: 30.0% 

- FY2018: 29.3% 

- FY2019: 29.6% 

- FY2020: 31.3% 

- FY2021: 31.9% 

- FY2022: 30.7% 

- FY2023: 37.0% 

- FY2024: 38.6% 

- FY2025: 36.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are USD 44.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm (filed 2025-12-18); FY2025: revenue 44665000000; grossProfit 16295000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DE.US: Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties. Deere & Company has a strategic partnership with Tarter USA to develop and produce flex wing rotary cutters. It also has strategic partnership with Yamaha Motor Corporation, Usa to co-develop future side-by-side vehicles. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered i

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.5% to 38.6% during 2023–25; it earns 8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm (filed 2025-12-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.042046215801556534],[2017,0.04712221668294146],[2018,0.056847940380378936],[2019,0.07131211875655115],[2020,0.05934628546792056],[2021,0.100927422290416],[2022,0.1113261341278406],[2023,0.1554544112986328],[2024,0.11627714497304462],[2025,0.08844216749017554]]; median 0.07987714312336334. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2955100000; owner earnings 128600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2017: growth capex 876300000; upkeep 1716000000; owner earnings 2159000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.40588235294117647.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2018: growth capex 1023100000; upkeep 1927000000; owner earnings 2368000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.43205236486486487.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2019: growth capex 732232502.4832201; upkeep 2716767497.51678; owner earnings 2555232502.48322. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28656198673569766.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2656000000; owner earnings 2213000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2021: growth capex 530000000; upkeep 2050000000; owner earnings 5963000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08888143551903405.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2022: growth capex 1893000000; upkeep 1895000000; owner earnings 7131000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2654606647034077.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2023: growth capex 2464000000; upkeep 2004000000; owner earnings 10166000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24237654928192012.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 4802000000; owner earnings 4416000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm (filed 2025-12-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4228000000; owner earnings 3028000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,761300000],[2017,764000000],[2018,805800000],[2019,943000000],[2020,956000000],[2021,1040000000],[2022,1313000000],[2023,1427000000],[2024,1605000000],[2025,1720000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm (filed 2025-12-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 1138000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.169 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We face risks associated with international, national, and regional trade laws, regulations, and policies" (SEC filing, Dec 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm (filed 2025-12-18); We face risks associated with international, national, and regional trade laws, regulations, and policies

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 22.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12797280025585345. Price 650.67; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.4770833333333333 → FY2025 11.144644828855355. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $88.30 per share

