# Dollar General (DG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:59.212Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $133.89 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $84.31 per share, central $101.69 per share, high $117.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value $101.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:59.212Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.05×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 32.8%

- FY2018: 35.8%

- FY2019: 35.5%

- FY2020: 13.0%

- FY2021: 19.1%

- FY2022: 15.9%

- FY2023: 14.0%

- FY2024: 9.6%

- FY2025: 6.8%

- FY2026: 9.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $8.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $9.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.88×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.70×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 35.5% vs 9.0%

- Per-share earnings: 4.58 to 6.85 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 5.1%

- Per-share value change: $2.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.58

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.85

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.11

- Average buyback yield: 4.2%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $350K

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $18B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 35.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $4.58

- FY2018: $5.63

- FY2019: $5.97

- FY2020: $6.64

- FY2021: $10.62

- FY2022: $10.17

- FY2023: $10.68

- FY2024: $7.55

- FY2025: $5.11

- FY2026: $6.85

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.40×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.65×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -2.1%

- FY2019: -4.2%

- FY2020: -2.3%

- FY2021: -4.7%

- FY2022: -1.8%

- FY2023: 1.5%

- FY2024: -2.4%

- FY2025: -6.0%

- FY2026: -6.9%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 48% since Nov 2022 · "Dollar General Shares Sink as Outlook Calls for Growth to Slow" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +5.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:37.850Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-04: Dollar General sees strong Q1 sales and EPS, and raises FY25 guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-general-sees-strong-q1-101406534.html))

- 2025-12-05: Dollar General Raises Guidance on Traffic Gains; Shrink Recapture Boosts Margins, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-general-raises-guidance-traffic-154947943.html))

- 2026-02-09: Dollar General's Shrink Reduction Is Now the Key Margin Tailwind ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-generals-shrink-reduction-now-140500904.html))

- 2026-03-12: Dollar General Shares Sink as Outlook Calls for Growth to Slow ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/32712861-bf6f-301c-8ea2-f9f15746d483/dollar-general-shares-sink-as.html))

- 2026-05-29: Dollar General Could Guide Conservatively Amid Cost Headwinds, Economic Pressure on Consumers, Oppenheimer Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dollar-general-could-guide-conservatively-152146396.html))

- 2026-06-02: Dollar General Raises Profit Outlook, Shares Jump Up To 5.8% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dollar-general-raises-profit-outlook-154253338.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-20.

- FY2017: $22B 

- FY2018: $23B 

- FY2019: $26B 

- FY2020: $28B 

- FY2021: $34B 

- FY2022: $34B 

- FY2023: $38B 

- FY2024: $39B 

- FY2025: $41B 

- FY2026: $43B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 30.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-20.

- FY2017: 30.8% 

- FY2018: 30.8% 

- FY2019: 30.5% 

- FY2020: 30.6% 

- FY2021: 31.8% 

- FY2022: 31.6% 

- FY2023: 31.2% 

- FY2024: 30.3% 

- FY2025: 29.6% 

- FY2026: 30.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in discount stores; annual sales are USD 42.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-20); FY2026: revenue 42724369000; grossProfit 13099689000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.6% to 30.7% during 2024–26; it earns 15% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 29.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-20); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 30.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.32782651107858696],[2018,0.3579738203850606],[2019,0.35451085946094957],[2020,0.12957846486205338],[2021,0.19071519586162394],[2022,0.15940793676151782],[2023,0.1395947566681357],[2024,0.09604302392098077],[2025,0.06832884375777265],[2026,0.09045486375590295]]; median 0.14950134671482676. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 32% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-20); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3176256596951199],[2022,0.315980833565334],[2023,0.31233031547769113]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 12.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 9.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2017: growth capex 180365000; upkeep 379931000; owner earnings 1251133000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14416133216852245.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2018: growth capex 168541423.2701509; upkeep 477914576.7298491; owner earnings 1465276423.270151. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11502363690122458.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2019: growth capex 243327957.1612723; upkeep 491052042.8387277; owner earnings 1552553957.1612723. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15672753661082356.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2020: growth capex 280039000; upkeep 504804000; owner earnings 1712555000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1635211715828105.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2021: growth capex 453726000; upkeep 574237000; owner earnings 2655050000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17089169695485962.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2022: growth capex 140596489.83337307; upkeep 929863510.1666269; owner earnings 2110684489.833373. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06661179845239323.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2023: growth capex 835705000; upkeep 724877000; owner earnings 2415989000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.34590596232019266.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2024: growth capex 358641572.29840446; upkeep 1341580427.7015955; owner earnings 1168486572.2984045. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3069282786818501.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2025: growth capex 338185000; upkeep 971703000; owner earnings 1125253000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3005413004897565.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-20); FY2026: growth capex 194844000; upkeep 1046318000; owner earnings 1512311000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1288385788372894.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); Incremental return on capital 0.09072259229367337, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); Dividend observations: [[2017,281135000],[2018,282931000],[2019,306523000],[2020,327568000],[2021,355926000],[2022,392188000],[2023,493726000],[2024,517979000],[2025,518983000],[2026,519510000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.27999999999999997 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Risks associated with or faced by our suppliers could adversely affect our financial performance." (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-20); Risks associated with or faced by our suppliers could adversely affect our financial performance.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0734924992019933. Price 133.89; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 4.14202066957477 → FY2026 6.848800347804034. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $69.09 per share