- 2016-11: $100.20 per share

- 2016-12: $103.04 per share

- 2017-01: $107.05 per share

- 2017-02: $109.49 per share

- 2017-03: $108.86 per share

- 2017-04: $111.61 per share

- 2017-05: $122.46 per share

- 2017-06: $123.59 per share

- 2017-07: $128.28 per share

- 2017-08: $115.93 per share

- 2017-09: $125.59 per share

- 2017-10: $132.88 per share

- 2017-11: $149.86 per share

- 2017-12: $156.51 per share

- 2018-01: $166.42 per share

- 2018-02: $160.87 per share

- 2018-03: $155.32 per share

- 2018-04: $135.33 per share

- 2018-05: $149.51 per share

- 2018-06: $139.80 per share

- 2018-07: $144.79 per share

- 2018-08: $143.80 per share

- 2018-09: $150.33 per share

- 2018-10: $135.44 per share

- 2018-11: $154.88 per share

- 2018-12: $149.17 per share

- 2019-01: $164.00 per share

- 2019-02: $164.04 per share

- 2019-03: $159.84 per share

- 2019-04: $165.63 per share

- 2019-05: $140.17 per share

- 2019-06: $165.71 per share

- 2019-07: $165.65 per share

- 2019-08: $154.91 per share

- 2019-09: $168.68 per share

- 2019-10: $174.14 per share

- 2019-11: $168.05 per share

- 2019-12: $173.26 per share

- 2020-01: $158.58 per share

- 2020-02: $156.48 per share

- 2020-03: $138.16 per share

- 2020-04: $145.06 per share

- 2020-05: $152.12 per share

- 2020-06: $157.15 per share

- 2020-07: $176.31 per share

- 2020-08: $210.06 per share

- 2020-09: $221.63 per share

- 2020-10: $225.91 per share

- 2020-11: $261.62 per share

- 2020-12: $269.05 per share

- 2021-01: $288.80 per share

- 2021-02: $349.12 per share

- 2021-03: $374.14 per share

- 2021-04: $370.85 per share

- 2021-05: $361.10 per share

- 2021-06: $352.71 per share

- 2021-07: $361.59 per share

- 2021-08: $378.03 per share

- 2021-09: $335.07 per share

- 2021-10: $342.31 per share

- 2021-11: $345.54 per share

- 2021-12: $342.89 per share

- 2022-01: $376.40 per share

- 2022-02: $360.02 per share

- 2022-03: $415.46 per share

- 2022-04: $377.55 per share

- 2022-05: $357.78 per share

- 2022-06: $299.47 per share

- 2022-07: $343.18 per share

- 2022-08: $365.25 per share

- 2022-09: $333.89 per share

- 2022-10: $395.82 per share

- 2022-11: $441.00 per share

- 2022-12: $428.76 per share

- 2023-01: $422.84 per share

- 2023-02: $419.24 per share

- 2023-03: $412.88 per share

- 2023-04: $378.02 per share

- 2023-05: $345.98 per share

- 2023-06: $405.19 per share

- 2023-07: $429.60 per share

- 2023-08: $410.94 per share

- 2023-09: $377.38 per share

- 2023-10: $365.36 per share

- 2023-11: $364.41 per share

- 2023-12: $399.87 per share

- 2024-01: $393.58 per share

- 2024-02: $365.05 per share

- 2024-03: $410.74 per share

- 2024-04: $391.41 per share

- 2024-05: $374.76 per share

- 2024-06: $373.63 per share

- 2024-07: $371.98 per share

- 2024-08: $385.74 per share

- 2024-09: $417.33 per share

- 2024-10: $404.69 per share

- 2024-11: $465.90 per share

- 2024-12: $423.70 per share

- 2025-01: $476.56 per share

- 2025-02: $480.79 per share

- 2025-03: $469.35 per share

- 2025-04: $463.56 per share

- 2025-05: $506.26 per share

- 2025-06: $508.49 per share

- 2025-07: $524.37 per share

- 2025-08: $478.64 per share

- 2025-09: $457.26 per share

- 2025-10: $461.63 per share

- 2025-11: $464.49 per share

- 2025-12: $465.57 per share

- 2026-01: $528.00 per share

- 2026-02: $629.71 per share

- 2026-03: $563.30 per share

- 2026-04: $589.87 per share

- 2026-05: $542.18 per share

- 2026-06: $634.33 per share

- 2026-07: $592.67 per share

- 2026-08: $654.91 per share

- 2026-09: $671.55 per share

- 2026-10: $650.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $59.38 per share, central $65.71 per share, high $74.13 per share

- FY2017: low $78.16 per share, central $85.01 per share, high $94.12 per share

- FY2018: low $76.86 per share, central $89.92 per share, high $102.88 per share

- FY2019: low $115.75 per share, central $158.42 per share, high $183.99 per share

- FY2020: low $108.29 per share, central $131.14 per share, high $149.43 per share

- FY2021: low $141.46 per share, central $180.69 per share, high $207.30 per share

- FY2022: low $157.13 per share, central $205.65 per share, high $238.35 per share

- FY2023: low $402.00 per share, central $550.72 per share, high $641.94 per share

- FY2024: low $351.48 per share, central $464.24 per share, high $539.23 per share

- FY2025: low $281.35 per share, central $315.68 per share, high $361.38 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:38.782Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm); period 2025-11-02, filed 2025-12-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.