- 2016-11: $77.32 per share

- 2016-12: $74.07 per share

- 2017-01: $73.82 per share

- 2017-02: $73.02 per share

- 2017-03: $69.73 per share

- 2017-04: $72.71 per share

- 2017-05: $73.39 per share

- 2017-06: $72.09 per share

- 2017-07: $75.16 per share

- 2017-08: $72.56 per share

- 2017-09: $81.05 per share

- 2017-10: $80.84 per share

- 2017-11: $88.08 per share

- 2017-12: $93.01 per share

- 2018-01: $103.12 per share

- 2018-02: $94.59 per share

- 2018-03: $93.55 per share

- 2018-04: $96.53 per share

- 2018-05: $87.48 per share

- 2018-06: $98.60 per share

- 2018-07: $98.15 per share

- 2018-08: $107.73 per share

- 2018-09: $109.30 per share

- 2018-10: $111.38 per share

- 2018-11: $110.99 per share

- 2018-12: $108.08 per share

- 2019-01: $115.43 per share

- 2019-02: $118.46 per share

- 2019-03: $119.30 per share

- 2019-04: $126.09 per share

- 2019-05: $127.28 per share

- 2019-06: $135.16 per share

- 2019-07: $134.02 per share

- 2019-08: $156.09 per share

- 2019-09: $158.94 per share

- 2019-10: $160.34 per share

- 2019-11: $157.36 per share

- 2019-12: $155.98 per share

- 2020-01: $153.41 per share

- 2020-02: $150.30 per share

- 2020-03: $151.01 per share

- 2020-04: $175.30 per share

- 2020-05: $191.51 per share

- 2020-06: $190.51 per share

- 2020-07: $190.40 per share

- 2020-08: $201.88 per share

- 2020-09: $209.62 per share

- 2020-10: $208.71 per share

- 2020-11: $218.58 per share

- 2020-12: $210.30 per share

- 2021-01: $194.61 per share

- 2021-02: $188.99 per share

- 2021-03: $202.62 per share

- 2021-04: $214.75 per share

- 2021-05: $202.96 per share

- 2021-06: $216.39 per share

- 2021-07: $232.64 per share

- 2021-08: $222.91 per share

- 2021-09: $212.14 per share

- 2021-10: $221.52 per share

- 2021-11: $221.30 per share

- 2021-12: $235.83 per share

- 2022-01: $208.48 per share

- 2022-02: $198.34 per share

- 2022-03: $222.63 per share

- 2022-04: $237.53 per share

- 2022-05: $220.34 per share

- 2022-06: $245.44 per share

- 2022-07: $248.43 per share

- 2022-08: $237.42 per share

- 2022-09: $239.86 per share

- 2022-10: $255.05 per share

- 2022-11: $255.68 per share

- 2022-12: $246.25 per share

- 2023-01: $233.60 per share

- 2023-02: $216.30 per share

- 2023-03: $210.46 per share

- 2023-04: $221.46 per share

- 2023-05: $201.09 per share

- 2023-06: $169.78 per share

- 2023-07: $168.86 per share

- 2023-08: $138.50 per share

- 2023-09: $105.80 per share

- 2023-10: $119.04 per share

- 2023-11: $131.12 per share

- 2023-12: $135.95 per share

- 2024-01: $132.07 per share

- 2024-02: $145.31 per share

- 2024-03: $156.06 per share

- 2024-04: $139.19 per share

- 2024-05: $136.91 per share

- 2024-06: $132.23 per share

- 2024-07: $120.39 per share

- 2024-08: $82.97 per share

- 2024-09: $84.57 per share

- 2024-10: $80.04 per share

- 2024-11: $77.27 per share

- 2024-12: $75.82 per share

- 2025-01: $71.06 per share

- 2025-02: $74.18 per share

- 2025-03: $87.93 per share

- 2025-04: $93.69 per share

- 2025-05: $97.25 per share

- 2025-06: $114.38 per share

- 2025-07: $104.90 per share

- 2025-08: $108.76 per share

- 2025-09: $103.35 per share

- 2025-10: $98.66 per share

- 2025-11: $109.49 per share

- 2025-12: $132.77 per share

- 2026-01: $143.43 per share

- 2026-02: $156.24 per share

- 2026-03: $118.73 per share

- 2026-04: $115.88 per share

- 2026-05: $110.61 per share

- 2026-06: $115.11 per share

- 2026-07: $127.05 per share

- 2026-08: $126.75 per share

- 2026-09: $119.58 per share

- 2026-10: $133.89 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $55.37 per share, central $69.97 per share, high $81.71 per share

- FY2018: low $66.51 per share, central $95.01 per share, high $111.61 per share

- FY2019: low $74.88 per share, central $106.97 per share, high $125.66 per share

- FY2020: low $88.59 per share, central $126.55 per share, high $148.66 per share

- FY2021: low $116.01 per share, central $164.52 per share, high $192.77 per share

- FY2022: low $121.74 per share, central $173.90 per share, high $204.28 per share

- FY2023: low $140.29 per share, central $200.41 per share, high $235.41 per share

- FY2024: low $133.20 per share, central $171.12 per share, high $200.00 per share

- FY2025: low $128.46 per share, central $150.39 per share, high $174.84 per share

- FY2026: low $80.92 per share, central $97.98 per share, high $113.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:40.277Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm); period 2026-01-30, filed 2026-03-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.